Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 2/02/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Update
Houston Big 12 1 0.974 0.754 15 0
Auburn SEC 2 0.968 0.797 3 +1
Duke ACC 3 0.966 0.720 32 -1
Tennessee SEC 4 0.952 0.739 17 +3
Florida SEC 5 0.947 0.683 48 0
Alabama SEC 6 0.937 0.814 1 +3
Texas Tech Big 12 7 0.935 0.680 50 +8
Purdue Big 10 8 0.930 0.798 2 +3
Iowa St. Big 12 9 0.928 0.699 41 -3
Arizona Big 12 10 0.928 0.753 16 +2
Kansas Big 12 11 0.923 0.795 4 -7
Illinois Big 10 12 0.920 0.731 25 -2
Gonzaga WCC 13 0.918 0.657 55 +4
Maryland Big 10 14 0.916 0.625 76 +4
Wisconsin Big 10 15 0.914 0.732 24 +8
Michigan St. Big 10 16 0.910 0.683 49 -3
Texas A&M SEC 17 0.910 0.770 11 +3
St. John’s (NY) Big East 18 0.909 0.654 58 +6
Michigan Big 10 19 0.907 0.734 22 -11
Baylor Big 12 20 0.904 0.774 9 -4
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 21 0.904 0.606 84 +10
Kentucky SEC 22 0.901 0.775 8 -1
Marquette Big East 23 0.900 0.719 33 -9
Missouri SEC 24 0.897 0.626 74 +18
Ohio St. Big 10 25 0.895 0.778 6 +9
UCLA Big 10 26 0.895 0.686 46 +6
Ole Miss SEC 27 0.893 0.721 30 -5
Texas SEC 28 0.892 0.651 60 +8
BYU Big 12 29 0.891 0.633 72 +9
Louisville ACC 30 0.889 0.737 20 -1
Clemson ACC 31 0.876 0.644 66 +6
Creighton Big East 32 0.876 0.737 18 +16
UConn Big East 33 0.871 0.660 53 -7
Mississippi St. SEC 34 0.866 0.734 21 -15
West Virginia Big 12 35 0.865 0.763 12 -5
VCU A-10 36 0.859 0.491 164 +19
Oklahoma SEC 37 0.855 0.656 56 +23
Pittsburgh ACC 38 0.855 0.720 31 -10
New Mexico MWC 39 0.853 0.643 67 +12
Georgia SEC 40 0.848 0.708 38 -13
SMU ACC 41 0.845 0.603 86 +9
North Carolina ACC 42 0.839 0.777 7 -7
Xavier Big East 43 0.832 0.695 42 +10
Arkansas SEC 44 0.830 0.701 40 +3
Boise St. MWC 45 0.829 0.602 87 +9
Oregon Big 10 46 0.828 0.760 14 -21
Memphis AAC 47 0.826 0.718 35 -8
UC San Diego Big West 48 0.826 0.467 186 +4
Vanderbilt SEC 49 0.821 0.616 81 -9
Utah St. MWC 50 0.821 0.610 83 -6
San Diego St. MWC 51 0.816 0.690 44 -18
Nebraska Big 10 52 0.814 0.728 27 -6
Villanova Big East 53 0.805 0.633 71 -8
Northwestern Big 10 54 0.805 0.732 23 +3
Kansas St. Big 12 55 0.805 0.692 43 +55
Southern California Big 10 56 0.805 0.723 29 +6
Penn St. Big 10 57 0.803 0.626 75 +2
UCF Big 12 58 0.797 0.770 10 +29
Arizona St. Big 12 59 0.797 0.788 5 -3
Santa Clara WCC 60 0.797 0.648 63 +8
Cincinnati Big 12 61 0.794 0.666 52 -20
Indiana Big 10 62 0.788 0.730 26 +3
Drake MVC 63 0.782 0.498 150 +6
McNeese Southland 64 0.777 0.508 139 0
UC Irvine Big West 65 0.776 0.477 176 -16
Iowa Big 10 66 0.775 0.649 62 -23
Oregon St. WCC 67 0.773 0.547 110 -6
North Texas AAC 68 0.772 0.542 113 -2
TCU Big 12 69 0.764 0.761 13 -11
Yale Ivy 70 0.761 0.411 255 +6
Colorado St. MWC 71 0.760 0.588 91 -1
Rutgers Big 10 72 0.758 0.727 28 +20
Wake Forest ACC 73 0.756 0.645 65 +7
George Mason A-10 74 0.752 0.497 151 +5
San Francisco WCC 75 0.746 0.538 117 +16
LSU SEC 76 0.745 0.655 57 -4
Utah Big 12 77 0.742 0.654 59 -3
Stanford ACC 78 0.740 0.606 85 +5
Butler Big East 79 0.730 0.737 19 +9
