Data includes all division 1 games through Wednesday, 3/20/24. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Sunday
Houston Big 12 1 0.961 0.759 9 0
UConn Big East 2 0.952 0.681 72 0
Iowa St. Big 12 3 0.940 0.723 33 0
Auburn SEC 4 0.935 0.690 61 0
Purdue Big 10 5 0.934 0.773 6 0
Arizona Pac 12 6 0.933 0.729 22 0
Tennessee SEC 7 0.917 0.739 17 0
North Carolina ACC 8 0.910 0.733 18 0
Duke ACC 9 0.906 0.687 65 0
Creighton Big East 10 0.900 0.719 35 0
Marquette Big East 11 0.897 0.759 10 0
Baylor Big 12 12 0.896 0.780 2 0
Illinois Big 10 13 0.896 0.725 27 0
BYU Big 12 14 0.895 0.715 41 0
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 15 0.891 0.591 100 0
Alabama SEC 16 0.884 0.768 7 0
Gonzaga WCC 17 0.881 0.577 105 0
Michigan St. Big 10 18 0.876 0.756 12 0
Kansas Big 12 19 0.871 0.783 1 0
New Mexico MWC 20 0.868 0.655 84 +1
San Diego St. MWC 21 0.864 0.724 29 +3
Texas Tech Big 12 22 0.864 0.745 14 -2
Wisconsin Big 10 23 0.863 0.774 5 -1
Texas Big 12 24 0.861 0.739 16 -1
Colorado Pac 12 25 0.857 0.695 59 +4
TCU Big 12 26 0.856 0.698 56 -1
St. John’s (NY) Big East 27 0.853 0.725 26 -1
Kentucky SEC 28 0.852 0.686 67 0
Cincinnati Big 12 29 0.849 0.727 25 -2
Nebraska Big 10 30 0.845 0.684 68 0
Pittsburgh ACC 31 0.840 0.664 82 0
Boise St. MWC 32 0.837 0.707 47 0
Mississippi St. SEC 33 0.837 0.720 34 0
Colorado St. MWC 34 0.837 0.702 51 +10
Wake Forest ACC 35 0.837 0.679 74 0
Oklahoma Big 12 36 0.831 0.716 37 0
Florida SEC 37 0.830 0.706 49 0
Washington St. Pac 12 38 0.830 0.664 81 +1
Clemson ACC 39 0.829 0.715 39 -1
Nevada MWC 40 0.829 0.631 89 +1
Dayton A-10 41 0.829 0.641 86 -1
Utah Pac 12 42 0.822 0.729 23 +1
Villanova Big East 43 0.821 0.732 21 -9
Ohio St. Big 10 44 0.817 0.707 48 -2
Fla. Atlantic AAC 45 0.813 0.619 91 +1
Indiana St. MVC 46 0.811 0.525 130 +1
Northwestern Big 10 47 0.804 0.695 58 +1
Utah St. MWC 48 0.803 0.635 88 +2
Texas A&M SEC 49 0.803 0.715 40 0
UCF Big 12 50 0.799 0.724 31 -5
Iowa Big 10 51 0.798 0.728 24 0
Drake MVC 52 0.789 0.544 121 +2
Grand Canyon WAC 53 0.788 0.466 169 0
Oregon Pac 12 54 0.786 0.706 50 +1
Virginia Tech ACC 55 0.783 0.690 60 +5
Providence Big East 56 0.780 0.713 43 -4
NC State ACC 57 0.779 0.689 64 0
Bradley MVC 58 0.776 0.575 106 +5
South Carolina SEC 59 0.775 0.650 85 -1
Kansas St. Big 12 60 0.775 0.758 11 -4
Washington Pac 12 61 0.772 0.710 44 0
Xavier Big East 62 0.767 0.761 8 -3
Butler Big East 63 0.759 0.724 30 -1
Seton Hall Big East 64 0.759 0.710 45 0
UNLV MWC 65 0.755 0.676 77 +6
Maryland Big 10 66 0.755 0.689 63 0
McNeese Southland 67 0.755 0.334 314 0
San Francisco WCC 68 0.754 0.500 143 +2
James Madison Sunbelt 69 0.753 0.371 284 -1
VCU A-10 70 0.748 0.618 92 +4
SMU AAC 71 0.747 0.571 108 -2
North Texas AAC 72 0.742 0.608 97 +1
Boston College ACC 73 0.742 0.672 79 -1
Virginia ACC 74 0.740 0.675 78 -9
Minnesota Big 10 75 0.733 0.659 83 +3
Southern California Pac 12 76 0.729 0.732 20 0
Penn St. Big 10 77 0.728 0.690 62 -2
Memphis AAC 78 0.728 0.610 96 -1
