Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 1/12/25. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank
Houston Big 12 1 0.978 0.687 26
Duke ACC 2 0.973 0.746 11
Auburn SEC 3 0.969 0.769 5
Kansas Big 12 4 0.957 0.757 7
Florida SEC 5 0.952 0.596 72
Iowa St. Big 12 6 0.950 0.634 54
Tennessee SEC 7 0.944 0.647 46
Michigan Big 10 8 0.943 0.697 23
Alabama SEC 9 0.943 0.794 1
Illinois Big 10 10 0.937 0.660 34
Purdue Big 10 11 0.931 0.789 2
Arizona Big 12 12 0.931 0.716 18
Michigan St. Big 10 13 0.929 0.655 41
Marquette Big East 14 0.926 0.720 17
Texas Tech Big 12 15 0.921 0.593 75
Baylor Big 12 16 0.920 0.746 12
Gonzaga WCC 17 0.918 0.660 35
Maryland Big 10 18 0.916 0.530 140
Mississippi St. SEC 19 0.914 0.639 52
Texas A&M SEC 20 0.913 0.715 19
Kentucky SEC 21 0.911 0.725 16
Ole Miss SEC 22 0.900 0.611 65
Wisconsin Big 10 23 0.897 0.674 29
St. John’s (NY) Big East 24 0.890 0.618 62
Oregon Big 10 25 0.888 0.749 10
UConn Big East 26 0.885 0.625 61
Georgia SEC 27 0.883 0.572 95
Pittsburgh ACC 28 0.881 0.706 22
Louisville ACC 29 0.879 0.757 6
West Virginia Big 12 30 0.877 0.674 30
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 31 0.876 0.557 108
UCLA Big 10 32 0.875 0.658 38
San Diego St. MWC 33 0.870 0.740 13
Ohio St. Big 10 34 0.864 0.732 15
North Carolina ACC 35 0.861 0.783 3
Texas SEC 36 0.861 0.526 145
Clemson ACC 37 0.860 0.634 53
BYU Big 12 38 0.856 0.562 102
Memphis AAC 39 0.856 0.780 4
Vanderbilt SEC 40 0.854 0.498 174
Cincinnati Big 12 41 0.854 0.590 80
Missouri SEC 42 0.853 0.535 133
Iowa Big 10 43 0.842 0.595 73
Utah St. MWC 44 0.841 0.614 64
Villanova Big East 45 0.839 0.565 100
Nebraska Big 10 46 0.835 0.679 28
Arkansas SEC 47 0.831 0.650 43
Creighton Big East 48 0.830 0.756 8
UC Irvine Big West 49 0.828 0.538 129
SMU ACC 50 0.827 0.587 83
New Mexico MWC 51 0.826 0.649 45
UC San Diego Big West 52 0.823 0.488 184
Xavier Big East 53 0.823 0.632 56
Boise St. MWC 54 0.814 0.586 85
VCU A-10 55 0.812 0.457 226
Arizona St. Big 12 56 0.812 0.752 9
Northwestern Big 10 57 0.808 0.667 31
TCU Big 12 58 0.805 0.707 21
Penn St. Big 10 59 0.799 0.537 131
Oklahoma SEC 60 0.799 0.591 79
Oregon St. WCC 61 0.799 0.472 210
Southern California Big 10 62 0.797 0.661 33
Nevada MWC 63 0.796 0.634 55
McNeese Southland 64 0.786 0.554 111
Indiana Big 10 65 0.785 0.658 37
North Texas AAC 66 0.784 0.549 117
Georgetown Big East 67 0.773 0.498 173
Santa Clara WCC 68 0.772 0.625 60
Drake MVC 69 0.770 0.508 163
Colorado St. MWC 70 0.767 0.587 84
Florida St. ACC 71 0.767 0.574 91
LSU SEC 72 0.755 0.512 160
Dayton A-10 73 0.752 0.650 44
Utah Big 12 74 0.752 0.539 126
Notre Dame ACC 75 0.742 0.653 42
Yale Ivy 76 0.738 0.446 236
Liberty C-USA 77 0.737 0.443 243
St. Bonaventure A-10 78 0.730 0.444 240
George Mason A-10 79 0.722 0.464 217