Providence Big East 80 0.727 0.666 51 +1
South Carolina SEC 81 0.722 0.715 36 +5
Liberty C-USA 82 0.721 0.456 199 -5
Grand Canyon WAC 83 0.721 0.446 211 +17
Nevada MWC 84 0.714 0.642 69 -21
Florida St. ACC 85 0.714 0.590 90 -14
Notre Dame ACC 86 0.712 0.617 80 -11
Dayton A-10 87 0.709 0.619 78 -14
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 88 0.706 0.458 197 +7
Georgetown Big East 89 0.706 0.575 94 -22
Saint Joseph’s A-10 90 0.698 0.524 127 -1
Bradley MVC 91 0.692 0.493 161 +6
Washington Big 10 92 0.685 0.718 34 +1
St. Bonaventure A-10 93 0.680 0.493 160 -15
Minnesota Big 10 94 0.675 0.702 39 +35
NC State ACC 95 0.672 0.642 70 -5
Akron MAC 96 0.670 0.424 241 +29
UNI MVC 97 0.661 0.507 140 +1
Colorado Big 12 98 0.659 0.712 37 -13
High Point Big South 99 0.654 0.363 305 -3
UNLV MWC 100 0.651 0.649 61 +24
Lipscomb A-Sun 101 0.647 0.408 261 -17
South Dakota St. Summit 102 0.647 0.487 167 +6
Georgia Tech ACC 103 0.644 0.627 73 +6
Troy Sunbelt 104 0.641 0.463 192 +17
Samford Southern 105 0.632 0.408 258 +6
CSUN Big West 106 0.631 0.406 264 +26
Fla. Atlantic AAC 107 0.630 0.583 92 -2
Washington St. WCC 108 0.622 0.580 93 -26
Oklahoma St. Big 12 109 0.621 0.684 47 +13
Saint Louis A-10 110 0.618 0.557 101 +3
Middle Tenn. C-USA 111 0.612 0.554 104 -9
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 112 0.608 0.409 257 -9
DePaul Big East 113 0.605 0.616 82 +20
UIC MVC 114 0.605 0.541 114 +5
UAB AAC 115 0.604 0.424 243 -8
Syracuse ACC 116 0.601 0.686 45 +15
North Dakota St. Summit 117 0.596 0.438 218 -18
Jacksonville St. C-USA 118 0.596 0.498 149 +35
Western Ky. C-USA 119 0.594 0.562 99 +25
UNCW CAA 120 0.589 0.403 267 +32
Louisiana Tech C-USA 121 0.586 0.489 165 +17
California ACC 122 0.585 0.619 79 -7
Milwaukee Horizon 123 0.576 0.432 228 +35
Illinois St. MVC 124 0.569 0.502 146 +11
LMU (CA) WCC 125 0.567 0.572 96 +24
North Ala. A-Sun 126 0.567 0.398 271 +4
Virginia ACC 127 0.565 0.658 54 +38
Utah Valley WAC 128 0.562 0.470 185 -2
Davidson A-10 129 0.561 0.512 133 -13
Virginia Tech ACC 130 0.560 0.648 64 +17
Tulane AAC 131 0.560 0.448 209 +15
FGCU A-Sun 132 0.557 0.433 227 +31
San Jose St. MWC 133 0.556 0.569 98 +27
UC Santa Barbara Big West 134 0.554 0.388 282 -7
Rhode Island A-10 135 0.552 0.470 184 -29
Cornell Ivy 136 0.551 0.382 292 +6
George Washington A-10 137 0.549 0.377 299 -33
Temple AAC 138 0.547 0.503 141 -10
Cleveland St. Horizon 139 0.545 0.391 280 +36
Col. of Charleston CAA 140 0.544 0.455 200 +1
Chattanooga Southern 141 0.543 0.425 239 +37
Belmont MVC 142 0.540 0.509 136 -5
ETSU Southern 143 0.540 0.395 278 +13
Campbell CAA 144 0.539 0.383 289 +110
UTEP C-USA 145 0.538 0.527 125 +16
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 146 0.536 0.403 266 -10
Northern Colo. Big Sky 147 0.534 0.441 217 -30
Wofford Southern 148 0.533 0.492 163 +11
UC Riverside Big West 149 0.533 0.561 100 +37
UNC Greensboro Southern 150 0.532 0.452 203 -36
East Carolina AAC 151 0.525 0.502 147 +13
South Alabama Sunbelt 152 0.524 0.383 288 -58
Duquesne A-10 153 0.515 0.534 119 -8