Duquesne A-10 79 0.721 0.616 93 0
South Fla. AAC 80 0.720 0.522 132 +5
Florida St. ACC 81 0.716 0.725 28 +2
UC Irvine Big West 82 0.715 0.482 151 0
Richmond A-10 83 0.708 0.557 113 -3
Princeton Ivy 84 0.702 0.471 163 -3
Loyola Chicago A-10 85 0.701 0.570 109 -1
App State Sunbelt 86 0.698 0.451 185 0
Massachusetts A-10 87 0.698 0.527 129 0
Miami (FL) ACC 88 0.692 0.678 76 +1
Georgia SEC 89 0.688 0.700 54 +4
George Mason A-10 90 0.686 0.555 114 +1
Syracuse ACC 91 0.686 0.723 32 +1
Yale Ivy 92 0.685 0.495 147 -2
Saint Joseph’s A-10 93 0.685 0.547 120 +2
LSU SEC 94 0.683 0.671 80 -6
Indiana Big 10 95 0.683 0.743 15 -1
Ole Miss SEC 96 0.681 0.683 70 0
Samford Southern 97 0.681 0.410 233 0
St. Bonaventure A-10 98 0.678 0.559 112 0
UCLA Pac 12 99 0.676 0.687 66 0
Stanford Pac 12 100 0.667 0.683 71 0
Louisiana Tech C-USA 101 0.666 0.470 166 +1
Rutgers Big 10 102 0.663 0.716 38 -1
UAB AAC 103 0.660 0.600 98 0
Santa Clara WCC 104 0.655 0.547 119 +2
Col. of Charleston CAA 105 0.653 0.430 212 0
Oklahoma St. Big 12 106 0.652 0.719 36 -2
Vermont Am. East 107 0.642 0.411 232 0
Cornell Ivy 108 0.641 0.464 172 0
Arkansas SEC 109 0.633 0.702 52 0
Seattle U WAC 110 0.619 0.476 157 0
UNI MVC 111 0.618 0.580 104 +1
UT Arlington WAC 112 0.617 0.534 125 -1
Belmont MVC 113 0.611 0.538 124 0
Charlotte AAC 114 0.610 0.571 107 +2
Hofstra CAA 115 0.609 0.456 176 -1
Notre Dame ACC 116 0.607 0.696 57 -1
California Pac 12 117 0.603 0.699 55 +1
Western Caro. Southern 118 0.603 0.422 223 -1
Davidson A-10 119 0.597 0.595 99 0
Akron MAC 120 0.596 0.431 208 0
Southern Ill. MVC 121 0.594 0.515 136 +1
Georgia Tech ACC 122 0.593 0.713 42 -1
UC San Diego Big West 123 0.590 0.433 203 0
Michigan Big 10 124 0.584 0.775 4 0
Tulane AAC 125 0.581 0.583 103 +1
UNCW CAA 126 0.576 0.431 209 +1
West Virginia Big 12 127 0.576 0.777 3 -2
Arizona St. Pac 12 128 0.574 0.733 19 +3
Western Ky. C-USA 129 0.574 0.406 240 -1
Drexel CAA 130 0.571 0.415 228 0
South Dakota St. Summit 131 0.571 0.433 205 -2
Morehead St. OVC 132 0.569 0.331 318 0
Troy Sunbelt 133 0.568 0.429 215 0
Tarleton St. WAC 134 0.566 0.496 146 0
High Point Big South 135 0.566 0.370 285 0
Toledo MAC 136 0.560 0.451 186 0
Oakland Horizon 137 0.557 0.447 189 0
Ohio MAC 138 0.553 0.381 271 0
Youngstown St. Horizon 139 0.550 0.369 287 0
Wichita St. AAC 140 0.549 0.589 101 +1
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 141 0.548 0.477 156 -1
Towson CAA 142 0.547 0.456 178 0
Sam Houston WAC 143 0.544 0.462 174 0
Oregon St. Pac 12 144 0.542 0.707 46 +2
Colgate Patriot 145 0.541 0.331 319 -1
Missouri SEC 146 0.541 0.679 73 -1
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 147 0.536 0.365 288 0
Liberty C-USA 148 0.532 0.464 171 +2
Wyoming MWC 149 0.532 0.639 87 +2
Furman Southern 150 0.532 0.462 175 -1
Chattanooga Southern 151 0.532 0.408 237 -3
Missouri St. MVC 152 0.525 0.528 128 0
UNC Greensboro Southern 153 0.519 0.432 206 0
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 154 0.510 0.332 316 0
