Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 1/19/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.973 0.706 24 0
Duke ACC 2 0.973 0.717 22 0
Auburn SEC 3 0.968 0.777 3 0
Iowa St. Big 12 4 0.950 0.672 38 +2
Florida SEC 5 0.949 0.633 57 0
Tennessee SEC 6 0.943 0.668 40 +1
Illinois Big 10 7 0.943 0.687 32 +3
Kansas Big 12 8 0.939 0.767 4 -4
Alabama SEC 9 0.935 0.806 1 0
Purdue Big 10 10 0.932 0.787 2 +1
Texas Tech Big 12 11 0.928 0.621 63 +4
Michigan Big 10 12 0.925 0.703 25 -4
Arizona Big 12 13 0.924 0.748 11 -1
Michigan St. Big 10 14 0.917 0.680 36 -1
Ole Miss SEC 15 0.913 0.664 41 +7
Kentucky SEC 16 0.911 0.755 8 +5
Marquette Big East 17 0.907 0.716 23 -3
Texas A&M SEC 18 0.905 0.734 15 +2
Mississippi St. SEC 19 0.903 0.692 31 0
Wisconsin Big 10 20 0.903 0.693 28 +3
St. John’s (NY) Big East 21 0.903 0.627 61 +3
Baylor Big 12 22 0.894 0.758 7 -6
Maryland Big 10 23 0.893 0.557 108 -5
Gonzaga WCC 24 0.888 0.660 44 -7
West Virginia Big 12 25 0.887 0.729 17 +5
Louisville ACC 26 0.887 0.740 13 +3
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 27 0.885 0.547 116 +4
Georgia SEC 28 0.883 0.650 48 -1
Oregon Big 10 29 0.877 0.752 10 -4
Missouri SEC 30 0.876 0.580 86 +12
UCLA Big 10 31 0.875 0.658 45 +1
Clemson ACC 32 0.869 0.645 52 +5
UConn Big East 33 0.866 0.620 64 -7
SMU ACC 34 0.860 0.576 91 +16
North Carolina ACC 35 0.859 0.765 5 0
Vanderbilt SEC 36 0.858 0.552 114 +4
Pittsburgh ACC 37 0.857 0.719 21 -9
Cincinnati Big 12 38 0.857 0.601 72 +3
BYU Big 12 39 0.854 0.577 89 -1
Ohio St. Big 10 40 0.853 0.737 14 -6
Creighton Big East 41 0.851 0.748 12 +7
Texas SEC 42 0.846 0.574 94 -6
San Diego St. MWC 43 0.843 0.727 18 -10
Xavier Big East 44 0.842 0.662 42 +9
UC Irvine Big West 45 0.828 0.498 165 +4
New Mexico MWC 46 0.826 0.646 51 +5
Memphis AAC 47 0.825 0.753 9 -8
VCU A-10 48 0.825 0.469 200 +7
Northwestern Big 10 49 0.824 0.702 26 +8
Utah St. MWC 50 0.824 0.601 73 -6
Boise St. MWC 51 0.823 0.594 76 +3
Villanova Big East 52 0.821 0.586 80 -7
Nebraska Big 10 53 0.817 0.684 33 -7
Penn St. Big 10 54 0.808 0.561 107 +5
Oklahoma SEC 55 0.808 0.605 70 +5
TCU Big 12 56 0.806 0.730 16 +2
UC San Diego Big West 57 0.805 0.465 207 -5
Arkansas SEC 58 0.805 0.672 39 -11
Iowa Big 10 59 0.803 0.626 62 -16
North Texas AAC 60 0.798 0.531 129 +6
Oregon St. WCC 61 0.795 0.521 139 0
Florida St. ACC 62 0.793 0.594 77 +9
Arizona St. Big 12 63 0.786 0.758 6 -7
Southern California Big 10 64 0.786 0.693 29 -2
Santa Clara WCC 65 0.785 0.645 53 +3
Utah Big 12 66 0.783 0.577 90 +8
McNeese Southland 67 0.779 0.527 131 -3
Drake MVC 68 0.777 0.499 164 +1
LSU SEC 69 0.772 0.570 99 +3
Indiana Big 10 70 0.771 0.692 30 -5
Bradley MVC 71 0.770 0.467 203 +26
Lipscomb A-Sun 72 0.768 0.441 234 +12
Colorado St. MWC 73 0.767 0.600 74 -3
Nevada MWC 74 0.765 0.601 71 -11
UCF Big 12 75 0.764 0.723 19 +12
Georgetown Big East 76 0.740 0.513 147 -9
Wake Forest ACC 77 0.738 0.556 111 +3
San Francisco WCC 78 0.734 0.518 141 +13
George Mason A-10 79 0.730 0.481 188 0
Rutgers Big 10 80 0.730 0.681 34 +12
