Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/16/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week Seed
Duke ACC 1 0.971 0.726 53 0 1
Houston Big 12 2 0.967 0.796 11 0 1
Auburn SEC 3 0.960 0.836 2 0 1
Florida SEC 4 0.958 0.771 24 0 1
Alabama SEC 5 0.941 0.850 1 +1 2
Tennessee SEC 6 0.939 0.797 10 +1 2
Texas Tech Big 12 7 0.937 0.756 35 -2 3
Iowa St. Big 12 8 0.930 0.760 30 +2 3
Gonzaga WCC 9 0.929 0.662 75 0 8
Michigan St. Big 10 10 0.929 0.767 26 -2 2
Maryland Big 10 11 0.928 0.712 56 0 4
St. John’s (NY) Big East 12 0.925 0.713 55 +2 2
Arizona Big 12 13 0.923 0.819 3 -1 4
Wisconsin Big 10 14 0.910 0.767 25 +4 3
BYU Big 12 15 0.905 0.738 46 +1 6
Kansas Big 12 16 0.900 0.818 5 +1 7
Kentucky SEC 17 0.899 0.818 4 -4 3
Purdue Big 10 18 0.899 0.811 8 -3 4
Clemson ACC 19 0.895 0.687 65 +4 5
Louisville ACC 20 0.895 0.729 52 +2 8
Illinois Big 10 21 0.894 0.787 16 -2 6
Texas A&M SEC 22 0.893 0.803 9 -1 4
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 23 0.893 0.640 85 +1 7
Baylor Big 12 24 0.892 0.814 7 +3 9
UCLA Big 10 25 0.890 0.737 48 -5 7
Missouri SEC 26 0.889 0.729 51 0 6
Michigan Big 10 27 0.889 0.795 12 +3 5
Marquette Big East 28 0.883 0.749 40 -3 7
UConn Big East 29 0.876 0.702 61 -1 8
VCU A-10 30 0.875 0.532 118 -1 11
Ole Miss SEC 31 0.868 0.787 17 +1 6
North Carolina ACC 32 0.868 0.766 27 +4 11
Oregon Big 10 33 0.867 0.779 19 0 5
UC San Diego Big West 34 0.862 0.443 183 +5 12
Mississippi St. SEC 35 0.860 0.774 23 +2 8
Georgia SEC 36 0.859 0.760 32 -5 9
Creighton Big East 37 0.853 0.750 39 -3 9
Colorado St. MWC 38 0.851 0.640 84 +5 12
Ohio St. Big 10 39 0.850 0.787 13 -4  
Xavier Big East 40 0.849 0.706 60 -2 11
New Mexico MWC 41 0.842 0.649 79 -1 10
Arkansas SEC 42 0.838 0.760 31 0 10
West Virginia Big 12 43 0.833 0.784 18 -2  
Texas SEC 44 0.831 0.732 50 +8 11
Boise St. MWC 45 0.830 0.644 81 +1  
SMU ACC 46 0.830 0.642 83 +8  
Oklahoma SEC 47 0.830 0.761 28 +4 9
Cincinnati Big 12 48 0.829 0.742 44 -3  
Northwestern Big 10 49 0.821 0.758 34 0  
Indiana Big 10 50 0.821 0.778 20 -6  
Utah St. MWC 51 0.821 0.630 88 -3 10
San Diego St. MWC 52 0.819 0.695 64 -5 11
Vanderbilt SEC 53 0.815 0.738 45 -3 10
Santa Clara WCC 54 0.808 0.613 91 +1  
Villanova Big East 55 0.805 0.677 70 -2  
Penn St. Big 10 56 0.794 0.684 67 +1  
Memphis AAC 57 0.791 0.645 80 -1 5
Nebraska Big 10 58 0.790 0.749 41 0  
Pittsburgh ACC 59 0.786 0.707 59 0  
Drake MVC 60 0.786 0.507 139 0 11
McNeese Southland 61 0.782 0.440 185 +2 12
Kansas St. Big 12 62 0.780 0.750 38 -1  
Southern California Big 10 63 0.779 0.760 29 +2  
Iowa Big 10 64 0.779 0.737 47 0  
Utah Big 12 65 0.768 0.721 54 -3  
Liberty C-USA 66 0.767 0.476 159 0 12
UCF Big 12 67 0.761 0.774 22 +5  
San Francisco WCC 68 0.757 0.599 96 -1  
UC Irvine Big West 69 0.750 0.476 158 -1  
Colorado Big 12 70 0.749 0.787 15 +9  
Arizona St. Big 12 71 0.744 0.815 6 -2  
Wake Forest ACC 72 0.743 0.684 66 -2  
Rutgers Big 10 73 0.739 0.754 36 -2  
TCU Big 12 74 0.737 0.787 14 0  
Butler Big East 75 0.729 0.747 42 0  
North Texas AAC 76 0.727 0.508 138 -3  
Dayton A-10 77 0.725 0.626 90 -1  
South Carolina SEC 78 0.725 0.776 21 0  
