Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/2/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank
Duke ACC 1 0.976 0.719 52
Auburn SEC 2 0.970 0.830 2
Houston Big 12 3 0.969 0.787 13
Florida SEC 4 0.954 0.744 40
Tennessee SEC 5 0.945 0.784 14
Alabama SEC 6 0.943 0.838 1
Texas Tech Big 12 7 0.940 0.751 36
Gonzaga WCC 8 0.932 0.661 77
Iowa St. Big 12 9 0.931 0.749 37
Michigan St. Big 10 10 0.930 0.758 30
Arizona Big 12 11 0.925 0.806 7
Maryland Big 10 12 0.921 0.693 65
Wisconsin Big 10 13 0.921 0.758 29
St. John’s (NY) Big East 14 0.914 0.700 62
BYU Big 12 15 0.911 0.711 54
Purdue Big 10 16 0.910 0.814 4
Missouri SEC 17 0.909 0.709 57
Kentucky SEC 18 0.907 0.821 3
Clemson ACC 19 0.906 0.693 64
Kansas Big 12 20 0.904 0.804 8
Illinois Big 10 21 0.904 0.782 16
Marquette Big East 22 0.903 0.732 46
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 23 0.901 0.642 84
Louisville ACC 24 0.898 0.720 50
UCLA Big 10 25 0.894 0.735 45
VCU A-10 26 0.890 0.520 133
Texas A&M SEC 27 0.889 0.802 9
Baylor Big 12 28 0.889 0.809 6
Michigan Big 10 29 0.882 0.776 19
UC San Diego Big West 30 0.875 0.453 183
Ohio St. Big 10 31 0.872 0.794 11
Ole Miss SEC 32 0.871 0.767 23
Oregon Big 10 33 0.868 0.783 15
UConn Big East 34 0.867 0.700 61
Mississippi St. SEC 35 0.867 0.780 17
Georgia SEC 36 0.865 0.766 24
Creighton Big East 37 0.858 0.758 28
Cincinnati Big 12 38 0.857 0.744 41
Xavier Big East 39 0.852 0.708 58
West Virginia Big 12 40 0.849 0.797 10
Vanderbilt SEC 41 0.848 0.739 43
New Mexico MWC 42 0.848 0.651 79
Boise St. MWC 43 0.844 0.636 86
North Carolina ACC 44 0.844 0.756 31
SMU ACC 45 0.841 0.644 82
Arkansas SEC 46 0.838 0.759 27
Indiana Big 10 47 0.837 0.775 20
Santa Clara WCC 48 0.834 0.634 87
Northwestern Big 10 49 0.834 0.747 38
San Diego St. MWC 50 0.832 0.697 63
Villanova Big East 51 0.830 0.684 68
Colorado St. MWC 52 0.822 0.632 89
Texas SEC 53 0.822 0.709 56
Utah St. MWC 54 0.817 0.647 81
Memphis AAC 55 0.814 0.679 70
Oklahoma SEC 56 0.812 0.753 34
Nebraska Big 10 57 0.810 0.753 35
Utah Big 12 58 0.796 0.716 53
Pittsburgh ACC 59 0.795 0.728 47
Kansas St. Big 12 60 0.792 0.737 44
Penn St. Big 10 61 0.781 0.685 67
North Texas AAC 62 0.779 0.528 129
Southern California Big 10 63 0.776 0.764 25
Drake MVC 64 0.770 0.514 137
Arizona St. Big 12 65 0.769 0.812 5
Rutgers Big 10 66 0.769 0.756 32
TCU Big 12 67 0.767 0.794 12
McNeese Southland 68 0.766 0.460 175
Butler Big East 69 0.764 0.742 42
Iowa Big 10 70 0.761 0.724 48
San Francisco WCC 71 0.758 0.593 97
LSU SEC 72 0.752 0.722 49
Nevada MWC 73 0.750 0.631 90
Saint Joseph’s A-10 74 0.747 0.534 124
Wake Forest ACC 75 0.743 0.666 74
UCF Big 12 76 0.741 0.778 18
UC Irvine Big West 77 0.736 0.479 160
South Carolina SEC 78 0.735 0.773 22
Liberty C-USA 79 0.729 0.475 165