Yale Ivy 81 0.725 0.452 220 -5
Notre Dame ACC 82 0.718 0.629 60 -7
Stanford ACC 83 0.717 0.586 79 0
Liberty C-USA 84 0.712 0.454 218 -7
Dayton A-10 85 0.703 0.635 55 -12
Providence Big East 86 0.699 0.654 47 -5
Grand Canyon WAC 87 0.698 0.454 217 +13
Washington St. WCC 88 0.698 0.553 112 -6
Butler Big East 89 0.691 0.720 20 -1
South Carolina SEC 90 0.690 0.648 49 -4
Colorado Big 12 91 0.689 0.680 35 -6
St. Bonaventure A-10 92 0.685 0.442 232 -14
Saint Joseph’s A-10 93 0.681 0.492 173 -4
North Dakota St. Summit 94 0.679 0.429 251 +5
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 95 0.678 0.463 209 0
Washington Big 10 96 0.671 0.698 27 -3
Kansas St. Big 12 97 0.670 0.646 50 +13
Middle Tenn. C-USA 98 0.663 0.570 98 +4
UNLV MWC 99 0.663 0.635 54 +25
South Alabama Sunbelt 100 0.655 0.403 281 -6
NC State ACC 101 0.654 0.581 83 -11
South Dakota St. Summit 102 0.652 0.506 157 +6
High Point Big South 103 0.648 0.383 304 -7
Minnesota Big 10 104 0.646 0.661 43 +25
UAB AAC 105 0.632 0.408 276 +2
CSUN Big West 106 0.632 0.386 299 +26
Duquesne A-10 107 0.629 0.545 120 +38
DePaul Big East 108 0.626 0.585 81 +25
New Mexico St. C-USA 109 0.623 0.533 125 -8
UNC Greensboro Southern 110 0.620 0.471 197 +4
App State Sunbelt 111 0.616 0.494 169 +23
Oklahoma St. Big 12 112 0.614 0.619 65 +10
Troy Sunbelt 113 0.614 0.508 153 +8
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 114 0.612 0.411 271 -11
Wofford Southern 115 0.607 0.536 124 +44
Georgia Tech ACC 116 0.606 0.613 67 -7
UNI MVC 117 0.606 0.489 176 -19
Rhode Island A-10 118 0.604 0.449 223 -12
Temple AAC 119 0.601 0.502 161 +9
UIC MVC 120 0.600 0.556 110 -1
Saint Louis A-10 121 0.595 0.522 138 -8
Davidson A-10 122 0.593 0.495 168 -6
George Washington A-10 123 0.593 0.355 327 -19
California ACC 124 0.591 0.607 69 -9
Akron MAC 125 0.589 0.459 211 0
Samford Southern 126 0.585 0.411 270 -15
Fla. Atlantic AAC 127 0.576 0.585 82 -22
Tulane AAC 128 0.572 0.431 248 +18
Murray St. MVC 129 0.570 0.533 126 -17
Illinois St. MVC 130 0.570 0.495 167 +5
Utah Valley WAC 131 0.568 0.454 219 -5
UTEP C-USA 132 0.568 0.522 137 +29
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 133 0.567 0.483 183 -13
Seattle U WAC 134 0.562 0.545 119 +33
North Ala. A-Sun 135 0.561 0.401 284 -5
Elon CAA 136 0.560 0.410 273 +19
ETSU Southern 137 0.559 0.393 292 +19
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 138 0.558 0.398 287 -2
Syracuse ACC 139 0.557 0.658 46 -8
Louisiana Tech C-USA 140 0.551 0.470 198 -2
Belmont MVC 141 0.548 0.507 155 -4
Miami (OH) MAC 142 0.545 0.369 316 +8
FGCU A-Sun 143 0.540 0.483 184 +20
Cornell Ivy 144 0.540 0.389 295 -2
Virginia ACC 145 0.538 0.676 37 +20
Col. of Charleston CAA 146 0.536 0.460 210 -5
UNCW CAA 147 0.532 0.429 252 +5
Jacksonville St. C-USA 148 0.532 0.488 177 +5
San Jose St. MWC 149 0.530 0.576 92 +11
Northern Colo. Big Sky 150 0.530 0.476 193 -33
LMU (CA) WCC 151 0.524 0.632 58 -2
UC Santa Barbara Big West 152 0.523 0.364 319 -25
Western Ky. C-USA 153 0.522 0.579 87 -9
