| Candidate | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Chance of Winning Election | 68% | 32% |
| Average Electoral Votes | 282 | 256 |
| Median Electoral Votes | 287 | 251 |
| Mode Electoral Votes | 312 | 226 |
| National Popular Vote | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| Chance of Winning Popular Vote | 39% | 61% |
Going into election day, Donald Trump is currently favored to win, winning the election 68% of the time with an average of 282 electoral votes, compared to Harris’s 32% chance of winning and 256 electoral votes. Trump is buoyed by increased support among non-white voters compared to four years ago, whereas Harris has either stagnated or fallen among the white voters she needs to win the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Competitive States
| State | Rating | Projected Margin | Trump Chance of Winning | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Lean Republican | Trump +3 | 71% | 11 |
| Florida | Likely Republican | Trump +7 | 91% | 30 |
| Georgia | Lean Republican | Trump +4 | 79% | 16 |
| Iowa | Solid Republican | Trump +10 | 97% | 6 |
| Maine | Likely Democratic | Harris +8 | 7% | 2 |
| Maine 2nd District | Solid Republican | Trump +9 | 95% | 1 |
| Michigan | Toss-Up | Harris +0.1 | 50% | 15 |
| Minnesota | Lean Democratic | Harris +5 | 18% | 10 |
| Nebraska 2nd District | Lean Democratic | Harris +5 | 20% | 1 |
| Nevada | Tilt Republican | Trump +2 | 61% | 6 |
| New Hampshire | Likely Democratic | Harris +6 | 15% | 4 |
| New Mexico | Likely Democratic | Harris +7 | 11% | 5 |
| North Carolina | Lean Republican | Trump +5 | 82% | 16 |
| Ohio | Solid Republican | Trump +11 | 98% | 17 |
| Pennsylvania | Tilt Republican | Trump +1 | 61% | 19 |
| Texas | Solid Republican | Trump +10 | 97% | 40 |
| Virginia | Likely Democratic | Harris +6 | 12% | 13 |
| Wisconsin | Tilt Republican | Trump +1 | 61% | 10 |
Non Competitive States
| State | Rating | Projected Margin | Trump Chance of Winning | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Solid Republican | Trump +29 | 100% | 9 |
| Alaska | Solid Republican | Trump +14 | 100% | 3 |
| Arkansas | Solid Republican | Trump +31 | 100% | 6 |
| California | Solid Democratic | Harris +25 | 0% | 54 |
| Colorado | Solid Democratic | Harris +11 | 2% | 10 |
| Connecticut | Solid Democratic | Harris +17 | 0% | 7 |
| Delaware | Solid Democratic | Harris +16 | 0% | 3 |
| District of Columbia | Solid Democratic | Harris +83 | 0% | 3 |
| Hawaii | Solid Democratic | Harris +23 | 0% | 4 |
| Idaho | Solid Republican | Trump +34 | 100% | 4 |
| Illinois | Solid Democratic | Harris +14 | 1% | 19 |
| Indiana | Solid Republican | Trump +19 | 100% | 11 |
| Kansas | Solid Republican | Trump +17 | 100% | 6 |
| Kentucky | Solid Republican | Trump +28 | 100% | 8 |
| Louisiana | Solid Republican | Trump +23 | 100% | 8 |
| Maine 1st District | Solid Democratic | Harris +22 | 0% | 1 |
| Maryland | Solid Democratic | Harris +29 | 0% | 10 |
| Massachusetts | Solid Democratic | Harris +31 | 0% | 11 |
| Mississippi | Solid Republican | Trump +21 | 100% | 6 |
| Missouri | Solid Republican | Trump +18 | 100% | 10 |
| Montana | Solid Republican | Trump +19 | 100% | 4 |
| Nebraska | Solid Republican | Trump +22 | 100% | 2 |
| Nebraska 1st District | Solid Republican | Trump +17 | 100% | 1 |
| Nebraska 3rd District | Solid Republican | Trump +56 | 100% | 1 |
| New Jersey | Solid Democratic | Harris +12 | 1% | 14 |
| New York | Solid Democratic | Harris +19 | 0% | 28 |
| North Dakota | Solid Republican | Trump +36 | 100% | 3 |
| Oklahoma | Solid Republican | Trump +37 | 100% | 7 |
| Oregon | Solid Democratic | Harris +14 | 0% | 8 |
| Rhode Island | Solid Democratic | Harris +19 | 0% | 4 |
| South Carolina | Solid Republican | Trump +16 | 100% | 9 |
| South Dakota | Solid Republican | Trump +29 | 100% | 3 |
| Tennessee | Solid Republican | Trump +26 | 100% | 11 |
| Utah | Solid Republican | Trump +24 | 100% | 6 |
| Vermont | Solid Democratic | Harris +35 | 0% | 3 |
| Washington | Solid Democratic | Harris +17 | 0% | 12 |
| West Virginia | Solid Republican | Trump +41 | 100% | 4 |
| Wyoming | Solid Republican | Trump +47 | 100% | 3 |
Forecast Model Methodology
For the last two Presidential election cycles, the state polling has been utterly dreadful. As a result, models based on state polls have significantly underestimated Trump’s chances of winning both times. That didn’t mean all of the polls were useless, however. Specifically, national polls that weighted properly for education did fairly well at predicting the popular vote in 2016, and also showed large shifts in white working class voters that ended up leading to Trump’s victory. These shifts just were not reflected in the state polling.
As a result, my model uses the high quality national polls, and compares demographic trends in the cross-tabs between the 2020 and 2024 pre-election polls. I then use the demographic breakdown of the likely voter electorate in each state to estimate how each state will shift from 2020 to 2024. This method has been more accurate at predicting the result than using the state polls in the past two Presidential elections, as national polls correctly predicted Trump’s surge with non-college whites in 2016 and Hispanics in 2020 as well as Biden’s improvement with college educated whites in 2020. Importantly, I am comparing each poll with the exact same pollster’s pre-election poll in 2020, to ensure that there are no methodological reasons for the differences (which would exist when comparing a pre-election poll to an exit poll). Finally, I run 10,000 simulations of the election, modeling the potential for a national polling error as well as state-level variance.
Projected Demographic Shifts by Demographic
This analysis used the final national polls issued by NYT/Siena, Marist, Fox News, Pew, CNN/SSRS, Quinnipiac, the Cooperative Election Study, and NBC in both 2020 and 2024. Of course, the polls were not accurate in 2020; they overestimated Biden by around 4 points in the national popular vote. We aren’t going to assume that a similar error will happen this time, so as a result when projecting shifts between 2020 and 2024, my model does not assume the shifts will be as large as shown by the pre-election polls, adjusting the shifts down by roughly 4 points, reaching the following projections:
As you can see, while Trump has gained at least some ground in every demographic, his gains are much larger relatively with non-white voters than with white voters. As a result, my model has Trump with a more comfortable lead in the diverse Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia compared to whiter swing states in the North like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This does leave open a path for Harris to win, as just a moderate polling error in her favor would allow her to carry Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to exactly 270 electoral votes.
Still, my model has Trump ahead in six out of seven most competitive states. Only in Michigan, which my model shows as exactly tied, is Trump not ahead. Unlike other forecasts, which show a toss-up race, my model has Trump as a strong if not overwhelming favorite to win the election.