George Mason A-10 79 0.724 0.535 116 +8  
Nevada MWC 80 0.723 0.634 87 0  
Saint Joseph’s A-10 81 0.716 0.534 117 -4  
Stanford ACC 82 0.712 0.663 73 +2  
Yale Ivy 83 0.712 0.405 238 -2 13
Georgetown Big East 84 0.699 0.639 86 -1  
Oregon St. WCC 85 0.698 0.543 112 +1  
High Point Big South 86 0.691 0.364 288 +2 13
LSU SEC 87 0.691 0.735 49 -5  
Florida St. ACC 88 0.689 0.661 76 -3  
Minnesota Big 10 89 0.686 0.746 43 0  
Bradley MVC 90 0.682 0.512 133 +2  
Lipscomb A-Sun 91 0.676 0.386 274 +3 14
Georgia Tech ACC 92 0.673 0.655 78 +6  
Grand Canyon WAC 93 0.668 0.415 219 +6 13
UNLV MWC 94 0.668 0.642 82 -3  
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 95 0.665 0.429 194 -5  
Oklahoma St. Big 12 96 0.662 0.759 33 -3  
UNI MVC 97 0.659 0.516 131 0  
Providence Big East 98 0.658 0.710 58 -3  
Notre Dame ACC 99 0.657 0.674 71 -3  
Troy Sunbelt 100 0.649 0.427 202 0 14
Virginia ACC 101 0.635 0.697 63 0  
Saint Louis A-10 102 0.628 0.570 99 0  
California ACC 103 0.626 0.663 74 +2  
Utah Valley WAC 104 0.626 0.410 228 +4  
UAB AAC 105 0.625 0.483 153 +11  
Loyola Chicago A-10 106 0.623 0.508 136 +5  
DePaul Big East 107 0.622 0.680 68 +6  
St. Bonaventure A-10 108 0.616 0.520 127 -1  
Syracuse ACC 109 0.616 0.702 62 -5  
Akron MAC 110 0.613 0.391 267 +8 13
Fla. Atlantic AAC 111 0.611 0.555 103 -8  
UNCW CAA 112 0.608 0.394 262 -6 14
Washington Big 10 113 0.605 0.751 37 -1  
Middle Tenn. C-USA 114 0.605 0.552 105 -5  
NC State ACC 115 0.604 0.661 77 0  
North Ala. A-Sun 116 0.595 0.371 282 +1  
CSUN Big West 117 0.592 0.419 214 -3  
George Washington A-10 118 0.592 0.450 171 -8  
Washington St. WCC 119 0.584 0.603 95 +3  
Louisiana Tech C-USA 120 0.579 0.505 140 0  
Chattanooga Southern 121 0.578 0.408 235 0  
Jacksonville St. C-USA 122 0.573 0.516 130 +1  
Northern Colo. Big Sky 123 0.573 0.392 264 +8  
New Mexico St. C-USA 124 0.573 0.531 120 -5  
Belmont MVC 125 0.572 0.511 134 0  
South Alabama Sunbelt 126 0.572 0.390 268 -2  
Duquesne A-10 127 0.567 0.549 108 -1  
Wofford Southern 128 0.566 0.444 182 -1 15
Tulane AAC 129 0.566 0.469 161 +12  
Samford Southern 130 0.564 0.419 212 -2  
Wichita St. AAC 131 0.559 0.551 106 +6  
Cornell Ivy 132 0.558 0.410 229 +7  
Kennesaw St. C-USA 133 0.558 0.549 109 +5  
Illinois St. MVC 134 0.557 0.508 137 -2  
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 135 0.556 0.395 257 -2  
South Dakota St. Summit 136 0.555 0.465 163 0  
Murray St. MVC 137 0.555 0.518 129 -2  
Furman Southern 138 0.549 0.429 193 -9  
Robert Morris Horizon 139 0.547 0.355 294 +1 15
North Dakota St. Summit 140 0.545 0.420 211 +2  
Kent St. MAC 141 0.540 0.416 217 -11  
Milwaukee Horizon 142 0.532 0.410 231 +3  
Seattle U WAC 143 0.531 0.480 155 -9  
Omaha Summit 144 0.529 0.428 197 0 15
UC Santa Barbara Big West 145 0.525 0.419 213 +6  
Virginia Tech ACC 146 0.522 0.668 72 0  
Davidson A-10 147 0.519 0.524 123 +1  
ETSU Southern 148 0.518 0.386 273 +2  
UNC Greensboro Southern 149 0.508 0.410 233 +4  
LMU (CA) WCC 150 0.508 0.576 98 +4  
UC Riverside Big West 151 0.508 0.514 132 -4  
Rhode Island A-10 152 0.506 0.489 149 -9  