Weber St. Big Sky 155 0.507 0.409 235 +1
Montana Big Sky 156 0.507 0.407 239 -1
UMass Lowell Am. East 157 0.505 0.354 300 0
Louisiana Sunbelt 158 0.503 0.446 190 0
Hawaii Big West 159 0.501 0.437 200 +1
Wright St. Horizon 160 0.501 0.411 230 +2
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 161 0.501 0.427 217 -2
Longwood Big South 162 0.499 0.355 299 -1
Murray St. MVC 163 0.496 0.550 115 0
Long Beach St. Big West 164 0.490 0.452 183 0
Kent St. MAC 165 0.489 0.436 201 0
UC Davis Big West 166 0.487 0.431 210 0
Utah Valley WAC 167 0.485 0.512 139 0
LMU (CA) WCC 168 0.477 0.514 137 +3
Fordham A-10 169 0.476 0.548 116 -1
UTEP C-USA 170 0.473 0.476 158 -1
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 171 0.471 0.342 306 -1
UNC Asheville Big South 172 0.471 0.434 202 0
SFA WAC 173 0.471 0.465 170 0
Temple AAC 174 0.468 0.548 117 +2
Fairfield MAAC 175 0.466 0.332 315 -1
Stony Brook CAA 176 0.465 0.443 195 -1
Delaware CAA 177 0.465 0.394 256 0
Lipscomb A-Sun 178 0.462 0.377 276 0
ETSU Southern 179 0.460 0.440 198 +1
Quinnipiac MAAC 180 0.457 0.312 335 +2
Saint Louis A-10 181 0.457 0.620 90 +3
Louisville ACC 182 0.456 0.678 75 +1
Brown Ivy 183 0.456 0.470 167 -2
Georgetown Big East 184 0.455 0.683 69 -5
Vanderbilt SEC 185 0.454 0.701 53 0
Illinois St. MVC 186 0.452 0.511 140 +2
La Salle A-10 187 0.452 0.521 133 -1
Bryant Am. East 188 0.452 0.420 225 -1
Winthrop Big South 189 0.449 0.411 231 0
East Carolina AAC 190 0.448 0.541 122 +1
Tulsa AAC 191 0.445 0.473 162 +2
Little Rock OVC 192 0.443 0.286 350 -2
George Washington A-10 193 0.443 0.500 144 -1
Texas St. Sunbelt 194 0.439 0.504 142 0
California Baptist WAC 195 0.429 0.449 187 0
UIC MVC 196 0.427 0.538 123 +1
Cleveland St. Horizon 197 0.426 0.382 268 -1
Northern Ky. Horizon 198 0.422 0.408 238 +1
Saint Peter’s MAAC 199 0.422 0.344 305 -1
Monmouth CAA 200 0.420 0.429 214 0
Kansas City Summit 201 0.417 0.402 244 0
Wofford Southern 202 0.415 0.471 165 0
Lamar University Southland 203 0.414 0.318 329 0
Pepperdine WCC 204 0.412 0.522 131 +2
Northern Colo. Big Sky 205 0.412 0.373 281 -1
Rhode Island A-10 206 0.410 0.588 102 -1
Abilene Christian WAC 207 0.406 0.476 159 0
Jacksonville St. C-USA 208 0.406 0.424 221 0
UC Santa Barbara Big West 209 0.405 0.428 216 0
Rice AAC 210 0.403 0.566 110 +1
UC Riverside Big West 211 0.400 0.473 161 +1
Mercer Southern 212 0.397 0.445 192 +2
Penn Ivy 213 0.396 0.520 135 0
Fresno St. MWC 214 0.395 0.612 94 +3
Gardner-Webb Big South 215 0.392 0.471 164 +1
Georgia St. Sunbelt 216 0.390 0.443 194 +2
Rider MAAC 217 0.390 0.395 255 -2
Milwaukee Horizon 218 0.388 0.388 264 +1
North Dakota Summit 219 0.388 0.358 293 +1
Stetson A-Sun 220 0.387 0.406 241 +1
Montana St. Big Sky 221 0.385 0.397 252 -11
Merrimack NEC 222 0.385 0.285 351 0
Evansville MVC 223 0.384 0.520 134 +1
Nicholls Southland 224 0.382 0.394 258 -1
UT Martin OVC 225 0.381 0.313 333 0
Marist MAAC 226 0.379 0.295 344 0
UTSA AAC 227 0.379 0.484 150 0