Yale Ivy 80 0.726 0.409 253
Oregon St. WCC 81 0.723 0.561 109
Georgetown Big East 82 0.720 0.642 83
Stanford ACC 83 0.720 0.652 78
Dayton A-10 84 0.718 0.618 93
George Mason A-10 85 0.715 0.537 120
Colorado Big 12 86 0.709 0.775 21
Minnesota Big 10 87 0.706 0.745 39
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 88 0.705 0.431 212
Bradley MVC 89 0.700 0.511 140
High Point Big South 90 0.694 0.370 291
Florida St. ACC 91 0.694 0.666 73
Lipscomb A-Sun 92 0.691 0.397 270
UNLV MWC 93 0.686 0.641 85
Georgia Tech ACC 94 0.685 0.647 80
Providence Big East 95 0.680 0.720 51
UNI MVC 96 0.678 0.528 130
Oklahoma St. Big 12 97 0.677 0.762 26
Notre Dame ACC 98 0.675 0.672 71
Grand Canyon WAC 99 0.666 0.435 207
Virginia ACC 100 0.663 0.709 55
Saint Louis A-10 101 0.657 0.574 100
CSUN Big West 102 0.656 0.423 225
Washington Big 10 103 0.645 0.756 33
St. Bonaventure A-10 104 0.637 0.518 135
UAB AAC 105 0.629 0.472 166
Utah Valley WAC 106 0.628 0.430 215
California ACC 107 0.627 0.665 75
UNCW CAA 108 0.621 0.403 259
Fla. Atlantic AAC 109 0.620 0.576 99
Troy Sunbelt 110 0.618 0.438 197
Middle Tenn. C-USA 111 0.610 0.565 105
Syracuse ACC 112 0.605 0.703 60
Akron MAC 113 0.605 0.416 237
Jacksonville St. C-USA 114 0.602 0.523 132
Louisiana Tech C-USA 115 0.600 0.513 138
Samford Southern 116 0.595 0.423 228
South Dakota St. Summit 117 0.592 0.476 162
Kent St. MAC 118 0.592 0.443 191
NC State ACC 119 0.592 0.668 72
Chattanooga Southern 120 0.591 0.419 232
George Washington A-10 121 0.590 0.454 181
DePaul Big East 122 0.589 0.682 69
North Ala. A-Sun 123 0.588 0.374 288
South Alabama Sunbelt 124 0.588 0.396 274
New Mexico St. C-USA 125 0.584 0.542 117
Virginia Tech ACC 126 0.582 0.662 76
Duquesne A-10 127 0.579 0.536 122
Wichita St. AAC 128 0.579 0.562 108
Washington St. WCC 129 0.578 0.615 94
Loyola Chicago A-10 130 0.578 0.499 148
Illinois St. MVC 131 0.570 0.520 134
Belmont MVC 132 0.561 0.508 141
North Dakota St. Summit 133 0.561 0.431 213
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 134 0.559 0.410 251
Milwaukee Horizon 135 0.555 0.413 244
Northern Colo. Big Sky 136 0.554 0.414 240
Davidson A-10 137 0.548 0.530 127
ETSU Southern 138 0.547 0.392 277
Kennesaw St. C-USA 139 0.546 0.553 111
Cornell Ivy 140 0.545 0.412 245
UNC Greensboro Southern 141 0.545 0.428 217
UC Santa Barbara Big West 142 0.545 0.401 264
Wofford Southern 143 0.541 0.460 173
Seattle U WAC 144 0.541 0.517 136
Murray St. MVC 145 0.541 0.534 125
Tulane AAC 146 0.540 0.458 177
Furman Southern 147 0.540 0.425 222
Rhode Island A-10 148 0.539 0.498 149
UC Riverside Big West 149 0.537 0.545 114
Robert Morris Horizon 150 0.533 0.356 302
Western Ky. C-USA 151 0.528 0.573 102
UTEP C-USA 152 0.523 0.546 113
Towson CAA 153 0.522 0.433 211
Col. of Charleston CAA 154 0.512 0.436 204