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 153 0.502 0.414 221 -1  
Montana Big Sky 154 0.501 0.447 178 +21 14
Bryant Am. East 155 0.501 0.311 329 +10 15
Col. of Charleston CAA 156 0.498 0.428 199 0  
Miami (OH) MAC 157 0.496 0.364 290 +6  
UTEP C-USA 158 0.495 0.540 114 -1  
Towson CAA 159 0.495 0.425 205 -10  
San Jose St. MWC 160 0.494 0.605 94 0  
Winthrop Big South 161 0.488 0.412 225 -3  
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 162 0.486 0.397 252 -3  
Cal Poly Big West 163 0.485 0.499 143 +10  
Temple AAC 164 0.480 0.491 147 -9  
UIC MVC 165 0.477 0.530 121 +3  
Lamar University Southland 166 0.477 0.435 189 +4  
Cleveland St. Horizon 167 0.477 0.396 254 -6  
Nicholls Southland 168 0.473 0.438 186 -4  
Western Ky. C-USA 169 0.472 0.554 104 -7  
Radford Big South 170 0.472 0.427 201 -1  
FGCU A-Sun 171 0.472 0.400 244 0  
Marshall Sunbelt 172 0.467 0.389 269 0  
East Carolina AAC 173 0.467 0.485 151 -7  
California Baptist WAC 174 0.466 0.449 174 -7  
James Madison Sunbelt 175 0.465 0.445 180 +2  
Miami (FL) ACC 176 0.459 0.680 69 +3  
Boston College ACC 177 0.453 0.630 89 +4  
UTSA AAC 178 0.453 0.520 128 -2  
South Carolina St. MEAC 179 0.452 0.289 350 +1  
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 180 0.450 0.411 227 +3  
Sam Houston C-USA 181 0.449 0.559 102 -7  
Oakland Horizon 182 0.449 0.479 156 +2  
Norfolk St. MEAC 183 0.443 0.320 310 -5 16
Drexel CAA 184 0.442 0.367 284 +2  
Indiana St. MVC 185 0.440 0.492 146 +3  
Southern Ill. MVC 186 0.440 0.545 111 +6  
Jacksonville A-Sun 187 0.439 0.429 195 +7  
Montana St. Big Sky 188 0.437 0.433 191 -1  
Wyoming MWC 189 0.437 0.610 93 +2  
South Fla. AAC 190 0.436 0.499 144 +3  
App State Sunbelt 191 0.435 0.407 237 +5  
Rice AAC 192 0.432 0.444 181 -3  
Ohio MAC 193 0.432 0.395 259 -3  
Valparaiso MVC 194 0.427 0.509 135 +4  
Central Conn. St. NEC 195 0.427 0.228 364 -10  
Dartmouth Ivy 196 0.425 0.365 287 -14  
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 197 0.419 0.314 325 +4  
Merrimack MAAC 198 0.419 0.355 293 +1  
Princeton Ivy 199 0.418 0.448 175 +8  
Queens (NC) A-Sun 200 0.416 0.396 255 +3  
Youngstown St. Horizon 201 0.416 0.373 279 -1  
Portland St. Big Sky 202 0.413 0.365 286 -7  
Seton Hall Big East 203 0.412 0.711 57 +1  
Southeastern La. Southland 204 0.408 0.373 280 +1  
Massachusetts A-10 205 0.407 0.520 126 -3  
Pepperdine WCC 206 0.404 0.563 101 +4  
Elon CAA 207 0.403 0.393 263 +2  
Texas St. Sunbelt 208 0.402 0.404 240 0  
Idaho St. Big Sky 209 0.402 0.394 261 -12  
Hampton CAA 210 0.401 0.414 220 -4  
Central Mich. MAC 211 0.396 0.429 196 0  
La Salle A-10 212 0.395 0.547 110 +10  
UNC Asheville Big South 213 0.395 0.399 246 0  
Northeastern CAA 214 0.393 0.380 276 -2  
Longwood Big South 215 0.389 0.392 265 +1  
SIUE OVC 216 0.385 0.289 349 -1 16
Northern Ky. Horizon 217 0.385 0.427 200 -3  
Bucknell Patriot 218 0.381 0.340 302 -1  
Missouri St. MVC 219 0.378 0.524 125 0  
Campbell CAA 220 0.377 0.379 277 +1  
Hofstra CAA 221 0.377 0.410 230 -1  
Quinnipiac MAAC 222 0.376 0.317 317 -4  
Hawaii Big West 223 0.371 0.487 150 +4  
Fordham A-10 224 0.371 0.532 119 +21  
South Dakota Summit 225 0.370 0.417 216 -1  
