| Team | Expected WP% vs Avg Opponent | Seed | Region | Round of 32% | Sweet 16% | Elite 8% | Final Four% | Champ Game% | Winner% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 0.946 | 1 | Midwest | 94.6% | 67.2% | 53.0% | 36.4% | 25.1% | 17.6% |
| Alabama | 0.938 | 1 | South | 95.9% | 72.6% | 55.3% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 14.6% |
| UCLA* | 0.928 | 2 | West | 92.7% | 65.3% | 42.9% | 26.9% | 14.9% | 8.5% |
| Texas | 0.912 | 2 | Midwest | 88.2% | 57.2% | 37.4% | 20.3% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
| Tennessee* | 0.918 | 4 | East | 86.1% | 59.5% | 34.1% | 22.8% | 12.7% | 6.5% |
| Purdue | 0.907 | 1 | East | 97.3% | 61.4% | 34.7% | 22.1% | 11.5% | 5.5% |
| UConn | 0.911 | 4 | West | 79.3% | 53.7% | 30.3% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Arizona | 0.900 | 2 | South | 85.9% | 54.3% | 31.7% | 15.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% |
| Kansas | 0.902 | 1 | West | 93.2% | 56.1% | 30.2% | 15.2% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Gonzaga | 0.902 | 3 | West | 83.3% | 51.4% | 25.6% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| Baylor | 0.875 | 3 | South | 80.7% | 43.7% | 22.7% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Marquette | 0.870 | 2 | East | 82.2% | 46.8% | 26.5% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Creighton | 0.876 | 6 | South | 68.1% | 39.3% | 20.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | 0.894 | 5 | West | 68.0% | 29.8% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Kansas St. | 0.857 | 3 | East | 78.8% | 42.0% | 21.7% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Iowa St. | 0.860 | 6 | Midwest | 67.1% | 38.1% | 18.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| San Diego St. | 0.866 | 5 | South | 66.8% | 41.9% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Xavier | 0.851 | 3 | Midwest | 81.5% | 44.6% | 19.7% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Texas A&M | 0.851 | 7 | Midwest | 57.8% | 25.1% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| TCU** | 0.864 | 6 | West | 63.9% | 31.5% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Indiana | 0.848 | 4 | Midwest | 65.1% | 40.6% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kentucky | 0.842 | 6 | East | 59.7% | 33.8% | 16.8% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Utah St. | 0.849 | 10 | South | 62.1% | 29.1% | 13.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Arkansas | 0.862 | 8 | West | 53.2% | 23.7% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Auburn | 0.843 | 9 | Midwest | 61.5% | 22.0% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Fla. Atlantic | 0.858 | 9 | East | 51.0% | 19.8% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Duke | 0.843 | 5 | East | 61.8% | 25.1% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Michigan St. | 0.835 | 7 | East | 56.2% | 29.0% | 14.6% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| West Virginia | 0.856 | 9 | South | 51.6% | 14.2% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Memphis | 0.849 | 8 | East | 49.0% | 18.6% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Maryland | 0.850 | 8 | South | 48.4% | 12.7% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Virginia | 0.820 | 4 | South | 69.2% | 33.5% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Illinois | 0.842 | 9 | West | 46.8% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Southern California | 0.822 | 10 | East | 43.8% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Boise St. | 0.830 | 10 | West | 51.9% | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Northwestern | 0.829 | 7 | West | 48.1% | 15.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Providence | 0.793 | 11 | East | 40.3% | 19.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Iowa | 0.821 | 8 | Midwest | 38.5% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Penn St. | 0.807 | 10 | Midwest | 42.2% | 15.2% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Miami (FL) | 0.776 | 5 | Midwest | 51.6% | 22.5% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Missouri | 0.782 | 7 | South | 37.9% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Drake | 0.763 | 12 | Midwest | 48.4% | 20.4% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| NC State | 0.775 | 11 | South | 31.9% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oral Roberts | 0.774 | 12 | East | 38.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Arizona St. | 0.782 | 11 | West | 36.1% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| VCU | 0.784 | 12 | West | 32.0% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Col. of Charleston | 0.742 | 12 | South | 33.2% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kent St. | 0.741 | 13 | Midwest | 34.9% | 16.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | 0.735 | 11 | Midwest | 32.9% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Iona | 0.738 | 13 | West | 20.7% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Furman | 0.663 | 13 | South | 30.8% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | 0.647 | 13 | East | 13.9% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Canyon | 0.644 | 14 | West | 16.7% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana St. | 0.621 | 14 | East | 21.2% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Santa Barbara | 0.627 | 14 | South | 19.3% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | 0.603 | 15 | East | 17.8% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 0.604 | 15 | South | 14.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw St. | 0.562 | 14 | Midwest | 18.5% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | 0.584 | 15 | Midwest | 11.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Asheville | 0.522 | 15 | West | 7.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Ky. | 0.494 | 16 | Midwest | 5.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| A&M-Corpus Christi | 0.466 | 16 | South | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | 0.434 | 16 | West | 6.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 0.237 | 16 | East | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Notes: UCLA and Tennessee were downgraded slightly due to season-ending injuries suffered by Jaylen Clark and Zakai Zeigler, while TCU was upgraded slightly due to the recent return of leading scorer Mike Miles Jr.