Princeton Ivy 154 0.519 0.438 240 -6
Ohio MAC 155 0.518 0.401 283 -4
Milwaukee Horizon 156 0.518 0.429 254 +2
Virginia Tech ACC 157 0.518 0.634 56 -10
Cleveland St. Horizon 158 0.514 0.403 280 +17
Furman Southern 159 0.506 0.472 196 -41
Chattanooga Southern 160 0.506 0.429 253 +18
East Carolina AAC 161 0.506 0.515 146 +3
Norfolk St. MEAC 162 0.502 0.410 274 -22
Bryant Am. East 163 0.497 0.411 272 +36
Idaho St. Big Sky 164 0.494 0.474 195 +38
Jacksonville A-Sun 165 0.493 0.512 148 +1
UC Riverside Big West 166 0.491 0.579 88 +20
Loyola Chicago A-10 167 0.489 0.441 235 +25
James Madison Sunbelt 168 0.483 0.564 105 0
Hawaii Big West 169 0.482 0.480 189 -26
Wichita St. AAC 170 0.480 0.517 142 +3
California Baptist WAC 171 0.477 0.500 162 -17
Texas St. Sunbelt 172 0.473 0.434 243 0
Marshall Sunbelt 173 0.471 0.437 241 +21
Quinnipiac MAAC 174 0.468 0.375 311 +48
Nicholls Southland 175 0.463 0.492 171 +13
Montana St. Big Sky 176 0.462 0.497 166 +19
South Fla. AAC 177 0.462 0.426 255 -15
Toledo MAC 178 0.461 0.506 156 +28
Queens (NC) A-Sun 179 0.461 0.441 233 +24
Wright St. Horizon 180 0.456 0.445 228 +7
Oakland Horizon 181 0.455 0.581 84 0
Seton Hall Big East 182 0.455 0.588 78 -12
Kent St. MAC 183 0.455 0.424 257 -60
William & Mary CAA 184 0.454 0.391 294 0
Omaha Summit 185 0.451 0.446 225 +6
Kennesaw St. C-USA 186 0.450 0.523 136 +7
Rice AAC 187 0.449 0.387 298 -10
Southern Ill. MVC 188 0.449 0.532 127 +70
Massachusetts A-10 189 0.449 0.493 170 +27
Sam Houston C-USA 190 0.441 0.571 96 -14
Wyoming MWC 191 0.437 0.580 85 -52
Southeastern La. Southland 192 0.436 0.414 265 +5
Pepperdine WCC 193 0.432 0.569 100 -24
Winthrop Big South 194 0.430 0.425 256 -12
Miami (FL) ACC 195 0.429 0.611 68 -38
Longwood Big South 196 0.428 0.404 279 +11
Robert Morris Horizon 197 0.428 0.366 318 +33
Hofstra CAA 198 0.427 0.531 128 0
Valparaiso MVC 199 0.425 0.484 182 -16
UNC Asheville Big South 200 0.424 0.423 259 -21
Radford Big South 201 0.424 0.445 227 -21
La Salle A-10 202 0.423 0.511 151 -31
Southern U. SWAC 203 0.423 0.485 180 +2
Towson CAA 204 0.421 0.479 190 -15
Colgate Patriot 205 0.420 0.406 277 +28
Maine Am. East 206 0.418 0.322 345 +44
Merrimack MAAC 207 0.413 0.434 245 -6
Delaware CAA 208 0.409 0.382 305 +2
Northeastern CAA 209 0.404 0.402 282 +11
Portland St. Big Sky 210 0.402 0.392 293 +33
Youngstown St. Horizon 211 0.396 0.358 326 -11
Little Rock OVC 212 0.392 0.399 286 +22
CSU Bakersfield Big West 213 0.392 0.492 172 -4
Columbia Ivy 214 0.391 0.312 353 +10
Drexel CAA 215 0.390 0.346 331 -11
Lamar University Southland 216 0.387 0.469 199 -26
UTRGV Southland 217 0.385 0.419 262 -43
UT Arlington WAC 218 0.385 0.416 264 -5
Central Mich. MAC 219 0.381 0.567 103 +10
South Carolina St. MEAC 220 0.379 0.359 325 -6
UTSA AAC 221 0.379 0.509 152 +23
Kansas City Summit 222 0.376 0.451 221 +6
Boston College ACC 223 0.375 0.541 122 -2
Central Conn. St. NEC 224 0.374 0.304 358 +12
FIU C-USA 225 0.370 0.431 247 -17
Gardner-Webb Big South 226 0.367 0.459 212 +33
North Florida A-Sun 227 0.360 0.512 149 +5