Brown Ivy 226 0.370 0.398 249 -3  
Kansas City Summit 227 0.367 0.437 188 -1  
Wright St. Horizon 228 0.365 0.404 239 +1  
Delaware CAA 229 0.364 0.411 226 +13  
Maine Am. East 230 0.362 0.295 341 +3  
Northwestern St. Southland 231 0.362 0.463 164 +1  
Presbyterian Big South 232 0.361 0.396 253 -2  
Abilene Christian WAC 233 0.359 0.447 176 -2  
CSU Bakersfield Big West 234 0.355 0.457 167 +1  
Southern U. SWAC 235 0.354 0.299 336 -7  
UT Arlington WAC 236 0.352 0.432 192 -11  
Little Rock OVC 237 0.349 0.311 330 -1  
Richmond A-10 238 0.349 0.564 100 +2  
Charlotte AAC 239 0.349 0.491 148 +5  
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 240 0.348 0.349 298 -3  
William & Mary CAA 241 0.348 0.407 236 -3  
Toledo MAC 242 0.346 0.437 187 +5  
Evansville MVC 243 0.343 0.524 124 -2  
UIW Southland 244 0.339 0.362 291 -1  
Manhattan MAAC 245 0.334 0.293 344 -11  
Tulsa AAC 246 0.332 0.453 169 +5  
UC Davis Big West 247 0.330 0.475 160 -1  
American Patriot 248 0.329 0.329 306 +14 16
UTRGV Southland 249 0.329 0.412 224 0  
Fresno St. MWC 250 0.328 0.612 92 0  
North Dakota Summit 251 0.327 0.477 157 +1  
Tennessee St. OVC 252 0.327 0.291 346 -4  
FIU C-USA 253 0.326 0.480 154 +3  
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 254 0.324 0.367 285 -1  
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 255 0.323 0.317 316 +14 16
Vermont Am. East 256 0.322 0.316 322 -17  
Siena MAAC 257 0.318 0.321 309 -3  
Harvard Ivy 258 0.318 0.408 234 -1  
Monmouth CAA 259 0.318 0.428 198 -4  
Georgia St. Sunbelt 260 0.316 0.426 204 -2  
Jackson St. SWAC 261 0.315 0.350 297 +12  
Colgate Patriot 262 0.312 0.338 303 -3  
Iona MAAC 263 0.312 0.313 327 +2  
North Florida A-Sun 264 0.309 0.427 203 -1  
Portland WCC 265 0.309 0.550 107 -5  
UMass Lowell Am. East 266 0.308 0.315 323 -5  
Gardner-Webb Big South 267 0.306 0.422 209 -3  
Sacred Heart MAAC 268 0.301 0.298 338 +2  
Mercer Southern 269 0.297 0.382 275 -1  
Ball St. MAC 270 0.294 0.337 304 +1  
Alabama St. SWAC 271 0.294 0.279 356 +3 16
Idaho Big Sky 272 0.293 0.413 222 -5  
Austin Peay A-Sun 273 0.288 0.425 206 -1  
Eastern Mich. MAC 274 0.285 0.364 289 +1  
Texas Southern SWAC 275 0.278 0.300 334 +1  
Navy Patriot 276 0.276 0.283 355 -10  
Houston Christian Southland 277 0.273 0.421 210 0  
Pacific WCC 278 0.273 0.542 113 +2  
UAlbany Am. East 279 0.270 0.291 347 0  
Marist MAAC 280 0.269 0.251 361 +1  
SFA Southland 281 0.266 0.417 215 +1  
Western Mich. MAC 282 0.264 0.397 251 +2  
Old Dominion Sunbelt 283 0.262 0.394 260 0  
Denver Summit 284 0.258 0.434 190 +3  
Lehigh Patriot 285 0.256 0.328 307 +1  
Bowling Green MAC 286 0.253 0.347 300 -8  
San Diego WCC 287 0.253 0.537 115 +1  
UT Martin OVC 288 0.251 0.305 332 +1  
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 289 0.250 0.449 172 +3  
Lafayette Patriot 290 0.250 0.290 348 0  
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 291 0.249 0.336 305 -6  
LIU NEC 292 0.247 0.250 362 -1  
Weber St. Big Sky 293 0.246 0.423 208 0  
VMI Southern 294 0.244 0.391 266 0  
Penn Ivy 295 0.242 0.445 179 0  
Long Beach St. Big West 296 0.240 0.501 142 +1  