Wake Forest ACC 80 0.721 0.561 105
Providence Big East 81 0.721 0.639 51
Washington St. WCC 82 0.717 0.593 76
Stanford ACC 83 0.716 0.555 110
Lipscomb A-Sun 84 0.711 0.469 214
Colorado Big 12 85 0.711 0.666 32
South Carolina SEC 86 0.710 0.627 57
UCF Big 12 87 0.707 0.688 25
Butler Big East 88 0.706 0.736 14
Saint Joseph’s A-10 89 0.688 0.461 219
NC State ACC 90 0.684 0.584 88
San Francisco WCC 91 0.683 0.502 170
Rutgers Big 10 92 0.680 0.659 36
Washington Big 10 93 0.679 0.683 27
South Alabama Sunbelt 94 0.674 0.402 288
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 95 0.671 0.512 159
High Point Big South 96 0.668 0.375 314
Bradley MVC 97 0.667 0.458 224
UNI MVC 98 0.666 0.507 165
North Dakota St. Summit 99 0.653 0.440 246
Grand Canyon WAC 100 0.648 0.479 199
New Mexico St. C-USA 101 0.644 0.543 122
Middle Tenn. C-USA 102 0.644 0.572 94
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 103 0.629 0.426 264
George Washington A-10 104 0.628 0.324 351
Fla. Atlantic AAC 105 0.625 0.601 69
Rhode Island A-10 106 0.625 0.442 245
UAB AAC 107 0.622 0.401 290
South Dakota St. Summit 108 0.621 0.553 113
Georgia Tech ACC 109 0.621 0.584 87
Kansas St. Big 12 110 0.619 0.582 89
Samford Southern 111 0.617 0.408 281
Murray St. MVC 112 0.610 0.525 146
Saint Louis A-10 113 0.605 0.493 178
UNC Greensboro Southern 114 0.603 0.534 135
California ACC 115 0.601 0.584 86
Davidson A-10 116 0.597 0.487 186
Northern Colo. Big Sky 117 0.597 0.517 153
Furman Southern 118 0.596 0.453 231
UIC MVC 119 0.589 0.561 103
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 120 0.588 0.528 142
Troy Sunbelt 121 0.586 0.530 138
Oklahoma St. Big 12 122 0.586 0.592 77
Kent St. MAC 123 0.586 0.438 248
UNLV MWC 124 0.584 0.605 68
Akron MAC 125 0.581 0.460 222
Utah Valley WAC 126 0.576 0.479 198
UC Santa Barbara Big West 127 0.576 0.364 326
Temple AAC 128 0.576 0.478 200
Minnesota Big 10 129 0.574 0.609 67
North Ala. A-Sun 130 0.571 0.401 291
Syracuse ACC 131 0.568 0.643 48
CSUN Big West 132 0.564 0.380 309
DePaul Big East 133 0.563 0.545 120
App State Sunbelt 134 0.560 0.509 162
Illinois St. MVC 135 0.560 0.482 194
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 136 0.552 0.399 292
Belmont MVC 137 0.552 0.522 149
Louisiana Tech C-USA 138 0.551 0.460 220
Wyoming MWC 139 0.547 0.549 116
Norfolk St. MEAC 140 0.547 0.433 256
Col. of Charleston CAA 141 0.547 0.471 212
Cornell Ivy 142 0.546 0.410 279
Hawaii Big West 143 0.541 0.482 192
Western Ky. C-USA 144 0.539 0.570 96
Duquesne A-10 145 0.537 0.524 147
Tulane AAC 146 0.535 0.414 276
Virginia Tech ACC 147 0.535 0.640 50
Princeton Ivy 148 0.529 0.443 242
LMU (CA) WCC 149 0.526 0.657 39
Miami (OH) MAC 150 0.525 0.397 293
Ohio MAC 151 0.525 0.390 299
UNCW CAA 152 0.525 0.426 263
