Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/9/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Duke ACC 1 0.976 0.719 50 0
Houston Big 12 2 0.967 0.793 10 +1
Auburn SEC 3 0.963 0.834 2 -1
Florida SEC 4 0.954 0.754 35 0
Texas Tech Big 12 5 0.943 0.746 40 +2
Alabama SEC 6 0.942 0.847 1 0
Tennessee SEC 7 0.939 0.782 16 -2
Michigan St. Big 10 8 0.931 0.762 24 +2
Gonzaga WCC 9 0.929 0.654 78 -1
Iowa St. Big 12 10 0.929 0.754 34 -1
Maryland Big 10 11 0.924 0.700 61 +1
Arizona Big 12 12 0.919 0.806 9 -1
Kentucky SEC 13 0.915 0.816 5 +5
St. John’s (NY) Big East 14 0.912 0.704 58 0
Purdue Big 10 15 0.912 0.812 7 +1
BYU Big 12 16 0.911 0.719 51 -1
Kansas Big 12 17 0.909 0.817 4 +3
Wisconsin Big 10 18 0.905 0.752 37 -5
Illinois Big 10 19 0.904 0.784 15 +2
UCLA Big 10 20 0.902 0.733 47 +5
Texas A&M SEC 21 0.902 0.806 8 +6
Louisville ACC 22 0.900 0.711 57 +2
Clemson ACC 23 0.900 0.676 70 -4
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 24 0.898 0.636 85 -1
Marquette Big East 25 0.893 0.740 43 -3
Missouri SEC 26 0.891 0.716 52 -9
Baylor Big 12 27 0.888 0.813 6 +1
UConn Big East 28 0.876 0.696 63 +6
VCU A-10 29 0.875 0.524 127 -3
Michigan Big 10 30 0.871 0.785 14 -1
Georgia SEC 31 0.868 0.761 26 +5
Ole Miss SEC 32 0.866 0.779 17 0
Oregon Big 10 33 0.866 0.775 22 0
Creighton Big East 34 0.861 0.745 41 +3
Ohio St. Big 10 35 0.860 0.792 11 -4
North Carolina ACC 36 0.856 0.761 25 +8
Mississippi St. SEC 37 0.856 0.777 21 -2
Xavier Big East 38 0.852 0.701 59 +1
UC San Diego Big West 39 0.852 0.433 193 -9
New Mexico MWC 40 0.848 0.649 80 +2
West Virginia Big 12 41 0.846 0.790 13 -1
Arkansas SEC 42 0.844 0.760 28 +4
Colorado St. MWC 43 0.836 0.626 87 +9
Indiana Big 10 44 0.835 0.779 19 +3
Cincinnati Big 12 45 0.833 0.739 45 -7
Boise St. MWC 46 0.830 0.624 89 -3
San Diego St. MWC 47 0.829 0.691 64 +3
Utah St. MWC 48 0.825 0.623 90 +6
Northwestern Big 10 49 0.824 0.758 31 0
Vanderbilt SEC 50 0.824 0.739 44 -9
Oklahoma SEC 51 0.824 0.755 33 +5
Texas SEC 52 0.823 0.716 53 +1
Villanova Big East 53 0.821 0.680 68 -2
SMU ACC 54 0.819 0.637 84 -9
Santa Clara WCC 55 0.811 0.617 92 -7
Memphis AAC 56 0.804 0.657 77 -1
Penn St. Big 10 57 0.797 0.688 65 +4
Nebraska Big 10 58 0.793 0.753 36 -1
Pittsburgh ACC 59 0.792 0.712 55 0
Drake MVC 60 0.790 0.513 136 +4
Kansas St. Big 12 61 0.789 0.748 38 -1
Utah Big 12 62 0.788 0.725 49 -4
McNeese Southland 63 0.781 0.447 181 +5
Iowa Big 10 64 0.776 0.730 48 +6
Southern California Big 10 65 0.776 0.760 29 -2
Liberty C-USA 66 0.762 0.477 159 +13
San Francisco WCC 67 0.757 0.585 97 +4
UC Irvine Big West 68 0.755 0.466 163 +9
Arizona St. Big 12 69 0.750 0.819 3 -4
Wake Forest ACC 70 0.750 0.680 67 +5
Rutgers Big 10 71 0.750 0.758 30 -5
UCF Big 12 72 0.745 0.774 23 +4
North Texas AAC 73 0.742 0.516 131 -11
TCU Big 12 74 0.741 0.791 12 -7
Butler Big East 75 0.739 0.743 42 -6
Dayton A-10 76 0.734 0.626 88 +8
Saint Joseph’s A-10 77 0.730 0.527 125 -3
South Carolina SEC 78 0.730 0.779 18 0
Colorado Big 12 79 0.729 0.777 20 +7