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 228 0.375 0.396 253 0
Austin Peay A-Sun 229 0.373 0.395 254 0
San Jose St. MWC 230 0.373 0.612 95 +3
CSUN Big West 231 0.372 0.392 259 -1
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 232 0.368 0.481 153 -1
CSU Bakersfield Big West 233 0.368 0.448 188 -1
South Alabama Sunbelt 234 0.364 0.425 220 0
Harvard Ivy 235 0.362 0.454 181 0
Bowling Green MAC 236 0.358 0.351 302 0
FGCU A-Sun 237 0.356 0.409 234 0
UAlbany Am. East 238 0.353 0.372 282 0
Maine Am. East 239 0.352 0.388 265 +1
Iona MAAC 240 0.352 0.352 301 +2
Columbia Ivy 241 0.352 0.409 236 -2
Marshall Sunbelt 242 0.352 0.482 152 -1
Southern Utah WAC 243 0.350 0.481 154 +2
Radford Big South 244 0.350 0.413 229 -1
Green Bay Horizon 245 0.350 0.398 251 -1
Air Force MWC 246 0.349 0.559 111 +2
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 247 0.349 0.442 196 -1
Northeastern CAA 248 0.343 0.426 218 -1
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 249 0.340 0.305 340 0
New Hampshire Am. East 250 0.339 0.419 226 0
North Florida A-Sun 251 0.338 0.381 270 0
North Ala. A-Sun 252 0.338 0.380 273 0
Idaho St. Big Sky 253 0.334 0.379 275 0
Norfolk St. MEAC 254 0.334 0.290 347 0
Omaha Summit 255 0.331 0.391 262 0
Portland St. Big Sky 256 0.329 0.381 269 0
North Dakota St. Summit 257 0.325 0.440 199 0
Miami (OH) MAC 258 0.325 0.391 261 0
Denver Summit 259 0.324 0.399 250 +1
San Diego WCC 260 0.324 0.512 138 +3
Lehigh Patriot 261 0.323 0.319 328 -2
The Citadel Southern 262 0.321 0.431 211 0
UMBC Am. East 263 0.320 0.355 298 -2
Ball St. MAC 264 0.320 0.342 307 0
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 265 0.317 0.445 191 0
Oral Roberts Summit 266 0.312 0.455 179 +1
Queens (NC) A-Sun 267 0.312 0.424 222 -1
N.C. Central MEAC 268 0.306 0.266 356 0
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 269 0.305 0.358 295 +1
Bucknell Patriot 270 0.304 0.330 320 -1
Presbyterian Big South 271 0.303 0.357 297 0
Central Conn. St. NEC 272 0.299 0.246 362 0
Grambling SWAC 273 0.294 0.336 313 +10
FIU C-USA 274 0.294 0.454 180 -1
Utah Tech WAC 275 0.292 0.478 155 -1
Texas Southern SWAC 276 0.288 0.313 334 0
Niagara MAAC 277 0.287 0.315 330 -2
Central Mich. MAC 278 0.286 0.399 249 -1
Canisius MAAC 279 0.285 0.379 274 -1
Middle Tenn. C-USA 280 0.284 0.504 141 0
Jacksonville A-Sun 281 0.283 0.383 266 -2
Binghamton Am. East 282 0.281 0.377 277 0
Western Ill. OVC 283 0.280 0.308 337 +2
Old Dominion Sunbelt 284 0.279 0.475 160 0
Portland WCC 285 0.279 0.547 118 +1
Howard MEAC 286 0.277 0.288 349 -5
Southern U. SWAC 287 0.276 0.341 310 0
SIUE OVC 288 0.271 0.307 339 0
USC Upstate Big South 289 0.267 0.425 219 0
American Patriot 290 0.262 0.266 357 +1
ULM Sunbelt 291 0.262 0.456 177 +1
New Mexico St. C-USA 292 0.259 0.533 126 +2
Sacred Heart NEC 293 0.258 0.262 358 0
DePaul Big East 294 0.258 0.756 13 -4
Wagner NEC 295 0.256 0.256 360 +2
Tennessee St. OVC 296 0.254 0.303 342 -1
Le Moyne NEC 297 0.253 0.256 359 -1
