Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/17/24. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.962 0.762 10 0
UConn Big East 2 0.954 0.687 68 0
Iowa St. Big 12 3 0.941 0.725 30 +4
Auburn SEC 4 0.935 0.691 61 +2
Purdue Big 10 5 0.934 0.774 6 -2
Arizona Pac 12 6 0.933 0.729 25 -2
Tennessee SEC 7 0.918 0.740 17 -2
North Carolina ACC 8 0.910 0.735 19 +1
Duke ACC 9 0.907 0.689 65 -1
Creighton Big East 10 0.902 0.724 32 0
Marquette Big East 11 0.900 0.765 9 0
Baylor Big 12 12 0.897 0.782 2 +1
Illinois Big 10 13 0.896 0.726 29 +1
BYU Big 12 14 0.896 0.718 39 -2
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 15 0.890 0.589 101 +2
Alabama SEC 16 0.884 0.770 7 -1
Gonzaga WCC 17 0.881 0.575 105 +1
Michigan St. Big 10 18 0.876 0.757 13 +1
Kansas Big 12 19 0.872 0.786 1 -3
Texas Tech Big 12 20 0.866 0.749 14 +1
New Mexico MWC 21 0.865 0.650 85 +11
Wisconsin Big 10 22 0.864 0.776 4 +12
Texas Big 12 23 0.863 0.742 16 -3
San Diego St. MWC 24 0.862 0.720 36 -1
TCU Big 12 25 0.858 0.701 52 0
St. John’s (NY) Big East 26 0.857 0.730 22 +1
Cincinnati Big 12 27 0.856 0.729 23 -1
Kentucky SEC 28 0.852 0.688 67 -6
Colorado Pac 12 29 0.852 0.688 66 +1
Nebraska Big 10 30 0.847 0.686 70 +3
Pittsburgh ACC 31 0.841 0.665 81 +6
Boise St. MWC 32 0.839 0.696 57 -3
Mississippi St. SEC 33 0.838 0.721 35 +13
Villanova Big East 34 0.837 0.737 18 -10
Wake Forest ACC 35 0.837 0.680 75 -4
Oklahoma Big 12 36 0.833 0.719 37 0
Florida SEC 37 0.832 0.708 47 +2
Clemson ACC 38 0.830 0.716 42 -10
Washington St. Pac 12 39 0.829 0.663 82 +3
Dayton A-10 40 0.828 0.642 86 -5
Nevada MWC 41 0.826 0.626 89 -3
Ohio St. Big 10 42 0.824 0.710 45 +1
Utah Pac 12 43 0.820 0.729 24 +6
Colorado St. MWC 44 0.815 0.697 56 -4
UCF Big 12 45 0.814 0.727 28 0
Fla. Atlantic AAC 46 0.812 0.619 91 -5
Indiana St. MVC 47 0.810 0.516 134 +1
Northwestern Big 10 48 0.805 0.696 58 -1
Texas A&M SEC 49 0.805 0.717 41 +2
Utah St. MWC 50 0.799 0.630 88 -6
Iowa Big 10 51 0.795 0.728 27 -1
Providence Big East 52 0.793 0.718 38 +7
Grand Canyon WAC 53 0.788 0.466 168 +2
Drake MVC 54 0.788 0.543 120 -1
Oregon Pac 12 55 0.786 0.706 49 +11
Kansas St. Big 12 56 0.783 0.760 12 +1
NC State ACC 57 0.782 0.691 59 +17
South Carolina SEC 58 0.776 0.651 84 -6
Xavier Big East 59 0.775 0.769 8 -3
Virginia Tech ACC 60 0.774 0.691 60 -6
Washington Pac 12 61 0.771 0.709 46 -1
Butler Big East 62 0.770 0.729 26 +1
Bradley MVC 63 0.769 0.571 106 +1
Seton Hall Big East 64 0.767 0.716 43 -6
Virginia ACC 65 0.766 0.669 80 0
Maryland Big 10 66 0.756 0.691 63 -4
McNeese Southland 67 0.755 0.335 313 0
James Madison Sunbelt 68 0.754 0.372 284 +4
SMU AAC 69 0.749 0.560 110 -8
San Francisco WCC 70 0.745 0.485 149 -2
UNLV MWC 71 0.742 0.671 77 -2
Boston College ACC 72 0.734 0.670 78 +20
North Texas AAC 73 0.732 0.605 97 +2
VCU A-10 74 0.732 0.611 93 +7
Penn St. Big 10 75 0.730 0.691 62 -2
Southern California Pac 12 76 0.729 0.732 21 +2
Memphis AAC 77 0.728 0.611 94 -6
Minnesota Big 10 78 0.726 0.656 83 -2