Nevada MWC 80 0.727 0.639 83 -7
Yale Ivy 81 0.726 0.405 244 -1
LSU SEC 82 0.719 0.734 46 -10
Georgetown Big East 83 0.711 0.643 81 -1
Stanford ACC 84 0.703 0.657 76 -1
Florida St. ACC 85 0.701 0.667 73 +6
Oregon St. WCC 86 0.699 0.547 112 -5
George Mason A-10 87 0.697 0.519 129 -2
High Point Big South 88 0.697 0.368 289 +2
Minnesota Big 10 89 0.695 0.748 39 -2
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 90 0.688 0.428 207 -2
UNLV MWC 91 0.687 0.652 79 +2
Bradley MVC 92 0.685 0.516 133 -3
Oklahoma St. Big 12 93 0.682 0.760 27 +4
Lipscomb A-Sun 94 0.680 0.391 272 -2
Providence Big East 95 0.667 0.715 54 0
Notre Dame ACC 96 0.665 0.666 74 +2
UNI MVC 97 0.662 0.521 128 -1
Georgia Tech ACC 98 0.655 0.640 82 -4
Grand Canyon WAC 99 0.650 0.415 226 0
Troy Sunbelt 100 0.639 0.425 211 +10
Virginia ACC 101 0.639 0.699 62 -1
Saint Louis A-10 102 0.638 0.572 99 -1
Fla. Atlantic AAC 103 0.634 0.567 101 +6
Syracuse ACC 104 0.628 0.701 60 +8
California ACC 105 0.625 0.668 72 +2
UNCW CAA 106 0.624 0.398 262 +2
St. Bonaventure A-10 107 0.624 0.508 138 -3
Utah Valley WAC 108 0.621 0.410 235 -2
Middle Tenn. C-USA 109 0.614 0.556 104 +2
George Washington A-10 110 0.613 0.446 183 +11
Loyola Chicago A-10 111 0.612 0.494 149 +19
Washington Big 10 112 0.609 0.755 32 -9
DePaul Big East 113 0.608 0.678 69 +9
CSUN Big West 114 0.607 0.417 223 -12
NC State ACC 115 0.606 0.665 75 +4
UAB AAC 116 0.603 0.471 160 -11
North Ala. A-Sun 117 0.602 0.376 279 +6
Akron MAC 118 0.600 0.400 258 -5
New Mexico St. C-USA 119 0.589 0.538 116 +6
Louisiana Tech C-USA 120 0.589 0.508 139 -5
Chattanooga Southern 121 0.586 0.414 229 -1
Washington St. WCC 122 0.585 0.606 94 +7
Jacksonville St. C-USA 123 0.581 0.516 132 -9
South Alabama Sunbelt 124 0.578 0.396 266 0
Belmont MVC 125 0.578 0.515 134 +7
Duquesne A-10 126 0.577 0.550 109 +1
Wofford Southern 127 0.567 0.448 179 +16
Samford Southern 128 0.567 0.424 212 -12
Furman Southern 129 0.567 0.431 201 +18
Kent St. MAC 130 0.564 0.426 210 -12
Northern Colo. Big Sky 131 0.562 0.392 270 +5
Illinois St. MVC 132 0.561 0.512 137 -1
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 133 0.560 0.400 257 +1
Seattle U WAC 134 0.556 0.486 153 +10
Murray St. MVC 135 0.555 0.529 123 +10
South Dakota St. Summit 136 0.554 0.467 162 -19
Wichita St. AAC 137 0.553 0.551 107 -9
Kennesaw St. C-USA 138 0.553 0.548 111 +1
Cornell Ivy 139 0.549 0.404 247 +1
Robert Morris Horizon 140 0.548 0.355 297 +10
Tulane AAC 141 0.546 0.457 168 +5
North Dakota St. Summit 142 0.546 0.423 213 -9
Rhode Island A-10 143 0.540 0.498 145 +5
Omaha Summit 144 0.537 0.432 196 +18
Milwaukee Horizon 145 0.536 0.414 228 -10
Virginia Tech ACC 146 0.534 0.674 71 -20
UC Riverside Big West 147 0.532 0.518 130 +2
Davidson A-10 148 0.531 0.531 120 -11
Towson CAA 149 0.523 0.431 198 +4
ETSU Southern 150 0.523 0.391 273 -12
UC Santa Barbara Big West 151 0.523 0.401 252 -9
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 152 0.520 0.421 216 +15
UNC Greensboro Southern 153 0.512 0.415 227 -12
