Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/23/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week Seed
Duke ACC 1 0.973 0.717 54 0 1
Houston Big 12 2 0.967 0.790 14 0 1
Auburn SEC 3 0.957 0.826 2 0 1
Florida SEC 4 0.955 0.765 28 0 1
Alabama SEC 5 0.938 0.845 1 0 2
Tennessee SEC 6 0.938 0.792 13 0 2
Texas Tech Big 12 7 0.934 0.750 40 0 3
Gonzaga WCC 8 0.932 0.679 67 +1 8
Maryland Big 10 9 0.931 0.715 57 +2 4
Michigan St. Big 10 10 0.931 0.765 27 0 2
Iowa St. Big 12 11 0.926 0.759 33 -3 3
Arizona Big 12 12 0.925 0.814 5 +1 4
St. John’s (NY) Big East 13 0.922 0.708 58 -1 2
Wisconsin Big 10 14 0.908 0.768 25 0 3
BYU Big 12 15 0.905 0.745 44 0 6
Kentucky SEC 16 0.904 0.814 6 +1 3
Purdue Big 10 17 0.904 0.808 8 +1 4
UCLA Big 10 18 0.901 0.751 38 +7 7
Illinois Big 10 19 0.896 0.795 11 +2 6
Michigan Big 10 20 0.896 0.802 10 +7 5
Kansas Big 12 21 0.894 0.817 4 -5 7
Clemson ACC 22 0.887 0.683 66 -3 5
Texas A&M SEC 23 0.885 0.802 9 -1 4
Baylor Big 12 24 0.884 0.823 3 0 9
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 25 0.884 0.656 75 -2 7
Louisville ACC 26 0.883 0.729 51 -6 8
Ole Miss SEC 27 0.881 0.792 12 +4 6
Oregon Big 10 28 0.880 0.784 16 +5 5
UConn Big East 29 0.880 0.715 56 0 8
Missouri SEC 30 0.880 0.729 52 -4 6
Marquette Big East 31 0.876 0.749 41 -3 7
North Carolina ACC 32 0.873 0.765 26 0 11
VCU A-10 33 0.863 0.535 114 -3 11
Creighton Big East 34 0.859 0.761 32 +3 9
Mississippi St. SEC 35 0.858 0.775 21 0 8
UC San Diego Big West 36 0.853 0.446 174 -2 12
Arkansas SEC 37 0.853 0.768 24 +5 10
Ohio St. Big 10 38 0.852 0.789 15 +1  
Colorado St. MWC 39 0.850 0.648 81 -1 12
New Mexico MWC 40 0.845 0.662 73 +1 10
Georgia SEC 41 0.845 0.763 29 -5 9
Xavier Big East 42 0.843 0.715 55 -2 11
West Virginia Big 12 43 0.832 0.782 19 0  
Cincinnati Big 12 44 0.828 0.738 48 +4  
Texas SEC 45 0.825 0.732 49 -1  
Boise St. MWC 46 0.823 0.633 85 -1  
Oklahoma SEC 47 0.823 0.761 31 0 9
Indiana Big 10 48 0.823 0.780 20 +2  
Northwestern Big 10 49 0.822 0.758 34 0  
SMU ACC 50 0.815 0.637 83 -4  
Vanderbilt SEC 51 0.815 0.741 46 +2 10
Santa Clara WCC 52 0.807 0.603 91 +2  
Villanova Big East 53 0.803 0.673 71 +2  
Utah St. MWC 54 0.800 0.633 86 -3 10
Drake MVC 55 0.797 0.542 110 +5 11
Penn St. Big 10 56 0.796 0.685 65 0  
Nebraska Big 10 57 0.792 0.750 39 +1  
San Diego St. MWC 58 0.790 0.696 62 -6  
Memphis AAC 59 0.786 0.650 80 -2 5
Pittsburgh ACC 60 0.784 0.701 61 -1  
Southern California Big 10 61 0.781 0.762 30 +2  
McNeese Southland 62 0.781 0.473 157 -1 12
Iowa Big 10 63 0.780 0.738 47 +1  
Kansas St. Big 12 64 0.776 0.746 43 -2  
Utah Big 12 65 0.766 0.718 53 0  
UCF Big 12 66 0.756 0.771 23 +1  
Colorado Big 12 67 0.744 0.783 18 +3  
Arizona St. Big 12 68 0.742 0.812 7 +3  
San Francisco WCC 69 0.741 0.593 96 -1  
Rutgers Big 10 70 0.740 0.756 35 +3  
Liberty C-USA 71 0.739 0.487 145 -5 12
UC Irvine Big West 72 0.738 0.470 160 -3  
Wake Forest ACC 73 0.738 0.679 68 -1  
TCU Big 12 74 0.735 0.784 17 0  
North Texas AAC 75 0.727 0.513 132 +1  
Butler Big East 76 0.727 0.744 45 -1  
South Carolina SEC 77 0.721 0.773 22 +1  
Nevada MWC 78 0.717 0.625 88 +2  