Duquesne A-10 79 0.722 0.616 92 +19
Richmond A-10 80 0.720 0.548 116 -1
Princeton Ivy 81 0.718 0.462 173 -11
UC Irvine Big West 82 0.716 0.469 166 -5
Florida St. ACC 83 0.715 0.724 33 -3
Loyola Chicago A-10 84 0.711 0.562 109 -2
South Fla. AAC 85 0.706 0.511 137 -2
App State Sunbelt 86 0.702 0.438 199 +2
Massachusetts A-10 87 0.697 0.526 129 -3
LSU SEC 88 0.693 0.670 79 +1
Miami (FL) ACC 89 0.691 0.679 76 -3
Yale Ivy 90 0.688 0.497 144 +7
George Mason A-10 91 0.687 0.556 112 -1
Syracuse ACC 92 0.687 0.725 31 -5
Georgia SEC 93 0.686 0.699 53 +1
Indiana Big 10 94 0.684 0.744 15 -9
Saint Joseph’s A-10 95 0.683 0.542 121 +7
Ole Miss SEC 96 0.682 0.685 71 0
Samford Southern 97 0.681 0.410 236 -2
St. Bonaventure A-10 98 0.677 0.559 111 -7
UCLA Pac 12 99 0.676 0.687 69 +4
Stanford Pac 12 100 0.666 0.682 72 +1
Rutgers Big 10 101 0.664 0.718 40 -2
Louisiana Tech C-USA 102 0.664 0.469 165 -9
UAB AAC 103 0.659 0.598 98 +6
Oklahoma St. Big 12 104 0.657 0.722 34 -4
Col. of Charleston CAA 105 0.655 0.431 211 -1
Santa Clara WCC 106 0.653 0.545 118 -1
Vermont Am. East 107 0.643 0.412 231 0
Cornell Ivy 108 0.636 0.452 184 0
Arkansas SEC 109 0.634 0.703 50 -3
Seattle U WAC 110 0.619 0.476 157 +11
UT Arlington WAC 111 0.618 0.533 125 +9
UNI MVC 112 0.617 0.579 104 0
Belmont MVC 113 0.611 0.537 124 0
Hofstra CAA 114 0.611 0.458 176 -4
Notre Dame ACC 115 0.609 0.698 55 0
Charlotte AAC 116 0.608 0.571 107 -5
Western Caro. Southern 117 0.604 0.422 224 0
California Pac 12 118 0.602 0.698 54 -2
Davidson A-10 119 0.597 0.596 99 -5
Akron MAC 120 0.595 0.431 212 +5
Georgia Tech ACC 121 0.595 0.715 44 -2
Southern Ill. MVC 122 0.592 0.514 135 0
UC San Diego Big West 123 0.590 0.433 205 0
Michigan Big 10 124 0.584 0.776 5 0
West Virginia Big 12 125 0.582 0.781 3 +7
Tulane AAC 126 0.579 0.581 103 0
UNCW CAA 127 0.577 0.433 208 0
Western Ky. C-USA 128 0.574 0.406 243 +24
South Dakota St. Summit 129 0.573 0.434 203 +7
Drexel CAA 130 0.573 0.417 227 +1
Arizona St. Pac 12 131 0.572 0.732 20 -13
Morehead St. OVC 132 0.571 0.332 320 -3
Troy Sunbelt 133 0.569 0.429 215 +1
Tarleton St. WAC 134 0.567 0.496 145 -6
High Point Big South 135 0.567 0.371 285 -2
Toledo MAC 136 0.560 0.451 185 -6
Oakland Horizon 137 0.558 0.448 188 0
Ohio MAC 138 0.555 0.382 271 +11
Youngstown St. Horizon 139 0.551 0.370 287 +1
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 140 0.549 0.478 154 -5
Wichita St. AAC 141 0.549 0.589 102 +4
Towson CAA 142 0.548 0.457 177 -4
Sam Houston WAC 143 0.545 0.462 174 +3
Colgate Patriot 144 0.543 0.332 319 +6
Missouri SEC 145 0.542 0.680 73 -1
Oregon St. Pac 12 146 0.541 0.707 48 -5
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 147 0.537 0.366 288 -8
Chattanooga Southern 148 0.533 0.409 238 0
Furman Southern 149 0.533 0.463 172 -2
Liberty C-USA 150 0.531 0.464 171 -8
Wyoming MWC 151 0.528 0.635 87 -8
Missouri St. MVC 152 0.524 0.527 128 +2
UNC Greensboro Southern 153 0.519 0.433 207 +2
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 154 0.511 0.333 316 +4