NIU MAC 298 0.250 0.464 173 0
Western Mich. MAC 299 0.249 0.401 245 0
Robert Morris Horizon 300 0.249 0.394 257 0
Valparaiso MVC 301 0.248 0.532 127 +1
Southeastern La. Southland 302 0.248 0.372 283 -1
Boston U. Patriot 303 0.246 0.280 352 0
Chicago St. Independent 304 0.245 0.415 227 0
Delaware St. MEAC 305 0.243 0.290 346 0
Alcorn SWAC 306 0.234 0.350 303 +1
Sacramento St. Big Sky 307 0.233 0.421 224 -1
Campbell CAA 308 0.228 0.358 296 0
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 309 0.227 0.441 197 0
Jackson St. SWAC 310 0.223 0.311 336 +1
William & Mary CAA 311 0.222 0.359 292 -1
Bellarmine A-Sun 312 0.219 0.445 193 0
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 313 0.216 0.273 353 0
South Dakota Summit 314 0.215 0.377 280 0
South Carolina St. MEAC 315 0.213 0.329 322 0
Elon CAA 316 0.213 0.362 291 0
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 317 0.212 0.405 243 0
Eastern Ill. OVC 318 0.208 0.329 321 0
Idaho Big Sky 319 0.207 0.391 260 0
Navy Patriot 320 0.202 0.251 361 0
Alabama St. SWAC 321 0.201 0.319 327 +2
Lafayette Patriot 322 0.201 0.339 312 -1
Northwestern St. Southland 323 0.200 0.365 289 -1
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.194 0.467 168 0
Eastern Mich. MAC 325 0.184 0.364 290 0
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 326 0.173 0.399 248 0
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 327 0.172 0.266 355 0
Alabama A&M SWAC 328 0.171 0.305 341 0
UTRGV WAC 329 0.170 0.494 148 0
Southern Ind. OVC 330 0.169 0.350 304 0
Cal Poly Big West 331 0.166 0.453 182 0
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 332 0.163 0.301 343 0
NJIT Am. East 333 0.160 0.399 247 0
New Orleans Southland 334 0.156 0.377 279 +1
Dartmouth Ivy 335 0.156 0.484 149 -1
Central Ark. A-Sun 336 0.152 0.358 294 0
UIW Southland 337 0.149 0.323 325 0
Manhattan MAAC 338 0.146 0.383 267 +1
Morgan St. MEAC 339 0.146 0.339 311 -1
Prairie View SWAC 340 0.145 0.323 326 +2
Tennessee Tech OVC 341 0.144 0.341 309 0
Hampton CAA 342 0.144 0.369 286 -2
Buffalo MAC 343 0.142 0.432 207 0
Florida A&M SWAC 344 0.137 0.391 263 0
Detroit Mercy Horizon 345 0.132 0.433 204 0
N.C. A&T Big South 346 0.130 0.406 242 0
Army West Point Patriot 347 0.130 0.271 354 0
Holy Cross Patriot 348 0.125 0.289 348 0
LIU NEC 349 0.124 0.308 338 0
Loyola Maryland Patriot 350 0.121 0.314 332 0
Pacific WCC 351 0.117 0.497 145 +1
Houston Christian Southland 352 0.115 0.430 213 -1
UMES MEAC 353 0.109 0.326 323 0
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 354 0.105 0.332 317 0
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 355 0.096 0.295 345 0
Lindenwood OVC 356 0.096 0.314 331 0
Siena MAAC 357 0.089 0.377 278 0
Stonehill NEC 358 0.087 0.341 308 0
VMI Southern 359 0.084 0.452 184 0
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.077 0.380 272 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.060 0.324 324 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.043 0.400 246 0