George Mason A-10 79 0.711 0.531 116 0  
Yale Ivy 80 0.709 0.421 208 +3 13
Dayton A-10 81 0.704 0.615 90 -4  
Stanford ACC 82 0.703 0.651 79 0  
Bradley MVC 83 0.700 0.520 125 +7  
Georgetown Big East 84 0.697 0.635 84 0  
Saint Joseph’s A-10 85 0.695 0.524 122 -4  
Oregon St. WCC 86 0.694 0.536 111 -1  
LSU SEC 87 0.690 0.732 50 0  
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 88 0.689 0.444 177 +7  
High Point Big South 89 0.688 0.381 276 -3 13
Minnesota Big 10 90 0.687 0.747 42 -1  
Florida St. ACC 91 0.684 0.654 78 -3  
Oklahoma St. Big 12 92 0.676 0.753 37 +4  
UNI MVC 93 0.659 0.527 120 +4  
Lipscomb A-Sun 94 0.658 0.404 239 -3 14
UNLV MWC 95 0.657 0.632 87 -1  
Providence Big East 96 0.655 0.706 60 +2  
Notre Dame ACC 97 0.652 0.667 72 +2  
UAB AAC 98 0.649 0.498 140 +7  
Troy Sunbelt 99 0.642 0.449 173 +1 14
Grand Canyon WAC 100 0.638 0.426 199 -7 13
Georgia Tech ACC 101 0.638 0.647 82 -9  
Virginia ACC 102 0.626 0.689 64 -1  
Loyola Chicago A-10 103 0.621 0.503 139 +3  
DePaul Big East 104 0.618 0.677 69 +3  
California ACC 105 0.617 0.655 77 -2  
Utah Valley WAC 106 0.613 0.413 222 -2  
UNCW CAA 107 0.611 0.411 224 +5 14
Washington Big 10 108 0.610 0.753 36 +5  
Syracuse ACC 109 0.607 0.696 63 0  
Chattanooga Southern 110 0.607 0.421 209 +11  
Akron MAC 111 0.603 0.414 219 -1 13
Fla. Atlantic AAC 112 0.602 0.559 100 -1  
Jacksonville St. C-USA 113 0.599 0.520 127 +9  
NC State ACC 114 0.599 0.655 76 +1  
Saint Louis A-10 115 0.590 0.563 99 -13  
Kent St. MAC 116 0.587 0.430 193 +25  
North Ala. A-Sun 117 0.586 0.376 278 -1  
Middle Tenn. C-USA 118 0.586 0.549 105 -4  
George Washington A-10 119 0.581 0.439 185 -1  
Washington St. WCC 120 0.579 0.597 94 -1  
South Alabama Sunbelt 121 0.575 0.393 260 +5  
St. Bonaventure A-10 122 0.574 0.510 136 -14  
Louisiana Tech C-USA 123 0.571 0.497 141 -3  
Belmont MVC 124 0.571 0.510 135 +1  
Wofford Southern 125 0.569 0.463 162 +3 15
CSUN Big West 126 0.565 0.415 218 -9  
New Mexico St. C-USA 127 0.564 0.524 123 -3  
Northern Colo. Big Sky 128 0.563 0.396 252 -5  
Tulane AAC 129 0.562 0.467 161 0  
Illinois St. MVC 130 0.559 0.503 138 +4  
Robert Morris Horizon 131 0.558 0.377 277 +8 15
Murray St. MVC 132 0.556 0.519 128 +5  
Samford Southern 133 0.555 0.428 196 -3  
Wichita St. AAC 134 0.552 0.550 104 -3  
Cornell Ivy 135 0.552 0.406 234 -3  
South Dakota St. Summit 136 0.551 0.458 166 0  
Duquesne A-10 137 0.550 0.536 112 -10  
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 138 0.550 0.389 267 -3  
Kennesaw St. C-USA 139 0.549 0.542 109 -6  
Furman Southern 140 0.546 0.439 188 -2  
North Dakota St. Summit 141 0.540 0.413 220 -1  
Milwaukee Horizon 142 0.533 0.410 226 0  
Seattle U WAC 143 0.521 0.471 158 0  
ETSU Southern 144 0.517 0.385 272 +4  
Virginia Tech ACC 145 0.515 0.662 74 +1  
UC Santa Barbara Big West 146 0.511 0.405 237 -1  
Davidson A-10 147 0.509 0.514 130 0  
UNC Greensboro Southern 148 0.508 0.407 230 +1  
Omaha Summit 149 0.506 0.442 182 -5 15
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 150 0.501 0.413 221 +3  
LMU (CA) WCC 151 0.501 0.569 98 -1  
Miami (OH) MAC 152 0.498 0.366 286 +5  