LMU (CA) WCC 154 0.512 0.580 98 +2
Temple AAC 155 0.500 0.504 141 +13
Col. of Charleston CAA 156 0.500 0.428 204 -2
UTEP C-USA 157 0.498 0.539 115 -5
Winthrop Big South 158 0.496 0.418 219 +13
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 159 0.489 0.401 253 +5
San Jose St. MWC 160 0.489 0.603 95 +3
Cleveland St. Horizon 161 0.488 0.400 256 +5
Western Ky. C-USA 162 0.487 0.567 102 -11
Miami (OH) MAC 163 0.487 0.358 296 +9
Nicholls Southland 164 0.486 0.447 182 -6
Bryant Am. East 165 0.486 0.314 329 +10
East Carolina AAC 166 0.484 0.487 152 -9
California Baptist WAC 167 0.481 0.454 172 +3
UIC MVC 168 0.480 0.536 117 -13
Radford Big South 169 0.478 0.431 197 +4
Lamar University Southland 170 0.477 0.427 208 +16
FGCU A-Sun 171 0.477 0.407 241 -12
Marshall Sunbelt 172 0.476 0.396 265 -3
Cal Poly Big West 173 0.476 0.498 144 +20
Sam Houston C-USA 174 0.475 0.566 103 +7
Montana Big Sky 175 0.470 0.455 170 +1
UTSA AAC 176 0.468 0.527 126 +8
James Madison Sunbelt 177 0.467 0.450 178 -16
Norfolk St. MEAC 178 0.464 0.334 307 -1
Miami (FL) ACC 179 0.463 0.684 66 0
South Carolina St. MEAC 180 0.460 0.303 337 +8
Boston College ACC 181 0.459 0.634 86 -3
Dartmouth Ivy 182 0.458 0.363 294 -17
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 183 0.456 0.416 224 -9
Oakland Horizon 184 0.456 0.483 155 +22
Central Conn. St. NEC 185 0.450 0.234 364 -3
Drexel CAA 186 0.448 0.372 283 +15
Montana St. Big Sky 187 0.448 0.434 191 +10
Indiana St. MVC 188 0.447 0.497 146 +4
Rice AAC 189 0.446 0.453 174 0
Ohio MAC 190 0.446 0.401 254 -30
Wyoming MWC 191 0.445 0.617 91 -4
Southern Ill. MVC 192 0.444 0.549 110 -1
South Fla. AAC 193 0.444 0.502 143 +1
Jacksonville A-Sun 194 0.443 0.434 190 +2
Portland St. Big Sky 195 0.441 0.371 285 -15
App State Sunbelt 196 0.439 0.413 232 -11
Idaho St. Big Sky 197 0.436 0.395 268 -14
Valparaiso MVC 198 0.433 0.514 135 +20
Merrimack MAAC 199 0.433 0.364 292 +16
Youngstown St. Horizon 200 0.427 0.370 287 +5
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 201 0.426 0.319 324 -3
Massachusetts A-10 202 0.424 0.531 119 -7
Queens (NC) A-Sun 203 0.423 0.402 249 +9
Seton Hall Big East 204 0.416 0.712 56 -14
Southeastern La. Southland 205 0.411 0.376 280 -2
Hampton CAA 206 0.410 0.421 217 -2
Princeton Ivy 207 0.407 0.444 185 +16
Texas St. Sunbelt 208 0.407 0.411 234 -6
Elon CAA 209 0.405 0.399 261 -10
Pepperdine WCC 210 0.402 0.553 106 +32
Central Mich. MAC 211 0.400 0.433 194 -11
Northeastern CAA 212 0.399 0.386 276 -3
UNC Asheville Big South 213 0.398 0.404 245 0
Northern Ky. Horizon 214 0.392 0.434 192 +12
SIUE OVC 215 0.392 0.294 348 +21
Longwood Big South 216 0.391 0.396 267 -2
Bucknell Patriot 217 0.388 0.345 302 -10
Quinnipiac MAAC 218 0.385 0.326 312 -8
Missouri St. MVC 219 0.383 0.529 124 -8
Hofstra CAA 220 0.382 0.417 222 +12
Campbell CAA 221 0.380 0.383 277 -13
La Salle A-10 222 0.379 0.550 108 +22
Brown Ivy 223 0.378 0.406 242 -1
South Dakota Summit 224 0.375 0.421 215 -8
UT Arlington WAC 225 0.375 0.430 202 +5