UIC MVC 155 0.512 0.544 115
LMU (CA) WCC 156 0.512 0.597 96
East Carolina AAC 157 0.512 0.486 154
Nicholls Southland 158 0.506 0.449 186
FGCU A-Sun 159 0.498 0.412 246
Ohio MAC 160 0.495 0.414 241
James Madison Sunbelt 161 0.494 0.451 184
Omaha Summit 162 0.494 0.439 195
San Jose St. MWC 163 0.491 0.613 95
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 164 0.491 0.398 267
Dartmouth Ivy 165 0.488 0.373 289
Cleveland St. Horizon 166 0.488 0.400 266
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 167 0.487 0.445 188
Temple AAC 168 0.485 0.507 142
Marshall Sunbelt 169 0.483 0.397 272
California Baptist WAC 170 0.480 0.475 164
Winthrop Big South 171 0.480 0.416 238
Miami (OH) MAC 172 0.479 0.376 287
Radford Big South 173 0.476 0.430 214
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 174 0.475 0.421 229
Bryant Am. East 175 0.475 0.334 314
Montana Big Sky 176 0.473 0.478 161
Norfolk St. MEAC 177 0.472 0.347 307
Boston College ACC 178 0.472 0.620 92
Miami (FL) ACC 179 0.469 0.693 66
Portland St. Big Sky 180 0.467 0.388 281
Sam Houston C-USA 181 0.466 0.573 101
Central Conn. St. NEC 182 0.465 0.243 364
Idaho St. Big Sky 183 0.464 0.407 255
UTSA AAC 184 0.464 0.528 131
App State Sunbelt 185 0.463 0.425 221
Lamar University Southland 186 0.462 0.426 219
Wyoming MWC 187 0.460 0.633 88
South Carolina St. MEAC 188 0.460 0.313 337
Rice AAC 189 0.459 0.457 178
Seton Hall Big East 190 0.455 0.705 59
Southern Ill. MVC 191 0.455 0.549 112
Indiana St. MVC 192 0.453 0.502 146
Cal Poly Big West 193 0.452 0.538 119
South Fla. AAC 194 0.448 0.495 150
Massachusetts A-10 195 0.448 0.529 128
Jacksonville A-Sun 196 0.445 0.433 210
Montana St. Big Sky 197 0.445 0.449 185
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 198 0.438 0.318 332
Elon CAA 199 0.432 0.401 262
Central Mich. MAC 200 0.431 0.459 176
Drexel CAA 201 0.431 0.367 292
Texas St. Sunbelt 202 0.427 0.424 224
Southeastern La. Southland 203 0.424 0.383 286
Hampton CAA 204 0.421 0.419 233
Youngstown St. Horizon 205 0.420 0.366 293
Oakland Horizon 206 0.419 0.493 151
Bucknell Patriot 207 0.417 0.350 305
Campbell CAA 208 0.413 0.389 279
Northeastern CAA 209 0.408 0.388 282
Quinnipiac MAAC 210 0.406 0.336 313
Missouri St. MVC 211 0.404 0.532 126
Queens (NC) A-Sun 212 0.404 0.396 275
UNC Asheville Big South 213 0.404 0.413 243
Longwood Big South 214 0.403 0.397 269
Merrimack MAAC 215 0.401 0.370 290
South Dakota Summit 216 0.397 0.419 234
Hawaii Big West 217 0.393 0.499 147
Valparaiso MVC 218 0.392 0.506 143
Southern U. SWAC 219 0.388 0.327 321
Fordham A-10 220 0.386 0.536 121
William & Mary CAA 221 0.382 0.417 236
Brown Ivy 222 0.382 0.397 273
Princeton Ivy 223 0.380 0.456 179
Evansville MVC 224 0.378 0.535 123
Wright St. Horizon 225 0.377 0.410 250
Northern Ky. Horizon 226 0.376 0.445 189