California Baptist WAC 154 0.515 0.472 181 0
Loyola Chicago A-10 155 0.515 0.464 190 +37
App State Sunbelt 156 0.515 0.449 207 -22
Seattle U WAC 157 0.514 0.546 111 +10
Princeton Ivy 158 0.512 0.451 204 -10
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 159 0.510 0.470 183 -39
Wichita St. AAC 160 0.507 0.555 103 +13
Bryant Am. East 161 0.506 0.349 321 +38
Wyoming MWC 162 0.504 0.591 89 -23
James Madison Sunbelt 163 0.504 0.492 162 +5
Kent St. MAC 164 0.504 0.431 231 -41
Norfolk St. MEAC 165 0.501 0.398 272 -25
Massachusetts A-10 166 0.499 0.500 148 +50
Kennesaw St. C-USA 167 0.496 0.534 118 +26
Jacksonville A-Sun 168 0.495 0.484 173 -2
Elon CAA 169 0.494 0.410 256 -14
Robert Morris Horizon 170 0.493 0.355 314 +60
Nicholls Southland 171 0.491 0.494 156 +17
Furman Southern 172 0.489 0.453 201 -54
Hawaii Big West 173 0.488 0.487 166 -30
New Mexico St. C-USA 174 0.483 0.532 121 -73
Murray St. MVC 175 0.482 0.517 129 -63
Towson CAA 176 0.481 0.461 195 +13
Ohio MAC 177 0.472 0.408 260 -26
Southern Ill. MVC 178 0.468 0.552 107 +80
Miami (OH) MAC 179 0.466 0.368 304 -29
UNC Asheville Big South 180 0.463 0.412 254 -1
Longwood Big South 181 0.455 0.397 277 +26
UTSA AAC 182 0.452 0.550 108 +62
Omaha Summit 183 0.452 0.423 244 +8
Central Conn. St. NEC 184 0.449 0.271 362 +52
Hofstra CAA 185 0.448 0.508 138 +13
Rice AAC 186 0.443 0.424 242 -9
Montana St. Big Sky 187 0.440 0.459 196 +8
Marshall Sunbelt 188 0.438 0.398 273 +6
Idaho St. Big Sky 189 0.436 0.429 234 +13
Little Rock OVC 190 0.435 0.345 323 +44
Seton Hall Big East 191 0.432 0.643 68 -21
Sam Houston C-USA 192 0.432 0.572 97 -16
Oakland Horizon 193 0.429 0.539 115 -12
Queens (NC) A-Sun 194 0.429 0.431 229 +9
Portland St. Big Sky 195 0.429 0.382 290 +48
Wright St. Horizon 196 0.428 0.426 236 -9
Quinnipiac MAAC 197 0.428 0.356 313 +25
Toledo MAC 198 0.426 0.473 177 +8
Texas St. Sunbelt 199 0.425 0.433 226 -27
Radford Big South 200 0.425 0.425 237 -20
Montana Big Sky 201 0.424 0.511 134 +11
Merrimack MAAC 202 0.424 0.397 276 -1
Fordham A-10 203 0.422 0.502 145 +52
Southeastern La. Southland 204 0.420 0.370 303 -7
Miami (FL) ACC 205 0.419 0.623 77 -48
Boston College ACC 206 0.418 0.573 95 +15
Lamar University Southland 207 0.417 0.435 222 -17
Maine Am. East 208 0.416 0.305 348 +42
South Fla. AAC 209 0.414 0.441 216 -47
La Salle A-10 210 0.413 0.519 128 -39
Winthrop Big South 211 0.408 0.424 240 -29
Drexel CAA 212 0.406 0.359 310 -8
Northeastern CAA 213 0.405 0.402 268 +7
Central Mich. MAC 214 0.403 0.485 170 +15
Southern U. SWAC 215 0.401 0.386 286 -10
Valparaiso MVC 216 0.401 0.503 143 -33
UT Arlington WAC 217 0.394 0.404 265 -4
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 218 0.389 0.448 210 -3
UC Davis Big West 219 0.388 0.480 175 +60
Missouri St. MVC 220 0.386 0.516 130 +28
Indiana St. MVC 221 0.385 0.485 171 -36
Pepperdine WCC 222 0.385 0.526 126 -53
Mercer Southern 223 0.383 0.387 285 +26
UTRGV Southland 224 0.377 0.443 213 -50
Marist MAAC 225 0.377 0.227 364 -7
Evansville MVC 226 0.373 0.529 124 +36