Kansas City Summit 226 0.372 0.441 186 +7
Hawaii Big West 227 0.371 0.489 150 -10
Southern U. SWAC 228 0.371 0.306 333 -9
Wright St. Horizon 229 0.368 0.409 236 -4
Presbyterian Big South 230 0.367 0.401 251 +1
Abilene Christian WAC 231 0.367 0.451 177 -3
Northwestern St. Southland 232 0.365 0.455 169 +11
Maine Am. East 233 0.363 0.294 350 +2
Manhattan MAAC 234 0.358 0.295 345 +17
CSU Bakersfield Big West 235 0.357 0.458 167 +4
Little Rock OVC 236 0.352 0.316 328 -9
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 237 0.352 0.352 300 +10
William & Mary CAA 238 0.351 0.414 230 -17
Vermont Am. East 239 0.351 0.318 325 -5
Richmond A-10 240 0.351 0.570 100 +1
Evansville MVC 241 0.349 0.530 121 -17
Delaware CAA 242 0.348 0.409 239 +31
UIW Southland 243 0.345 0.364 291 -6
Charlotte AAC 244 0.343 0.494 148 +2
Fordham A-10 245 0.343 0.535 118 -25
UC Davis Big West 246 0.338 0.477 157 -17
Toledo MAC 247 0.338 0.438 187 +7
Tennessee St. OVC 248 0.333 0.295 347 +5
UTRGV Southland 249 0.332 0.417 221 0
Fresno St. MWC 250 0.332 0.612 93 -12
Tulsa AAC 251 0.332 0.445 184 +16
North Dakota Summit 252 0.331 0.480 156 +11
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 253 0.330 0.373 282 -3
Siena MAAC 254 0.329 0.328 311 -14
Monmouth CAA 255 0.325 0.434 189 +11
FIU C-USA 256 0.324 0.485 154 -11
Harvard Ivy 257 0.324 0.412 233 +7
Georgia St. Sunbelt 258 0.323 0.433 195 +1
Colgate Patriot 259 0.317 0.344 303 +13
Portland WCC 260 0.315 0.554 105 -12
UMass Lowell Am. East 261 0.312 0.321 320 -5
American Patriot 262 0.312 0.336 306 +6
North Florida A-Sun 263 0.311 0.431 200 -1
Gardner-Webb Big South 264 0.309 0.428 205 +6
Iona MAAC 265 0.307 0.316 326 0
Navy Patriot 266 0.303 0.285 356 +12
Idaho Big Sky 267 0.301 0.415 225 -12
Mercer Southern 268 0.300 0.387 275 -11
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 269 0.300 0.321 322 +5
Sacred Heart MAAC 270 0.299 0.305 334 -9
Ball St. MAC 271 0.297 0.342 305 -2
Austin Peay A-Sun 272 0.294 0.431 199 -14
Jackson St. SWAC 273 0.293 0.369 288 -21
Alabama St. SWAC 274 0.291 0.287 355 +9
Eastern Mich. MAC 275 0.290 0.366 290 +11
Texas Southern SWAC 276 0.290 0.304 335 +14
Houston Christian Southland 277 0.279 0.428 206 -6
Bowling Green MAC 278 0.278 0.343 304 +2
UAlbany Am. East 279 0.277 0.289 354 -3
Pacific WCC 280 0.275 0.545 113 -3
Marist MAAC 281 0.273 0.253 361 -21
SFA Southland 282 0.268 0.423 214 -7
Old Dominion Sunbelt 283 0.268 0.399 259 +23
Western Mich. MAC 284 0.267 0.399 260 +7
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 285 0.266 0.347 301 -3
Lehigh Patriot 286 0.261 0.334 308 +2
Denver Summit 287 0.261 0.435 188 -8
San Diego WCC 288 0.256 0.541 114 -7
UT Martin OVC 289 0.254 0.310 332 +9
Lafayette Patriot 290 0.254 0.295 346 +4
LIU NEC 291 0.252 0.253 362 -7
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 292 0.251 0.453 173 -7
Weber St. Big Sky 293 0.249 0.427 209 -1
VMI Southern 294 0.248 0.397 263 +9
Penn Ivy 295 0.247 0.451 176 -8
Utah Tech WAC 296 0.243 0.477 158 +1