Jacksonville St. C-USA 153 0.519 0.486 187
California Baptist WAC 154 0.518 0.530 139
Elon CAA 155 0.517 0.402 289
ETSU Southern 156 0.517 0.361 329
Miami (FL) ACC 157 0.512 0.553 114
Milwaukee Horizon 158 0.510 0.421 268
Wofford Southern 159 0.510 0.543 123
San Jose St. MWC 160 0.506 0.547 118
UTEP C-USA 161 0.505 0.516 155
South Fla. AAC 162 0.504 0.432 258
FGCU A-Sun 163 0.504 0.518 152
East Carolina AAC 164 0.502 0.503 169
Virginia ACC 165 0.501 0.642 49
Jacksonville A-Sun 166 0.500 0.538 128
Seattle U WAC 167 0.499 0.591 78
James Madison Sunbelt 168 0.497 0.564 101
Pepperdine WCC 169 0.496 0.534 136
Seton Hall Big East 170 0.481 0.553 112
La Salle A-10 171 0.478 0.521 151
Texas St. Sunbelt 172 0.476 0.450 234
Wichita St. AAC 173 0.476 0.523 148
UTRGV Southland 174 0.476 0.475 206
Cleveland St. Horizon 175 0.473 0.421 267
Sam Houston C-USA 176 0.465 0.587 81
Rice AAC 177 0.463 0.373 317
Chattanooga Southern 178 0.463 0.395 295
UNC Asheville Big South 179 0.456 0.450 233
Radford Big South 180 0.453 0.466 216
Oakland Horizon 181 0.453 0.626 59
Winthrop Big South 182 0.452 0.428 261
Valparaiso MVC 183 0.450 0.478 202
William & Mary CAA 184 0.449 0.393 297
Indiana St. MVC 185 0.445 0.425 266
UC Riverside Big West 186 0.445 0.561 104
Wright St. Horizon 187 0.444 0.431 260
Nicholls Southland 188 0.443 0.528 143
Towson CAA 189 0.442 0.506 166
Lamar University Southland 190 0.438 0.484 189
Omaha Summit 191 0.438 0.470 213
Loyola Chicago A-10 192 0.437 0.408 280
Kennesaw St. C-USA 193 0.436 0.534 134
Marshall Sunbelt 194 0.436 0.436 250
Montana St. Big Sky 195 0.431 0.506 167
Ball St. MAC 196 0.430 0.367 324
Southeastern La. Southland 197 0.427 0.437 249
Hofstra CAA 198 0.426 0.530 141
Bryant Am. East 199 0.424 0.414 274
Youngstown St. Horizon 200 0.424 0.362 327
Merrimack MAAC 201 0.423 0.445 239
Idaho St. Big Sky 202 0.422 0.491 182
Queens (NC) A-Sun 203 0.411 0.453 230
Drexel CAA 204 0.407 0.329 349
Southern U. SWAC 205 0.407 0.527 144
Toledo MAC 206 0.407 0.516 156
Longwood Big South 207 0.406 0.385 302
FIU C-USA 208 0.406 0.425 265
CSU Bakersfield Big West 209 0.405 0.491 181
Delaware CAA 210 0.402 0.377 310
Cal Poly Big West 211 0.402 0.567 98
Montana Big Sky 212 0.397 0.598 70
UT Arlington WAC 213 0.393 0.419 271
South Carolina St. MEAC 214 0.388 0.386 301
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 215 0.386 0.492 180
Massachusetts A-10 216 0.385 0.505 168
Northern Ky. Horizon 217 0.380 0.478 201
Marist MAAC 218 0.380 0.238 364
UMass Lowell Am. East 219 0.379 0.367 323
Northeastern CAA 220 0.379 0.380 308
Boston College ACC 221 0.377 0.483 191
Quinnipiac MAAC 222 0.375 0.373 315
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 223 0.375 0.383 304
Columbia Ivy 224 0.375 0.287 362
Weber St. Big Sky 225 0.371 0.572 93