Rhode Island A-10 153 0.496 0.478 154 -1  
Col. of Charleston CAA 154 0.493 0.422 207 +2  
Montana Big Sky 155 0.490 0.457 167 -1 14
Towson CAA 156 0.489 0.421 211 +3  
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 157 0.489 0.397 249 +5  
Bryant Am. East 158 0.489 0.327 308 -3 15
UTEP C-USA 159 0.488 0.531 118 -1  
Winthrop Big South 160 0.482 0.408 228 +1  
UIC MVC 161 0.481 0.531 117 +4  
San Jose St. MWC 162 0.480 0.595 95 -2  
Cleveland St. Horizon 163 0.478 0.398 247 +4  
Temple AAC 164 0.477 0.487 147 0  
Lamar University Southland 165 0.474 0.433 192 +1  
Nicholls Southland 166 0.472 0.438 190 +2  
Western Ky. C-USA 167 0.469 0.548 106 +2  
Radford Big South 168 0.467 0.423 205 +2  
Cal Poly Big West 169 0.467 0.484 150 -6  
Marshall Sunbelt 170 0.467 0.390 266 +2  
FGCU A-Sun 171 0.467 0.395 255 0  
East Carolina AAC 172 0.466 0.483 152 +1  
James Madison Sunbelt 173 0.466 0.445 175 +2  
UC Riverside Big West 174 0.464 0.514 131 -23  
Miami (FL) ACC 175 0.455 0.675 70 +1  
California Baptist WAC 176 0.455 0.437 191 -2  
UTSA AAC 177 0.450 0.518 129 +1  
Oakland Horizon 178 0.449 0.480 153 +4  
South Carolina St. MEAC 179 0.446 0.285 352 0  
Boston College ACC 180 0.444 0.622 89 -3  
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 181 0.444 0.405 236 -1  
Sam Houston C-USA 182 0.443 0.552 103 -1  
Southern Ill. MVC 183 0.441 0.545 107 +3  
Indiana St. MVC 184 0.441 0.493 144 +1  
Norfolk St. MEAC 185 0.439 0.341 301 -2 16
App State Sunbelt 186 0.437 0.407 231 +5  
Ohio MAC 187 0.435 0.396 251 +6  
Drexel CAA 188 0.435 0.362 289 -4  
Jacksonville A-Sun 189 0.434 0.423 206 -2  
South Fla. AAC 190 0.432 0.495 142 0  
Rice AAC 191 0.431 0.442 183 +1  
Montana St. Big Sky 192 0.430 0.425 201 -4  
Wyoming MWC 193 0.428 0.601 93 -4  
Valparaiso MVC 194 0.428 0.510 134 0  
Central Conn. St. NEC 195 0.422 0.224 364 0  
Dartmouth Ivy 196 0.418 0.360 290 0  
Youngstown St. Horizon 197 0.417 0.374 281 +4  
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 198 0.416 0.313 322 -1  
Queens (NC) A-Sun 199 0.416 0.390 265 +1  
Princeton Ivy 200 0.415 0.443 178 -1  
Merrimack MAAC 201 0.414 0.350 296 -3  
Seton Hall Big East 202 0.409 0.707 59 +1  
Southeastern La. Southland 203 0.408 0.373 282 +1  
Portland St. Big Sky 204 0.405 0.357 292 -2  
Texas St. Sunbelt 205 0.404 0.405 238 +3  
Central Mich. MAC 206 0.397 0.429 195 +5  
Pepperdine WCC 207 0.397 0.556 101 -1  
Idaho St. Big Sky 208 0.395 0.387 270 +1  
Massachusetts A-10 209 0.395 0.508 137 -4  
Hampton CAA 210 0.394 0.409 227 0  
UNC Asheville Big South 211 0.392 0.396 254 +2  
Northeastern CAA 212 0.389 0.375 280 +2  
Longwood Big South 213 0.387 0.389 268 +2  
Northern Ky. Horizon 214 0.384 0.427 197 +3  
Elon CAA 215 0.383 0.383 274 -8  
La Salle A-10 216 0.383 0.535 115 -4  
Missouri St. MVC 217 0.378 0.523 124 +2  
Bucknell Patriot 218 0.376 0.336 305 0  
SIUE OVC 219 0.375 0.317 314 -3 16
Campbell CAA 220 0.375 0.375 279 0  
Hofstra CAA 221 0.372 0.405 235 0  
Quinnipiac MAAC 222 0.371 0.312 324 0  
Wright St. Horizon 223 0.368 0.406 233 +5  
Brown Ivy 224 0.365 0.393 261 +2  