South Carolina St. MEAC 227 0.369 0.353 316 -13
Gardner-Webb Big South 228 0.367 0.452 202 +31
Cal Poly Big West 229 0.365 0.548 109 -18
Youngstown St. Horizon 230 0.363 0.363 306 -30
William & Mary CAA 231 0.363 0.392 279 -47
Kansas City Summit 232 0.351 0.435 220 -4
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 233 0.351 0.349 322 +18
FIU C-USA 234 0.347 0.449 208 -26
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 235 0.346 0.350 318 +25
North Florida A-Sun 236 0.345 0.467 187 -4
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 237 0.344 0.495 155 +9
Charlotte AAC 238 0.343 0.473 178 +23
South Dakota Summit 239 0.342 0.413 253 -8
Idaho Big Sky 240 0.340 0.444 212 +5
Siena MAAC 241 0.338 0.362 308 +36
Houston Christian Southland 242 0.336 0.466 189 +33
Fresno St. MWC 243 0.330 0.598 88 -3
SIUE OVC 244 0.328 0.293 356 -6
Colgate Patriot 245 0.327 0.381 293 -12
CSU Bakersfield Big West 246 0.325 0.470 182 -37
North Dakota Summit 247 0.322 0.497 152 +5
UMass Lowell Am. East 248 0.319 0.336 332 -29
Brown Ivy 249 0.317 0.397 274 -14
Dartmouth Ivy 250 0.314 0.350 319 +41
Bucknell Patriot 251 0.314 0.387 284 +13
American Patriot 252 0.312 0.356 312 +46
Richmond A-10 253 0.312 0.554 105 -27
Delaware CAA 254 0.311 0.379 295 -44
Northern Ky. Horizon 255 0.310 0.458 198 -38
UIW Southland 256 0.306 0.354 315 -19
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 257 0.305 0.450 206 +12
Tennessee Tech OVC 258 0.303 0.339 328 +10
Tulsa AAC 259 0.303 0.381 294 +30
Tennessee St. OVC 260 0.301 0.333 335 +35
Manhattan MAAC 261 0.300 0.301 351 +27
Ball St. MAC 262 0.300 0.327 339 -66
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 263 0.300 0.387 283 +47
Monmouth CAA 264 0.298 0.443 214 +7
Charleston So. Big South 265 0.297 0.485 172 0
Columbia Ivy 266 0.296 0.313 343 -42
VMI Southern 267 0.290 0.378 297 +53
Presbyterian Big South 268 0.286 0.408 259 +2
Navy Patriot 269 0.286 0.293 355 +45
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 270 0.283 0.428 235 -43
Hampton CAA 271 0.283 0.429 233 -29
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 272 0.283 0.344 326 -49
Texas Southern SWAC 273 0.282 0.422 248 +45
Northwestern St. Southland 274 0.281 0.494 157 -21
Harvard Ivy 275 0.278 0.406 262 +1
Tarleton St. WAC 276 0.273 0.511 135 +27
SFA Southland 277 0.272 0.431 230 -36
Sacred Heart MAAC 278 0.269 0.300 352 -11
Air Force MWC 279 0.268 0.532 122 +23
Jackson St. SWAC 280 0.266 0.545 112 +6
UMBC Am. East 281 0.264 0.306 347 -42
Iona MAAC 282 0.263 0.328 338 +25
Abilene Christian WAC 283 0.262 0.493 159 -26
Georgia St. Sunbelt 284 0.262 0.502 144 +16
Delaware St. MEAC 285 0.261 0.334 334 +11
UT Martin OVC 286 0.260 0.350 320 -30
San Diego WCC 287 0.256 0.553 106 +3
Austin Peay A-Sun 288 0.255 0.472 180 +31
Howard MEAC 289 0.255 0.430 232 -7
Morehead St. OVC 290 0.254 0.345 324 -12
Old Dominion Sunbelt 291 0.252 0.421 250 -10
Pacific WCC 292 0.250 0.539 116 -5
Utah Tech WAC 293 0.249 0.496 154 -19
Portland WCC 294 0.248 0.555 102 +3
Southern Utah WAC 295 0.247 0.486 168 -48