Richmond A-10 226 0.368 0.510 161
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 227 0.368 0.568 97
Kansas City Summit 228 0.368 0.438 247
Central Mich. MAC 229 0.365 0.657 40
Robert Morris Horizon 230 0.364 0.369 319
South Dakota Summit 231 0.362 0.420 270
North Florida A-Sun 232 0.362 0.539 127
Colgate Patriot 233 0.362 0.432 257
Little Rock OVC 234 0.357 0.408 282
Brown Ivy 235 0.357 0.414 273
Central Conn. St. NEC 236 0.352 0.317 354
UIW Southland 237 0.350 0.375 312
SIUE OVC 238 0.348 0.356 334
UMBC Am. East 239 0.348 0.323 352
Fresno St. MWC 240 0.346 0.598 71
SFA Southland 241 0.346 0.457 227
Hampton CAA 242 0.345 0.474 208
Portland St. Big Sky 243 0.343 0.380 307
UTSA AAC 244 0.343 0.481 195
Idaho Big Sky 245 0.342 0.457 225
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 246 0.338 0.540 124
Southern Utah WAC 247 0.338 0.496 175
Missouri St. MVC 248 0.337 0.482 193
Mercer Southern 249 0.336 0.358 332
Maine Am. East 250 0.335 0.335 344
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 251 0.334 0.367 321
North Dakota Summit 252 0.329 0.489 183
Northwestern St. Southland 253 0.323 0.561 106
Campbell CAA 254 0.323 0.375 313
Fordham A-10 255 0.321 0.484 188
UT Martin OVC 256 0.319 0.384 303
Abilene Christian WAC 257 0.318 0.507 164
Southern Ill. MVC 258 0.312 0.536 132
Gardner-Webb Big South 259 0.311 0.476 204
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 260 0.311 0.402 287
Charlotte AAC 261 0.302 0.445 238
Evansville MVC 262 0.301 0.513 158
Saint Peter’s MAAC 263 0.299 0.334 345
Bucknell Patriot 264 0.298 0.454 229
Charleston So. Big South 265 0.294 0.550 115
Lafayette Patriot 266 0.293 0.323 353
Sacred Heart MAAC 267 0.292 0.332 347
Tennessee Tech OVC 268 0.292 0.366 325
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 269 0.291 0.452 232
Presbyterian Big South 270 0.289 0.380 306
Monmouth CAA 271 0.289 0.474 207
IU Indy Horizon 272 0.284 0.397 294
Alabama St. SWAC 273 0.283 0.442 244
Utah Tech WAC 274 0.282 0.515 157
Houston Christian Southland 275 0.280 0.475 205
Harvard Ivy 276 0.279 0.388 300
Siena MAAC 277 0.274 0.373 316
Morehead St. OVC 278 0.271 0.395 296
UC Davis Big West 279 0.271 0.460 221
Vermont Am. East 280 0.271 0.406 283
Old Dominion Sunbelt 281 0.270 0.433 255
Howard MEAC 282 0.270 0.492 179
Bowling Green MAC 283 0.269 0.414 275
Long Beach St. Big West 284 0.268 0.476 203
Western Mich. MAC 285 0.265 0.496 176
Jackson St. SWAC 286 0.265 0.697 24
Pacific WCC 287 0.264 0.538 130
Manhattan MAAC 288 0.261 0.333 346
Tulsa AAC 289 0.260 0.316 356
San Diego WCC 290 0.260 0.567 99
Dartmouth Ivy 291 0.260 0.304 360
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 292 0.256 0.327 350
LIU NEC 293 0.255 0.360 330
Lehigh Patriot 294 0.252 0.455 228