South Dakota Summit 225 0.364 0.410 225 0  
Hawaii Big West 226 0.360 0.474 156 -3  
Kansas City Summit 227 0.360 0.430 194 0  
Northwestern St. Southland 228 0.360 0.461 163 +3  
Fordham A-10 229 0.360 0.520 126 -5  
Delaware CAA 230 0.359 0.406 232 -1  
Maine Am. East 231 0.357 0.289 346 -1  
Presbyterian Big South 232 0.354 0.398 248 0  
Southern U. SWAC 233 0.353 0.297 335 +2  
Little Rock OVC 234 0.350 0.310 328 +3  
Toledo MAC 235 0.349 0.439 186 +7  
Abilene Christian WAC 236 0.349 0.438 189 -3  
UIW Southland 237 0.347 0.359 291 +7  
UT Arlington WAC 238 0.345 0.424 203 -2  
William & Mary CAA 239 0.344 0.402 245 +2  
Charlotte AAC 240 0.344 0.486 149 -1  
Evansville MVC 241 0.343 0.525 121 +2  
CSU Bakersfield Big West 242 0.342 0.443 179 -8  
Richmond A-10 243 0.337 0.552 102 -5  
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 244 0.334 0.344 300 -4  
UTRGV Southland 245 0.330 0.411 223 +4  
Tulsa AAC 246 0.329 0.451 171 0  
Tennessee St. OVC 247 0.323 0.289 347 +5  
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 248 0.323 0.366 285 +6  
FIU C-USA 249 0.321 0.474 155 +4  
North Dakota Summit 250 0.321 0.470 159 +1  
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 251 0.320 0.340 302 +4 16
Manhattan MAAC 252 0.320 0.291 343 -7  
Fresno St. MWC 253 0.319 0.602 92 -3  
UC Davis Big West 254 0.317 0.460 165 -7  
Vermont Am. East 255 0.317 0.312 326 +1  
Georgia St. Sunbelt 256 0.315 0.426 198 +4  
Siena MAAC 257 0.314 0.316 315 0  
Harvard Ivy 258 0.312 0.403 242 0  
Monmouth CAA 259 0.312 0.423 204 0  
Jackson St. SWAC 260 0.311 0.347 299 +1  
American Patriot 261 0.310 0.324 310 -13  
Colgate Patriot 262 0.309 0.334 306 0  
Iona MAAC 263 0.305 0.309 329 0  
North Florida A-Sun 264 0.305 0.420 213 0  
Gardner-Webb Big South 265 0.304 0.419 214 +2  
UMass Lowell Am. East 266 0.303 0.310 327 0  
Portland WCC 267 0.302 0.545 108 -2  
Alabama St. SWAC 268 0.300 0.297 334 +3 16
Mercer Southern 269 0.298 0.382 275 0  
Sacred Heart MAAC 270 0.296 0.294 340 -2  
Ball St. MAC 271 0.294 0.337 304 -1  
Idaho Big Sky 272 0.287 0.404 240 0  
Eastern Mich. MAC 273 0.285 0.366 287 +1  
Austin Peay A-Sun 274 0.283 0.421 210 -1  
Texas Southern SWAC 275 0.274 0.296 337 0  
Houston Christian Southland 276 0.273 0.420 212 +1  
Navy Patriot 277 0.270 0.278 356 -1  
SFA Southland 278 0.268 0.418 215 +3  
Marist MAAC 279 0.267 0.247 361 +1  
Pacific WCC 280 0.267 0.535 113 -2  
Western Mich. MAC 281 0.266 0.399 246 +1  
UAlbany Am. East 282 0.266 0.286 349 -3  
Old Dominion Sunbelt 283 0.260 0.393 257 0  
Bowling Green MAC 284 0.255 0.347 298 +2  
Lehigh Patriot 285 0.253 0.325 309 0  
Denver Summit 286 0.250 0.425 200 -2  
UT Martin OVC 287 0.249 0.303 332 +1  
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 288 0.248 0.334 307 +3  
San Diego WCC 289 0.246 0.528 119 -2  
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 290 0.246 0.440 184 -1  
Lafayette Patriot 291 0.245 0.286 350 -1  
VMI Southern 292 0.243 0.390 264 +2  
LIU NEC 293 0.243 0.246 362 -1  
Weber St. Big Sky 294 0.241 0.415 217 -1  
Columbia Ivy 295 0.238 0.353 293 +4  
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 296 0.237 0.418 216 +6  
