Team Expected WP% vs Avg Opponent Seed Region Round of 32% Sweet 16% Elite 8% Final Four% Champ Game% Winner% Winner Rank
Duke 0.971 1 East 99% 84% 66% 48% 32% 21.2% 1
Houston 0.967 1 Midwest 98% 69% 51% 35% 22% 14.6% 2
Auburn 0.960 1 South 98% 69% 55% 40% 25% 13.6% 3
Florida 0.958 1 West 96% 73% 51% 33% 21% 11.1% 4
Texas Tech 0.937 3 West 91% 60% 35% 18% 10% 4.5% 5
Tennessee 0.939 2 Midwest 93% 66% 40% 20% 9% 4.4% 6
Alabama 0.941 2 East 91% 61% 38% 17% 9% 4.3% 7
Michigan St. 0.929 2 South 93% 61% 37% 17% 8% 3.3% 8
Maryland 0.927 4 West 86% 60% 28% 14% 7% 2.8% 9
St. John’s (NY) 0.925 2 West 93% 58% 31% 15% 7% 2.7% 10
Arizona 0.923 4 East 88% 58% 19% 10% 4% 1.9% 11
Iowa St. 0.910 3 South 83% 49% 25% 10% 4% 1.5% 12
Gonzaga 0.929 8 Midwest 68% 24% 14% 7% 3% 1.4% 13
Wisconsin 0.910 3 East 91% 47% 23% 8% 3% 1.3% 14
Purdue 0.899 4 Midwest 80% 45% 17% 9% 3% 1.0% 15
Kentucky 0.899 3 Midwest 83% 43% 21% 8% 3% 1.0% 16
Texas A&M 0.893 4 South 78% 41% 13% 6% 2% 0.9% 17
Illinois 0.894 6 Midwest 60% 35% 17% 7% 2% 0.8% 18
Kansas 0.900 7 West 63% 29% 13% 5% 2% 0.7% 19
BYU 0.904 6 East 59% 33% 15% 5% 2% 0.7% 20
Louisville 0.895 8 South 67% 24% 13% 6% 2% 0.7% 21
Clemson 0.895 5 Midwest 71% 40% 12% 5% 2% 0.6% 22
Missouri 0.889 6 West 68% 30% 13% 5% 2% 0.6% 23
Michigan 0.889 5 South 57% 32% 10% 4% 2% 0.5% 24
Saint Mary’s (CA) 0.893 7 East 63% 27% 12% 4% 1% 0.5% 25
Marquette 0.884 7 South 61% 26% 12% 4% 2% 0.4% 26
UCLA 0.890 7 Midwest 65% 24% 11% 3% 1% 0.4% 27
North Carolina 0.879 11 South 52% 25% 11% 4% 1% 0.4% 28
Baylor 0.892 9 East 57% 10% 5% 2% 1% 0.3% 29
UConn 0.876 8 West 60% 18% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% 30
Ole Miss 0.869 6 South 48% 22% 9% 3% 1% 0.3% 31
VCU 0.872 11 East 41% 19% 8% 2% 1% 0.2% 32
Oregon 0.866 5 East 68% 31% 6% 2% 1% 0.2% 33
Xavier 0.852 11 Midwest 40% 19% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% 34
Colorado St. 0.846 12 West 59% 23% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% 35
UC San Diego 0.857 12 South 43% 21% 5% 2% 1% 0.1% 36
Mississippi St. 0.860 8 East 43% 6% 3% 1% 0% 0.1% 37
Georgia 0.859 9 Midwest 32% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0.1% 38
Creighton 0.852 9 South 33% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0.1% 39
New Mexico 0.838 10 South 39% 12% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% 40
Arkansas 0.838 10 West 37% 12% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% 41
Oklahoma 0.829 9 West 40% 9% 3% 1% 0% 0.1% 42
Vanderbilt 0.815 10 East 37% 11% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% 43
Utah St. 0.816 10 Midwest 35% 9% 3% 1% 0% 0.0% 44
Memphis 0.792 5 West 41% 12% 3% 1% 0% 0.0% 45
Drake 0.786 11 West 32% 9% 2% 1% 0% 0.0% 46
McNeese 0.782 12 Midwest 29% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0.0% 47
Liberty 0.769 12 East 32% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% 48
Yale 0.712 13 South 22% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% 49
Lipscomb 0.676 14 South 17% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% 50
High Point 0.691 13 Midwest 20% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% 51
Grand Canyon 0.666 13 West 14% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0.0% 52
Troy 0.653 14 Midwest 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 53
Akron 0.618 13 East 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 54
UNCW 0.607 14 West 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 55
Robert Morris 0.546 15 East 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 56
Wofford 0.565 15 Midwest 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 57
Omaha 0.527 15 West 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 58
Bryant 0.499 15 South 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 59
Montana 0.497 14 East 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 60
Norfolk St. 0.444 16 West 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 61
SIUE 0.385 16 Midwest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 62
Alabama St. 0.291 16 South 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 64
Mount St. Mary’s 0.336 16 East 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 63

Note: Iowa State’s rating has been lowered due to injuries.