N.C. Central MEAC 296 0.246 0.360 309 +13
Army West Point Patriot 297 0.245 0.324 341 +9
Western Mich. MAC 298 0.243 0.402 269 -13
Alabama St. SWAC 299 0.241 0.370 302 -26
Eastern Mich. MAC 300 0.238 0.372 301 +23
Lafayette Patriot 301 0.238 0.301 350 -35
Vermont Am. East 302 0.237 0.351 317 -22
Weber St. Big Sky 303 0.230 0.472 179 -78
UAlbany Am. East 304 0.228 0.300 353 -5
Saint Peter’s MAAC 305 0.228 0.318 342 -42
Oral Roberts Summit 306 0.226 0.512 131 +10
Lehigh Patriot 307 0.225 0.362 307 -13
IU Indy Horizon 308 0.220 0.390 281 -36
Penn Ivy 309 0.220 0.450 205 +23
Bowling Green MAC 310 0.219 0.379 296 -27
Long Beach St. Big West 311 0.215 0.503 142 -27
Boston U. Patriot 312 0.213 0.304 349 +5
Louisiana Sunbelt 313 0.204 0.485 169 +15
Stonehill NEC 314 0.203 0.283 359 -9
Southern Ind. OVC 315 0.203 0.308 345 +14
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 316 0.203 0.338 329 -5
Holy Cross Patriot 317 0.201 0.329 336 -4
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 318 0.196 0.344 325 -26
Denver Summit 319 0.195 0.422 245 +11
LIU NEC 320 0.195 0.292 358 -27
Rider MAAC 321 0.194 0.341 327 +23
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 322 0.193 0.480 174 +19
Detroit Mercy Horizon 323 0.193 0.436 219 +10
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 324 0.191 0.532 123 +16
Niagara MAAC 325 0.191 0.293 357 -21
Binghamton Am. East 326 0.190 0.297 354 0
Alcorn SWAC 327 0.188 0.497 153 +18
Loyola Maryland Patriot 328 0.188 0.282 361 -27
Morgan St. MEAC 329 0.185 0.337 330 +13
West Ga. A-Sun 330 0.179 0.434 223 +5
Eastern Ill. OVC 331 0.179 0.378 298 +8
Florida A&M SWAC 332 0.177 0.462 194 +24
Stony Brook CAA 333 0.176 0.433 225 +14
Central Ark. A-Sun 334 0.173 0.418 252 -3
N.C. A&T CAA 335 0.170 0.397 275 -27
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 336 0.164 0.382 291 -15
Grambling SWAC 337 0.163 0.421 249 -13
New Orleans Southland 338 0.162 0.533 120 +8
ULM Sunbelt 339 0.162 0.384 287 +9
Stetson A-Sun 340 0.161 0.422 247 +3
USC Upstate Big South 341 0.159 0.462 193 -7
Green Bay Horizon 342 0.158 0.466 188 -20
Lindenwood OVC 343 0.158 0.359 311 -28
Buffalo MAC 344 0.155 0.442 215 -19
Prairie View SWAC 345 0.155 0.406 263 -33
Mercyhurst NEC 346 0.144 0.282 360 +8
NIU MAC 347 0.141 0.435 221 +15
Sacramento St. Big Sky 348 0.141 0.418 251 +1
Fairfield MAAC 349 0.139 0.325 340 -22
Wagner NEC 350 0.137 0.260 363 +3
Bellarmine A-Sun 351 0.133 0.425 238 0
Le Moyne NEC 352 0.123 0.336 331 -16
NJIT Am. East 353 0.121 0.329 337 +4
Western Ill. OVC 354 0.113 0.307 346 -16
Western Caro. Southern 355 0.111 0.494 158 -18
Canisius MAAC 356 0.110 0.399 270 -4
UMES MEAC 357 0.110 0.509 137 -7
Alabama A&M SWAC 358 0.109 0.313 344 0
Chicago St. NEC 359 0.102 0.464 191 +4
The Citadel Southern 360 0.093 0.422 246 -5
New Hampshire Am. East 361 0.081 0.335 333 -2
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 362 0.067 0.374 300 -1
Coppin St. MEAC 363 0.063 0.433 224 -3
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.024 0.512 132 0