Montana Big Sky 155 0.508 0.409 237 -2
Weber St. Big Sky 156 0.508 0.410 235 -5
UMass Lowell Am. East 157 0.506 0.356 300 +8
Louisiana Sunbelt 158 0.503 0.447 190 +3
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 159 0.502 0.429 217 +4
Hawaii Big West 160 0.502 0.437 200 0
Longwood Big South 161 0.501 0.356 299 -2
Wright St. Horizon 162 0.501 0.411 233 0
Murray St. MVC 163 0.494 0.549 114 +3
Long Beach St. Big West 164 0.491 0.453 181 +27
Kent St. MAC 165 0.489 0.437 201 +22
UC Davis Big West 166 0.488 0.431 213 +1
Utah Valley WAC 167 0.485 0.512 136 -10
Fordham A-10 168 0.476 0.548 115 +12
UTEP C-USA 169 0.473 0.476 159 +7
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 170 0.473 0.343 306 -6
LMU (CA) WCC 171 0.473 0.511 138 -2
UNC Asheville Big South 172 0.472 0.435 202 -2
SFA WAC 173 0.469 0.465 170 -17
Fairfield MAAC 174 0.468 0.333 315 -3
Stony Brook CAA 175 0.468 0.445 193 +9
Temple AAC 176 0.468 0.546 117 +29
Delaware CAA 177 0.466 0.396 254 -3
Lipscomb A-Sun 178 0.463 0.379 276 -5
Georgetown Big East 179 0.463 0.690 64 -11
ETSU Southern 180 0.462 0.441 197 -8
Brown Ivy 181 0.462 0.473 161 +20
Quinnipiac MAAC 182 0.460 0.313 334 +12
Louisville ACC 183 0.458 0.680 74 -2
Saint Louis A-10 184 0.458 0.620 90 -7
Vanderbilt SEC 185 0.456 0.702 51 -3
La Salle A-10 186 0.454 0.522 131 +4
Bryant Am. East 187 0.454 0.422 225 -8
Illinois St. MVC 188 0.452 0.511 139 -10
Winthrop Big South 189 0.449 0.412 230 -3
Little Rock OVC 190 0.446 0.286 350 -5
East Carolina AAC 191 0.446 0.540 122 -16
George Washington A-10 192 0.444 0.501 143 -4
Tulsa AAC 193 0.443 0.471 163 -10
Texas St. Sunbelt 194 0.441 0.505 141 -5
California Baptist WAC 195 0.428 0.449 186 -3
Cleveland St. Horizon 196 0.427 0.383 268 +4
UIC MVC 197 0.426 0.538 123 -1
Saint Peter’s MAAC 198 0.423 0.346 305 +14
Northern Ky. Horizon 199 0.423 0.409 239 -6
Monmouth CAA 200 0.422 0.431 214 -1
Kansas City Summit 201 0.419 0.402 246 -3
Wofford Southern 202 0.416 0.471 164 +2
Lamar University Southland 203 0.415 0.318 328 0
Northern Colo. Big Sky 204 0.413 0.373 281 -9
Rhode Island A-10 205 0.410 0.589 100 +3
Pepperdine WCC 206 0.410 0.520 133 +1
Abilene Christian WAC 207 0.407 0.476 158 -1
Jacksonville St. C-USA 208 0.405 0.425 222 -11
UC Santa Barbara Big West 209 0.404 0.429 216 0
Montana St. Big Sky 210 0.402 0.403 244 +22
Rice AAC 211 0.402 0.565 108 -1
UC Riverside Big West 212 0.401 0.474 160 -10
Penn Ivy 213 0.398 0.524 130 +1
Mercer Southern 214 0.398 0.446 192 -1
Rider MAAC 215 0.393 0.396 256 +1
Gardner-Webb Big South 216 0.392 0.472 162 +1
Fresno St. MWC 217 0.391 0.608 95 +9
Georgia St. Sunbelt 218 0.391 0.445 194 0
Milwaukee Horizon 219 0.390 0.389 265 +4
North Dakota Summit 220 0.390 0.359 295 -5
Stetson A-Sun 221 0.388 0.407 241 -2
Merrimack NEC 222 0.385 0.286 351 -11
Nicholls Southland 223 0.384 0.395 258 +15
Evansville MVC 224 0.383 0.520 132 -3
UT Martin OVC 225 0.382 0.313 333 -3
Marist MAAC 226 0.380 0.296 344 +2
UTSA AAC 227 0.378 0.483 151 -7
