Team Expected WP% vs Avg Opponent Seed Region Round of 32% Sweet 16% Elite 8% Final Four% Champ Game% Winner% Winner Rank Duke 0.971 1 East 99% 84% 66% 48%…
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Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/16/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location,…
Candidate Trump Harris Chance of Winning Election 68% 32% Average Electoral Votes 282 256 Median Electoral Votes 287 251 Mode Electoral Votes 312 226 National Popular Vote 49.0% 50.0% Chance…
2/20/23 College Basketball Rankings Update: Preseason Favorites Kentucky and Gonzaga Round Into Form
Despite being ranked #2 and #4 in the AP Preseason poll, for most of the season Gonzaga and Kentucky have struggled mightily to match that preseason hype. That changed in…
Despite losing two close games to Vanderbilt and Missouri, Tennessee remains at #2 in the rankings, although the gap between Houston and Tennessee for the number one spot has grown….
After Tennessee briefly surpassed them last week, Houston retakes the #1 spot this week following a 13 point Tennessee loss at Florida. Otherwise, the top 7 teams remain steady, with…
While the top 4 teams have been the same for several weeks now (Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, and Alabama), this week brings a shuffle to top of the order. After a…
Party Democratic Republican Senate Majority Probability 24% 76% Average Outcome 48.2 51.8 Median Outcome 48 52 Most Common Outcome 48 52 Democratic 95th Percentile Outcome 52 48 Democratic 75th Percentile…
With one half of MLB’s regular season in the books, we have a good sample size of games to evaluate the strength of the various teams so far. While many…
While I was unfortunately not able to post my original March Madness projections to Nothing But Numbers in time for the tournament, my model correctly forecast several upsets that other…