Tennessee St. OVC 295 0.252 0.339 343
Delaware St. MEAC 296 0.252 0.420 269
Portland WCC 297 0.251 0.594 74
American Patriot 298 0.250 0.413 277
UAlbany Am. East 299 0.250 0.316 357
Georgia St. Sunbelt 300 0.249 0.500 172
Loyola Maryland Patriot 301 0.248 0.296 361
Air Force MWC 302 0.246 0.472 209
Tarleton St. WAC 303 0.243 0.556 109
Niagara MAAC 304 0.241 0.349 336
Stonehill NEC 305 0.240 0.317 355
Army West Point Patriot 306 0.238 0.368 320
Iona MAAC 307 0.235 0.382 305
N.C. A&T CAA 308 0.234 0.433 254
N.C. Central MEAC 309 0.230 0.367 322
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 310 0.229 0.405 285
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 311 0.228 0.411 278
Prairie View SWAC 312 0.225 0.540 125
Holy Cross Patriot 313 0.215 0.351 335
Navy Patriot 314 0.215 0.285 363
Lindenwood OVC 315 0.215 0.393 298
Oral Roberts Summit 316 0.207 0.543 121
Boston U. Patriot 317 0.201 0.331 348
Texas Southern SWAC 318 0.200 0.627 58
Austin Peay A-Sun 319 0.199 0.502 171
VMI Southern 320 0.198 0.435 252
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 321 0.191 0.480 196
Green Bay Horizon 322 0.188 0.495 177
Eastern Mich. MAC 323 0.187 0.375 311
Grambling SWAC 324 0.186 0.587 82
Buffalo MAC 325 0.184 0.517 154
Binghamton Am. East 326 0.183 0.307 359
Fairfield MAAC 327 0.180 0.361 328
Louisiana Sunbelt 328 0.179 0.521 150
Southern Ind. OVC 329 0.179 0.343 339
Denver Summit 330 0.178 0.427 262
Central Ark. A-Sun 331 0.177 0.415 272
Penn Ivy 332 0.176 0.433 253
Detroit Mercy Horizon 333 0.173 0.460 223
USC Upstate Big South 334 0.173 0.487 185
West Ga. A-Sun 335 0.172 0.468 215
Le Moyne NEC 336 0.167 0.404 286
Western Caro. Southern 337 0.164 0.574 92
Western Ill. OVC 338 0.160 0.340 342
Eastern Ill. OVC 339 0.160 0.471 211
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 340 0.159 0.546 119
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 341 0.157 0.560 107
Morgan St. MEAC 342 0.157 0.371 318
Stetson A-Sun 343 0.157 0.463 218
Rider MAAC 344 0.153 0.348 338
Alcorn SWAC 345 0.153 0.611 66
New Orleans Southland 346 0.147 0.615 63
Stony Brook CAA 347 0.142 0.445 237
ULM Sunbelt 348 0.136 0.343 340
Sacramento St. Big Sky 349 0.128 0.406 284
UMES MEAC 350 0.127 0.575 90
Bellarmine A-Sun 351 0.124 0.436 251
Canisius MAAC 352 0.121 0.448 235
Wagner NEC 353 0.114 0.312 358
Mercyhurst NEC 354 0.112 0.349 337
The Citadel Southern 355 0.104 0.432 259
Florida A&M SWAC 356 0.097 0.710 20
NJIT Am. East 357 0.090 0.342 341
Alabama A&M SWAC 358 0.085 0.358 331
New Hampshire Am. East 359 0.080 0.357 333
Coppin St. MEAC 360 0.079 0.480 197
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 361 0.077 0.483 190
NIU MAC 362 0.075 0.443 241
Chicago St. NEC 363 0.075 0.531 137
Mississippi Val. SWAC 364 0.026 0.644 47