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 228 0.376 0.397 253 -4
Austin Peay A-Sun 229 0.374 0.396 255 -2
CSUN Big West 230 0.372 0.393 259 +1
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 231 0.369 0.482 152 -2
CSU Bakersfield Big West 232 0.369 0.448 187 -7
San Jose St. MWC 233 0.367 0.607 96 +2
South Alabama Sunbelt 234 0.366 0.426 219 -4
Harvard Ivy 235 0.364 0.456 179 +2
Bowling Green MAC 236 0.358 0.352 302 0
FGCU A-Sun 237 0.358 0.411 234 -3
UAlbany Am. East 238 0.355 0.373 282 +3
Columbia Ivy 239 0.354 0.412 232 +8
Maine Am. East 240 0.353 0.389 264 +5
Marshall Sunbelt 241 0.352 0.483 150 +2
Iona MAAC 242 0.352 0.353 301 -2
Radford Big South 243 0.350 0.414 229 -1
Green Bay Horizon 244 0.350 0.399 250 +4
Southern Utah WAC 245 0.350 0.481 153 -1
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 246 0.349 0.443 195 0
Northeastern CAA 247 0.345 0.428 218 +2
Air Force MWC 248 0.344 0.555 113 -9
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 249 0.341 0.306 340 -16
New Hampshire Am. East 250 0.340 0.421 226 +10
North Florida A-Sun 251 0.339 0.383 270 -1
North Ala. A-Sun 252 0.339 0.382 272 0
Idaho St. Big Sky 253 0.336 0.380 275 +1
Norfolk St. MEAC 254 0.334 0.291 348 +2
Omaha Summit 255 0.331 0.391 262 0
Portland St. Big Sky 256 0.330 0.383 269 +2
North Dakota St. Summit 257 0.326 0.440 198 +2
Miami (OH) MAC 258 0.325 0.392 261 -1
Lehigh Patriot 259 0.324 0.320 327 -6
Denver Summit 260 0.323 0.399 252 +6
UMBC Am. East 261 0.323 0.356 298 0
The Citadel Southern 262 0.321 0.432 209 +3
San Diego WCC 263 0.321 0.510 140 +1
Ball St. MAC 264 0.321 0.342 307 -1
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 265 0.320 0.447 189 -3
Queens (NC) A-Sun 266 0.313 0.426 221 +1
Oral Roberts Summit 267 0.312 0.457 178 +1
N.C. Central MEAC 268 0.308 0.268 355 -17
Bucknell Patriot 269 0.306 0.332 318 0
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 270 0.306 0.359 294 +1
Presbyterian Big South 271 0.305 0.357 297 -1
Central Conn. St. NEC 272 0.299 0.246 362 +4
FIU C-USA 273 0.294 0.455 180 +2
Utah Tech WAC 274 0.291 0.478 155 +4
Niagara MAAC 275 0.288 0.316 330 -3
Texas Southern SWAC 276 0.288 0.312 335 +3
Central Mich. MAC 277 0.286 0.400 249 -4
Canisius MAAC 278 0.285 0.380 274 +3
Jacksonville A-Sun 279 0.285 0.386 266 +1
Middle Tenn. C-USA 280 0.284 0.504 142 -6
Howard MEAC 281 0.283 0.291 347 +10
Binghamton Am. East 282 0.282 0.378 277 0
Grambling SWAC 283 0.282 0.334 314 +13
Old Dominion Sunbelt 284 0.280 0.477 156 -1
Western Ill. OVC 285 0.280 0.309 337 -1
Portland WCC 286 0.278 0.545 119 -1
Southern U. SWAC 287 0.273 0.339 312 -10
SIUE OVC 288 0.271 0.308 339 +1
USC Upstate Big South 289 0.268 0.426 220 -2
DePaul Big East 290 0.265 0.761 11 +13
American Patriot 291 0.263 0.267 356 +1
ULM Sunbelt 292 0.263 0.458 175 -2
Sacred Heart NEC 293 0.259 0.263 358 0
New Mexico St. C-USA 294 0.258 0.532 126 -8
Tennessee St. OVC 295 0.254 0.303 342 0
Le Moyne NEC 296 0.254 0.258 359 -2
Wagner NEC 297 0.253 0.257 360 +9