Long Beach St. Big West 297 0.243 0.503 142 +5
Saint Peter’s MAAC 298 0.242 0.298 343 -9
Charleston So. Big South 299 0.241 0.465 165 -6
Columbia Ivy 300 0.241 0.364 293 +1
Tarleton St. WAC 301 0.238 0.508 140 -6
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 302 0.237 0.421 218 -6
IU Indy Horizon 303 0.235 0.401 255 +6
Tennessee Tech OVC 304 0.234 0.316 327 +4
Delaware St. MEAC 305 0.234 0.290 353 -5
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 306 0.228 0.294 349 +10
Rider MAAC 307 0.227 0.322 318 +12
Boston U. Patriot 308 0.226 0.300 340 -3
Howard MEAC 309 0.225 0.354 299 +3
Oral Roberts Summit 310 0.222 0.497 147 -6
UMBC Am. East 311 0.222 0.304 336 +2
N.C. Central MEAC 312 0.222 0.321 323 +2
Air Force MWC 313 0.221 0.600 96 -14
Loyola Maryland Patriot 314 0.219 0.292 351 +3
Southern Utah WAC 315 0.211 0.465 164 -4
Louisiana Sunbelt 316 0.211 0.455 171 -6
Florida A&M SWAC 317 0.209 0.371 286 +3
Eastern Ill. OVC 318 0.208 0.359 295 0
Niagara MAAC 319 0.204 0.300 341 +12
Holy Cross Patriot 320 0.204 0.322 319 +2
Binghamton Am. East 321 0.199 0.282 357 -6
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 322 0.199 0.314 330 +6
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 323 0.199 0.355 298 -2
Alcorn SWAC 324 0.197 0.332 310 -17
Lindenwood OVC 325 0.197 0.324 315 -2
Grambling SWAC 326 0.191 0.333 309 +1
Green Bay Horizon 327 0.191 0.447 180 -2
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 328 0.187 0.460 166 +5
Stony Brook CAA 329 0.184 0.408 240 +3
Army West Point Patriot 330 0.182 0.321 321 -6
Morgan St. MEAC 331 0.181 0.302 339 -2
N.C. A&T CAA 332 0.181 0.406 243 -6
Fairfield MAAC 333 0.181 0.326 313 +10
Bellarmine A-Sun 334 0.178 0.404 246 +1
Stonehill NEC 335 0.176 0.264 359 -5
Morehead St. OVC 336 0.175 0.324 314 -2
Southern Ind. OVC 337 0.174 0.303 338 0
Detroit Mercy Horizon 338 0.169 0.429 203 -2
Central Ark. A-Sun 339 0.169 0.418 220 0
Western Caro. Southern 340 0.162 0.469 161 +4
USC Upstate Big South 341 0.161 0.453 175 -3
Western Ill. OVC 342 0.161 0.299 342 -1
West Ga. A-Sun 343 0.160 0.413 231 -1
Mercyhurst NEC 344 0.159 0.261 360 -4
Buffalo MAC 345 0.159 0.409 237 0
Sacramento St. Big Sky 346 0.152 0.403 248 +1
New Orleans Southland 347 0.147 0.489 151 -1
Stetson A-Sun 348 0.143 0.402 250 0
NIU MAC 349 0.142 0.391 274 +2
ULM Sunbelt 350 0.141 0.395 269 -1
Wagner NEC 351 0.138 0.247 363 -1
Le Moyne NEC 352 0.126 0.298 344 0
NJIT Am. East 353 0.115 0.311 331 +2
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 354 0.111 0.529 122 -1
UMES MEAC 355 0.105 0.397 264 +5
Canisius MAAC 356 0.105 0.376 281 -2
Prairie View SWAC 357 0.104 0.323 316 +1
The Citadel Southern 358 0.103 0.409 238 -1
New Hampshire Am. East 359 0.101 0.322 317 -3
Alabama A&M SWAC 360 0.097 0.270 358 -1
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.081 0.371 284 0
Chicago St. NEC 362 0.080 0.381 278 0
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 363 0.074 0.292 352 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.018 0.392 271 0