Idaho Big Sky 228 0.359 0.458 214 +17
Richmond A-10 229 0.358 0.525 135 -3
Cal Poly Big West 230 0.353 0.575 93 -19
Montana Big Sky 231 0.352 0.568 101 -19
Campbell CAA 232 0.350 0.383 303 +22
SIUE OVC 233 0.350 0.334 336 +5
UC Davis Big West 234 0.349 0.458 213 +45
Indiana St. MVC 235 0.347 0.465 206 -50
Harvard Ivy 236 0.344 0.394 291 +40
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 237 0.341 0.450 222 -22
Marist MAAC 238 0.341 0.233 364 -20
UMass Lowell Am. East 239 0.340 0.376 310 -20
Fresno St. MWC 240 0.340 0.568 102 0
Hampton CAA 241 0.339 0.467 202 +1
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 242 0.338 0.404 278 +18
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 243 0.335 0.505 158 -16
Northern Ky. Horizon 244 0.331 0.475 194 -27
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 245 0.331 0.526 133 +1
Mercer Southern 246 0.329 0.386 300 +3
Fordham A-10 247 0.327 0.485 179 +8
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 248 0.326 0.343 332 +3
Northwestern St. Southland 249 0.324 0.548 115 +4
South Dakota Summit 250 0.321 0.413 268 -19
Weber St. Big Sky 251 0.320 0.541 123 -26
Ball St. MAC 252 0.317 0.361 324 -56
Charlotte AAC 253 0.316 0.468 201 +8
UIW Southland 254 0.315 0.378 306 -17
American Patriot 255 0.315 0.386 301 +43
Siena MAAC 256 0.313 0.374 313 +21
Charleston So. Big South 257 0.310 0.527 132 +8
Brown Ivy 258 0.309 0.414 266 -23
Missouri St. MVC 259 0.308 0.488 178 -11
UT Martin OVC 260 0.307 0.362 321 -4
Saint Peter’s MAAC 261 0.306 0.330 338 +2
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 262 0.305 0.463 208 +7
Southern Utah WAC 263 0.302 0.499 163 -16
Presbyterian Big South 264 0.293 0.388 297 +6
Morehead St. OVC 265 0.293 0.371 314 +13
North Dakota Summit 266 0.292 0.489 175 -14
Evansville MVC 267 0.291 0.516 144 -5
SFA Southland 268 0.289 0.434 244 -27
Jackson St. SWAC 269 0.287 0.631 59 +17
Houston Christian Southland 270 0.287 0.483 185 +5
Bucknell Patriot 271 0.282 0.414 267 -7
Vermont Am. East 272 0.281 0.395 288 +8
San Diego WCC 273 0.280 0.571 97 +17
Western Mich. MAC 274 0.279 0.466 205 +11
Abilene Christian WAC 275 0.270 0.515 145 -18
Pacific WCC 276 0.269 0.526 134 +11
Air Force MWC 277 0.268 0.482 186 +25
Tulsa AAC 278 0.268 0.330 340 +11
Dartmouth Ivy 279 0.267 0.311 356 +12
Iona MAAC 280 0.264 0.367 317 +27
Alabama St. SWAC 281 0.264 0.394 289 -8
Tennessee St. OVC 282 0.261 0.327 342 +13
Tennessee Tech OVC 283 0.260 0.363 320 -15
Monmouth CAA 284 0.259 0.444 229 -13
Bowling Green MAC 285 0.259 0.371 315 -2
Howard MEAC 286 0.257 0.433 246 -4
Tarleton St. WAC 287 0.255 0.557 109 +16
Manhattan MAAC 288 0.255 0.311 355 0
Utah Tech WAC 289 0.255 0.512 150 -15
UAlbany Am. East 290 0.254 0.318 349 +9
LIU NEC 291 0.254 0.333 337 +2
IU Indy Horizon 292 0.251 0.399 285 -20
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 293 0.251 0.384 302 +17
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 294 0.248 0.349 329 -71
Sacred Heart MAAC 295 0.247 0.330 339 -28