Little Rock OVC 227 0.375 0.315 333
Abilene Christian WAC 228 0.375 0.441 193
UC Davis Big West 229 0.374 0.463 172
UT Arlington WAC 230 0.374 0.436 203
Presbyterian Big South 231 0.373 0.401 263
Hofstra CAA 232 0.373 0.436 202
Kansas City Summit 233 0.368 0.455 180
Vermont Am. East 234 0.366 0.334 315
Maine Am. East 235 0.366 0.298 349
SIUE OVC 236 0.360 0.294 354
UIW Southland 237 0.359 0.365 295
Fresno St. MWC 238 0.356 0.629 91
CSU Bakersfield Big West 239 0.356 0.476 163
Siena MAAC 240 0.355 0.338 310
Richmond A-10 241 0.353 0.573 103
Pepperdine WCC 242 0.352 0.557 110
Northwestern St. Southland 243 0.349 0.464 171
La Salle A-10 244 0.346 0.541 118
FIU C-USA 245 0.345 0.484 155
Charlotte AAC 246 0.344 0.492 152
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 247 0.339 0.357 301
Portland WCC 248 0.338 0.567 104
UTRGV Southland 249 0.334 0.424 223
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 250 0.334 0.383 285
Manhattan MAAC 251 0.332 0.296 353
Jackson St. SWAC 252 0.327 0.435 208
Tennessee St. OVC 253 0.326 0.300 346
Toledo MAC 254 0.321 0.435 205
Idaho Big Sky 255 0.319 0.426 220
UMass Lowell Am. East 256 0.317 0.326 323
Mercer Southern 257 0.317 0.393 276
Austin Peay A-Sun 258 0.316 0.434 209
Georgia St. Sunbelt 259 0.316 0.442 192
Marist MAAC 260 0.316 0.248 363
Sacred Heart MAAC 261 0.316 0.308 340
North Florida A-Sun 262 0.314 0.437 199
North Dakota Summit 263 0.314 0.480 158
Harvard Ivy 264 0.313 0.415 239
Iona MAAC 265 0.312 0.318 331
Monmouth CAA 266 0.312 0.437 201
Tulsa AAC 267 0.307 0.444 190
American Patriot 268 0.307 0.342 308
Ball St. MAC 269 0.305 0.337 312
Gardner-Webb Big South 270 0.304 0.435 206
Houston Christian Southland 271 0.300 0.437 200
Colgate Patriot 272 0.298 0.352 304
Delaware CAA 273 0.298 0.423 226
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 274 0.294 0.322 328
SFA Southland 275 0.292 0.409 252
UAlbany Am. East 276 0.291 0.297 350
Pacific WCC 277 0.288 0.564 106
Navy Patriot 278 0.282 0.290 357
Denver Summit 279 0.278 0.437 198
Bowling Green MAC 280 0.277 0.359 299
San Diego WCC 281 0.277 0.562 107
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 282 0.276 0.366 294
Alabama St. SWAC 283 0.273 0.293 355
LIU NEC 284 0.270 0.267 360
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 285 0.269 0.466 170
Eastern Mich. MAC 286 0.268 0.358 300
Penn Ivy 287 0.267 0.454 182
Lehigh Patriot 288 0.267 0.341 309
Saint Peter’s MAAC 289 0.266 0.314 334
Texas Southern SWAC 290 0.265 0.326 322
Western Mich. MAC 291 0.259 0.402 260
Weber St. Big Sky 292 0.259 0.438 196
Charleston So. Big South 293 0.259 0.470 167
Lafayette Patriot 294 0.257 0.300 345
Tarleton St. WAC 295 0.254 0.512 139
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 296 0.253 0.440 194