Saint Peter’s MAAC 297 0.237 0.290 345 +1  
Penn Ivy 298 0.237 0.439 187 -3  
Charleston So. Big South 299 0.235 0.453 170 +1  
Utah Tech WAC 300 0.232 0.456 168 -3  
IU Indy Horizon 301 0.232 0.396 253 +2  
Tennessee Tech OVC 302 0.230 0.309 331 +2  
Long Beach St. Big West 303 0.229 0.487 146 -7  
Tarleton St. WAC 304 0.229 0.493 143 -3  
Delaware St. MEAC 305 0.226 0.281 355 0  
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 306 0.220 0.285 351 +1  
Air Force MWC 307 0.219 0.590 97 -1  
Boston U. Patriot 308 0.219 0.290 344 0  
Howard MEAC 309 0.218 0.338 303 +1  
UMBC Am. East 310 0.217 0.295 339 -1  
Rider MAAC 311 0.217 0.316 316 0  
Oral Roberts Summit 312 0.216 0.486 148 0  
Loyola Maryland Patriot 313 0.213 0.284 354 0  
Louisiana Sunbelt 314 0.208 0.450 172 +3  
N.C. Central MEAC 315 0.208 0.314 320 -1  
Grambling SWAC 316 0.207 0.314 318 -1  
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 317 0.206 0.309 330 -1  
Southern Utah WAC 318 0.200 0.443 180 0  
Eastern Ill. OVC 319 0.199 0.351 294 0  
Niagara MAAC 320 0.198 0.291 342 0  
Holy Cross Patriot 321 0.197 0.312 325 0  
Florida A&M SWAC 322 0.197 0.350 295 0  
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 323 0.196 0.349 297 +1  
Army West Point Patriot 324 0.193 0.314 321 +6  
Binghamton Am. East 325 0.193 0.273 357 -2  
Lindenwood OVC 326 0.192 0.318 312 -1  
Green Bay Horizon 327 0.188 0.442 181 +1  
Alcorn SWAC 328 0.186 0.324 311 -1  
Morgan St. MEAC 329 0.185 0.295 338 -3  
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 330 0.182 0.454 169 -1  
N.C. A&T CAA 331 0.176 0.395 256 +1  
Stony Brook CAA 332 0.175 0.396 250 -1  
Stonehill NEC 333 0.173 0.257 359 0  
Morehead St. OVC 334 0.173 0.317 313 +1  
Southern Ind. OVC 335 0.171 0.296 336 +1  
Bellarmine A-Sun 336 0.170 0.393 259 -2  
Detroit Mercy Horizon 337 0.168 0.424 202 +1  
Fairfield MAAC 338 0.166 0.314 317 -1  
Central Ark. A-Sun 339 0.163 0.407 229 0  
USC Upstate Big South 340 0.157 0.444 176 0  
Western Caro. Southern 341 0.157 0.461 164 +1  
Western Ill. OVC 342 0.156 0.292 341 +1  
Buffalo MAC 343 0.156 0.402 244 +1  
West Ga. A-Sun 344 0.155 0.404 241 -3  
Mercyhurst NEC 345 0.153 0.254 360 0  
Sacramento St. Big Sky 346 0.146 0.390 263 0  
New Orleans Southland 347 0.146 0.483 151 0  
NIU MAC 348 0.139 0.387 271 +1  
ULM Sunbelt 349 0.138 0.389 269 +1  
Stetson A-Sun 350 0.138 0.392 262 -2  
Wagner NEC 351 0.134 0.241 363 0  
Le Moyne NEC 352 0.122 0.287 348 0  
NJIT Am. East 353 0.111 0.301 333 0  
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 354 0.108 0.513 133 0  
UMES MEAC 355 0.108 0.393 258 0  
Prairie View SWAC 356 0.103 0.314 319 +1  
Canisius MAAC 357 0.103 0.369 284 -1  
The Citadel Southern 358 0.101 0.402 243 0  
New Hampshire Am. East 359 0.096 0.312 323 0  
Alabama A&M SWAC 360 0.090 0.262 358 0  
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.082 0.364 288 0  
Chicago St. NEC 362 0.078 0.371 283 0  
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 363 0.071 0.285 353 0  
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.017 0.383 273 0