NIU MAC 298 0.251 0.465 169 +1
Western Mich. MAC 299 0.250 0.402 245 -11
Robert Morris Horizon 300 0.249 0.395 257 +1
Southeastern La. Southland 301 0.248 0.372 283 -3
Valparaiso MVC 302 0.247 0.532 127 -2
Boston U. Patriot 303 0.247 0.282 352 -1
Chicago St. Independent 304 0.246 0.416 228 0
Delaware St. MEAC 305 0.245 0.291 346 +9
Sacramento St. Big Sky 306 0.235 0.423 223 -1
Alcorn SWAC 307 0.234 0.349 304 -10
Campbell CAA 308 0.228 0.359 296 0
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 309 0.228 0.443 196 +1
William & Mary CAA 310 0.224 0.361 292 +1
Jackson St. SWAC 311 0.222 0.311 336 -4
Bellarmine A-Sun 312 0.220 0.446 191 0
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 313 0.216 0.272 353 +5
South Dakota Summit 314 0.216 0.377 279 -1
South Carolina St. MEAC 315 0.214 0.330 322 -6
Elon CAA 316 0.214 0.364 291 -1
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 317 0.213 0.407 242 -1
Eastern Ill. OVC 318 0.209 0.330 321 -1
Idaho Big Sky 319 0.208 0.392 260 0
Navy Patriot 320 0.203 0.252 361 +1
Lafayette Patriot 321 0.202 0.340 311 +2
Northwestern St. Southland 322 0.201 0.366 289 -2
Alabama St. SWAC 323 0.199 0.318 329 -1
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.195 0.469 167 0
Eastern Mich. MAC 325 0.185 0.366 290 +1
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 326 0.173 0.400 248 -1
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 327 0.173 0.267 357 0
Alabama A&M SWAC 328 0.171 0.304 341 +5
UTRGV WAC 329 0.169 0.494 147 -1
Southern Ind. OVC 330 0.169 0.351 303 -1
Cal Poly Big West 331 0.166 0.453 182 -1
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 332 0.162 0.300 343 -1
NJIT Am. East 333 0.161 0.400 247 +1
Dartmouth Ivy 334 0.158 0.487 148 +1
New Orleans Southland 335 0.156 0.377 280 -3
Central Ark. A-Sun 336 0.153 0.359 293 +1
UIW Southland 337 0.148 0.324 325 +1
Morgan St. MEAC 338 0.148 0.342 309 -2
Manhattan MAAC 339 0.147 0.384 267 +3
Hampton CAA 340 0.145 0.371 286 -1
Tennessee Tech OVC 341 0.144 0.342 310 -1
Prairie View SWAC 342 0.143 0.322 326 +1
Buffalo MAC 343 0.143 0.433 206 -2
Florida A&M SWAC 344 0.136 0.390 263 0
Detroit Mercy Horizon 345 0.133 0.434 204 0
N.C. A&T Big South 346 0.131 0.408 240 0
Army West Point Patriot 347 0.130 0.272 354 0
Holy Cross Patriot 348 0.126 0.290 349 +1
LIU NEC 349 0.125 0.308 338 -1
Loyola Maryland Patriot 350 0.122 0.315 331 0
Houston Christian Southland 351 0.116 0.432 210 0
Pacific WCC 352 0.116 0.496 146 0
UMES MEAC 353 0.109 0.327 323 +1
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 354 0.105 0.332 317 -1
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 355 0.096 0.295 345 0
Lindenwood OVC 356 0.096 0.315 332 0
Siena MAAC 357 0.089 0.378 278 +1
Stonehill NEC 358 0.087 0.342 308 -1
VMI Southern 359 0.084 0.453 183 0
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.077 0.381 273 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.060 0.325 324 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.043 0.399 251 0