This week there are more changes than usual to the rankings, because for the first time recency has been incorporated into the model. More recent games are weighted more heavily…
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Author: Noah Baron
2/20/23 College Basketball Rankings Update: Preseason Favorites Kentucky and Gonzaga Round Into Form
Despite being ranked #2 and #4 in the AP Preseason poll, for most of the season Gonzaga and Kentucky have struggled mightily to match that preseason hype. That changed in…
Despite losing two close games to Vanderbilt and Missouri, Tennessee remains at #2 in the rankings, although the gap between Houston and Tennessee for the number one spot has grown….
After Tennessee briefly surpassed them last week, Houston retakes the #1 spot this week following a 13 point Tennessee loss at Florida. Otherwise, the top 7 teams remain steady, with…
While the top 4 teams have been the same for several weeks now (Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, and Alabama), this week brings a shuffle to top of the order. After a…
Data includes all division 1 games through Friday, 3/17/23. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location,…
Party Democratic Republican Senate Majority Probability 24% 76% Average Outcome 48.2 51.8 Median Outcome 48 52 Most Common Outcome 48 52 Democratic 95th Percentile Outcome 52 48 Democratic 75th Percentile…
Rankings include all division 1 games through March 13th. Team Ranking Expected WP% vs. Average Opponent Change From Last Week Gonzaga 1 94.0% 0 Houston 2 92.7% 0 Arizona 3…
With one half of MLB’s regular season in the books, we have a good sample size of games to evaluate the strength of the various teams so far. While many…
While I was unfortunately not able to post my original March Madness projections to Nothing But Numbers in time for the tournament, my model correctly forecast several upsets that other…