Utah Tech WAC 297 0.240 0.467 162 -1  
Saint Peter’s MAAC 298 0.240 0.294 342 0  
Columbia Ivy 299 0.239 0.357 292 +1  
Charleston So. Big South 300 0.238 0.459 166 -1  
Tarleton St. WAC 301 0.236 0.502 141 0  
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 302 0.235 0.416 218 0  
IU Indy Horizon 303 0.231 0.396 256 0  
Tennessee Tech OVC 304 0.231 0.312 328 0  
Delaware St. MEAC 305 0.229 0.285 354 0  
Air Force MWC 306 0.225 0.599 97 +7  
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 307 0.224 0.289 351 -1  
Boston U. Patriot 308 0.222 0.294 343 0  
UMBC Am. East 309 0.221 0.300 333 +2  
Howard MEAC 310 0.221 0.343 301 -1  
Rider MAAC 311 0.221 0.320 312 -4  
Oral Roberts Summit 312 0.219 0.492 145 -2  
Loyola Maryland Patriot 313 0.216 0.289 352 +1  
N.C. Central MEAC 314 0.210 0.318 315 -2  
Grambling SWAC 315 0.209 0.316 320 +11  
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 316 0.208 0.313 326 +6 16
Louisiana Sunbelt 317 0.207 0.449 173 -1  
Southern Utah WAC 318 0.204 0.452 170 -3  
Eastern Ill. OVC 319 0.202 0.353 296 -1  
Niagara MAAC 320 0.201 0.295 340 -1  
Holy Cross Patriot 321 0.200 0.316 319 -1  
Florida A&M SWAC 322 0.199 0.354 295 -5  
Binghamton Am. East 323 0.196 0.277 357 -2  
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 324 0.195 0.348 299 -1  
Lindenwood OVC 325 0.193 0.320 311 0  
Morgan St. MEAC 326 0.188 0.299 335 +5  
Alcorn SWAC 327 0.188 0.327 308 -3  
Green Bay Horizon 328 0.187 0.441 184 -1  
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 329 0.183 0.455 168 -1  
Army West Point Patriot 330 0.180 0.315 324 0  
Stony Brook CAA 331 0.180 0.402 243 -2  
N.C. A&T CAA 332 0.178 0.400 245 0  
Stonehill NEC 333 0.174 0.260 359 +2  
Bellarmine A-Sun 334 0.174 0.399 248 0  
Morehead St. OVC 335 0.173 0.319 314 +1  
Southern Ind. OVC 336 0.172 0.299 337 +1  
Fairfield MAAC 337 0.169 0.319 313 -4  
Detroit Mercy Horizon 338 0.167 0.424 207 0  
Central Ark. A-Sun 339 0.166 0.413 223 0  
USC Upstate Big South 340 0.159 0.447 177 +1  
West Ga. A-Sun 341 0.159 0.410 232 +2  
Western Caro. Southern 342 0.158 0.462 165 -2  
Western Ill. OVC 343 0.158 0.295 339 -1  
Buffalo MAC 344 0.156 0.404 241 +1  
Mercyhurst NEC 345 0.156 0.257 360 -1  
Sacramento St. Big Sky 346 0.150 0.399 247 0  
New Orleans Southland 347 0.146 0.484 152 0  
Stetson A-Sun 348 0.141 0.398 250 0  
NIU MAC 349 0.139 0.386 272 0  
ULM Sunbelt 350 0.138 0.389 270 0  
Wagner NEC 351 0.136 0.245 363 0  
Le Moyne NEC 352 0.124 0.292 345 0  
NJIT Am. East 353 0.113 0.306 331 0  
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 354 0.112 0.526 122 0  
UMES MEAC 355 0.109 0.395 258 0  
Canisius MAAC 356 0.104 0.373 281 0  
Prairie View SWAC 357 0.103 0.316 321 0  
The Citadel Southern 358 0.101 0.403 242 0  
New Hampshire Am. East 359 0.098 0.317 318 0  
Alabama A&M SWAC 360 0.090 0.265 358 0  
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.084 0.369 283 0  
Chicago St. NEC 362 0.080 0.377 278 0  
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 363 0.072 0.288 353 0  
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.017 0.387 271 0