Stonehill NEC 296 0.240 0.318 350 +9
Loyola Maryland Patriot 297 0.239 0.282 363 +4
UMBC Am. East 298 0.239 0.301 360 -59
Portland WCC 299 0.238 0.564 106 -2
Lafayette Patriot 300 0.235 0.312 354 -34
Delaware St. MEAC 301 0.235 0.389 296 -5
Army West Point Patriot 302 0.234 0.339 335 +4
N.C. Central MEAC 303 0.233 0.361 323 +6
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 304 0.232 0.329 341 -12
Georgia St. Sunbelt 305 0.230 0.505 160 -5
Texas Southern SWAC 306 0.228 0.508 154 +12
Oral Roberts Summit 307 0.225 0.546 117 +9
Old Dominion Sunbelt 308 0.223 0.429 250 -27
Austin Peay A-Sun 309 0.220 0.518 140 +10
VMI Southern 310 0.219 0.377 308 +10
Navy Patriot 311 0.218 0.302 359 +3
N.C. A&T CAA 312 0.213 0.421 261 -4
Holy Cross Patriot 313 0.213 0.355 328 0
Niagara MAAC 314 0.208 0.310 357 -10
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 315 0.208 0.542 121 +25
Southern Ind. OVC 316 0.207 0.322 346 +13
Long Beach St. Big West 317 0.206 0.485 181 -33
Boston U. Patriot 318 0.205 0.315 351 -1
Prairie View SWAC 319 0.205 0.478 191 -7
Eastern Mich. MAC 320 0.201 0.377 307 +3
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 321 0.200 0.394 290 -10
Lehigh Patriot 322 0.195 0.409 275 -28
Grambling SWAC 323 0.192 0.529 130 +1
Buffalo MAC 324 0.192 0.477 192 +1
Rider MAAC 325 0.191 0.341 334 +19
Lindenwood OVC 326 0.187 0.375 312 -11
New Orleans Southland 327 0.185 0.571 95 +19
Central Ark. A-Sun 328 0.181 0.411 269 +3
Penn Ivy 329 0.180 0.444 230 +3
Louisiana Sunbelt 330 0.179 0.489 174 -2
Detroit Mercy Horizon 331 0.176 0.457 215 +2
Morgan St. MEAC 332 0.175 0.376 309 +10
Denver Summit 333 0.172 0.436 242 -3
Binghamton Am. East 334 0.169 0.293 361 -8
Green Bay Horizon 335 0.167 0.481 187 -13
USC Upstate Big South 336 0.166 0.467 204 -2
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 337 0.163 0.443 231 -16
West Ga. A-Sun 338 0.161 0.445 226 -3
Stony Brook CAA 339 0.157 0.439 238 +8
Fairfield MAAC 340 0.153 0.325 343 -13
Alcorn SWAC 341 0.153 0.567 104 +4
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 342 0.150 0.517 143 -1
Western Ill. OVC 343 0.147 0.313 352 -5
Eastern Ill. OVC 344 0.146 0.440 236 -5
Sacramento St. Big Sky 345 0.136 0.418 263 +4
Le Moyne NEC 346 0.135 0.362 322 -10
Canisius MAAC 347 0.131 0.424 258 +5
Stetson A-Sun 348 0.128 0.440 237 -5
ULM Sunbelt 349 0.123 0.342 333 -1
UMES MEAC 350 0.123 0.553 113 0
Western Caro. Southern 351 0.119 0.546 118 -14
Bellarmine A-Sun 352 0.118 0.439 239 -1
Mercyhurst NEC 353 0.117 0.321 347 +1
Florida A&M SWAC 354 0.113 0.614 66 +2
The Citadel Southern 355 0.112 0.422 260 0
Wagner NEC 356 0.105 0.292 362 -3
Alabama A&M SWAC 357 0.097 0.347 330 +1
Chicago St. NEC 358 0.093 0.505 159 +5
New Hampshire Am. East 359 0.090 0.324 344 0
NIU MAC 360 0.086 0.446 224 +2
NJIT Am. East 361 0.086 0.320 348 -4
Coppin St. MEAC 362 0.077 0.456 216 -2
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 363 0.069 0.430 249 -2
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.023 0.600 75 0