Utah Tech WAC 297 0.253 0.480 159
UT Martin OVC 298 0.252 0.313 336
Air Force MWC 299 0.249 0.585 98
Delaware St. MEAC 300 0.248 0.308 339
Columbia Ivy 301 0.244 0.361 298
Long Beach St. Big West 302 0.244 0.505 145
VMI Southern 303 0.240 0.407 256
Oral Roberts Summit 304 0.239 0.505 144
Boston U. Patriot 305 0.239 0.303 343
Old Dominion Sunbelt 306 0.238 0.403 258
Alcorn SWAC 307 0.237 0.384 283
Tennessee Tech OVC 308 0.236 0.320 330
IU Indy Horizon 309 0.236 0.401 265
Louisiana Sunbelt 310 0.234 0.480 157
Southern Utah WAC 311 0.232 0.467 169
Howard MEAC 312 0.231 0.350 306
UMBC Am. East 313 0.223 0.305 342
N.C. Central MEAC 314 0.215 0.314 335
Binghamton Am. East 315 0.213 0.297 351
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 316 0.212 0.299 348
Loyola Maryland Patriot 317 0.211 0.293 356
Eastern Ill. OVC 318 0.211 0.361 297
Rider MAAC 319 0.209 0.338 311
Florida A&M SWAC 320 0.208 0.383 284
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 321 0.203 0.365 296
Holy Cross Patriot 322 0.201 0.329 319
Lindenwood OVC 323 0.201 0.332 317
Army West Point Patriot 324 0.201 0.321 329
Green Bay Horizon 325 0.199 0.448 187
N.C. A&T CAA 326 0.197 0.411 248
Grambling SWAC 327 0.197 0.354 303
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 328 0.197 0.328 320
Morgan St. MEAC 329 0.191 0.322 327
Stonehill NEC 330 0.187 0.270 359
Niagara MAAC 331 0.186 0.309 338
Stony Brook CAA 332 0.185 0.417 235
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 333 0.185 0.470 168
Morehead St. OVC 334 0.183 0.333 316
Bellarmine A-Sun 335 0.182 0.409 254
Detroit Mercy Horizon 336 0.175 0.428 218
Southern Ind. OVC 337 0.174 0.305 341
USC Upstate Big South 338 0.174 0.460 174
Central Ark. A-Sun 339 0.167 0.413 242
Mercyhurst NEC 340 0.163 0.267 361
Western Ill. OVC 341 0.163 0.301 344
West Ga. A-Sun 342 0.163 0.419 231
Fairfield MAAC 343 0.162 0.325 324
Western Caro. Southern 344 0.162 0.482 156
Buffalo MAC 345 0.161 0.402 261
New Orleans Southland 346 0.160 0.492 153
Sacramento St. Big Sky 347 0.157 0.420 230
Stetson A-Sun 348 0.145 0.406 257
ULM Sunbelt 349 0.145 0.410 249
Wagner NEC 350 0.138 0.253 362
NIU MAC 351 0.137 0.398 268
Le Moyne NEC 352 0.128 0.297 352
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 353 0.123 0.544 116
Canisius MAAC 354 0.116 0.389 280
NJIT Am. East 355 0.110 0.323 326
New Hampshire Am. East 356 0.110 0.323 325
The Citadel Southern 357 0.108 0.423 227
Prairie View SWAC 358 0.107 0.331 318
Alabama A&M SWAC 359 0.102 0.272 358
UMES MEAC 360 0.094 0.429 216
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.082 0.397 271
Chicago St. NEC 362 0.082 0.391 278
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 363 0.072 0.299 347
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.015 0.411 247