Despite being ranked #2 and #4 in the AP Preseason poll, for most of the season Gonzaga and Kentucky have struggled mightily to match that preseason hype. That changed in a big way this week, however. Gonzaga surged 5 spots to #13 overall after a dominating road win at LMU, while Kentucky improved 13 spots to #32 after a road win versus Mississippi State and a dominating home win against Tennessee.

On the other side of the ledger, Rutgers has dropped out of the top 10 after losing at home to Nebraska. They have clearly been affected by Mawot Mag’s absence due to a season-ending knee injury, as they are 1-3 since his injury compared to 16-7 beforehand. Virginia also had a rough week according to my model. Despite winning both games they played this week, the games were much closer than expected against lowly ranked Louisville and Notre Dame.

At the top of the rankings, little has changed. Houston clearly remains the top overall team, followed by Alabama, Tennessee, and UCLA who are all closely vying for the number 2 spot in the rankings. After that there is considerable separation, as the gap between #4 ranked UCLA and #5 ranked UConn is actually larger than the gap between #5 ranked UConn and #10 ranked Texas.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Change from Last Week Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank
Houston AAC 1 0.954 0 0.614 90
Alabama SEC 2 0.942 +2 0.749 8
Tennessee SEC 3 0.938 -1 0.696 34
UCLA Pac 12 4 0.937 -1 0.692 42
UConn Big East 5 0.913 0 0.673 54
Purdue Big 10 6 0.912 +1 0.692 41
Kansas Big 12 7 0.908 +2 0.786 1
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 8 0.906 -2 0.668 59
Arizona Pac 12 9 0.898 +2 0.693 38
Texas Big 12 10 0.894 -2 0.742 9
Baylor Big 12 11 0.888 +1 0.761 4
Creighton Big East 12 0.885 +1 0.731 11
Gonzaga WCC 13 0.883 +5 0.701 30
Iowa St. Big 12 14 0.875 +1 0.730 12
Rutgers Big 10 15 0.875 -5 0.674 53
Arkansas SEC 16 0.872 +5 0.711 22
Marquette Big East 17 0.870 -1 0.681 50
Indiana Big 10 18 0.867 -1 0.704 26
Illinois Big 10 19 0.865 -5 0.672 56
TCU Big 12 20 0.863 +3 0.691 44
Kansas St. Big 12 21 0.860 -1 0.725 15
Auburn SEC 22 0.859 +6 0.701 29
San Diego St. MWC 23 0.858 -1 0.713 20
Maryland Big 10 24 0.854 +3 0.696 36
Boise St. MWC 25 0.847 +1 0.636 77
Virginia ACC 26 0.846 -7 0.636 76
West Virginia Big 12 27 0.846 -3 0.755 6
Xavier Big East 28 0.841 +1 0.714 19
Northwestern Big 10 29 0.836 +3 0.699 32
Texas A&M SEC 30 0.831 +8 0.642 73
Oklahoma St. Big 12 31 0.830 -6 0.752 7
Kentucky SEC 32 0.828 +13 0.696 35
Michigan St. Big 10 33 0.825 -3 0.770 3
Iowa Big 10 34 0.825 -3 0.709 24
Mississippi St. SEC 35 0.824 -2 0.667 61
Duke ACC 36 0.821 +1 0.657 62
Utah St. MWC 37 0.818 +5 0.673 55
Providence Big East 38 0.817 +5 0.612 91
Fla. Atlantic C-USA 39 0.817 -3 0.546 118
Oregon Pac 12 40 0.812 0 0.756 5
Nevada MWC 41 0.811 0 0.693 40
Texas Tech Big 12 42 0.807 +9 0.704 27
NC State ACC 43 0.806 +1 0.596 97
Memphis AAC 44 0.805 +4 0.654 66
Utah Pac 12 45 0.804 -10 0.637 75
North Carolina ACC 46 0.802 -7 0.699 31
Southern California Pac 12 47 0.800 +8 0.683 48
Ohio St. Big 10 48 0.799 -14 0.719 17
Colorado Pac 12 49 0.798 +4 0.690 45
Miami (FL) ACC 50 0.797 +2 0.607 95
New Mexico MWC 51 0.796 -2 0.634 78
Florida SEC 52 0.793 -5 0.712 21
North Texas C-USA 53 0.785 +3 0.557 114
Michigan Big 10 54 0.784 +6 0.706 25
Liberty A-Sun 55 0.784 -5 0.463 193
UCF AAC 56 0.782 -2 0.644 71
Penn St. Big 10 57 0.780 +4 0.685 46
Oklahoma Big 12 58 0.778 +10 0.781 2
Washington St. Pac 12 59 0.778 +4 0.728 14
Oral Roberts Summit 60 0.775 -14 0.448 209
Seton Hall Big East 61 0.772 -3 0.698 33
Sam Houston WAC 62 0.769 -3 0.530 130
Cincinnati AAC 63 0.769 -1 0.609 92
Kent St. MAC 64 0.768 +8 0.470 187
Arizona St. Pac 12 65 0.766 -1 0.670 57
Pittsburgh ACC 66 0.758 0 0.583 100
Missouri SEC 67 0.757 -10 0.674 52
Wisconsin Big 10 68 0.757 +2 0.728 13
UAB C-USA 69 0.754 -2 0.530 127
Bradley MVC 70 0.754 -1 0.479 177
Dayton A-10 71 0.754 +2 0.517 137
Yale Ivy 72 0.752 -1 0.431 232
Virginia Tech ACC 73 0.745 -8 0.617 88
Col. of Charleston CAA 74 0.737 +6 0.390 283
Iona MAAC 75 0.731 0 0.430 234
Villanova Big East 76 0.727 0 0.684 47
VCU A-10 77 0.724 +4 0.530 131
Utah Valley WAC 78 0.722 +5 0.547 117
Marshall Sunbelt 79 0.722 -5 0.430 235
BYU WCC 80 0.720 -2 0.649 68
Drake MVC 81 0.720 +3 0.464 192
UNLV MWC 82 0.718 -5 0.638 74
Santa Clara WCC 83 0.716 +8 0.653 67
Wake Forest ACC 84 0.716 -5 0.623 86
Clemson ACC 85 0.711 0 0.543 121
Vanderbilt SEC 86 0.708 +1 0.718 18
Tulane AAC 87 0.704 +1 0.536 124
UC Irvine Big West 88 0.696 +2 0.504 142
Stanford Pac 12 89 0.695 0 0.677 51
James Madison Sunbelt 90 0.695 -4 0.440 218
Nebraska Big 10 91 0.681 +9 0.741 10
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 92 0.679 -10 0.456 200
Indiana St. MVC 93 0.677 +2 0.392 281
St. John’s (NY) Big East 94 0.672 0 0.633 79
Akron MAC 95 0.669 +10 0.472 184
Washington Pac 12 96 0.664 +2 0.710 23
Furman Southern 97 0.658 -5 0.408 260
San Francisco WCC 98 0.657 +3 0.577 103
Hofstra CAA 99 0.651 +3 0.431 233
Syracuse ACC 100 0.647 -4 0.579 101
Colorado St. MWC 101 0.647 +3 0.654 65
Southern Utah WAC 102 0.641 +5 0.574 104
Charlotte C-USA 103 0.639 +5 0.498 149
Saint Louis A-10 104 0.638 +7 0.573 105
LMU (CA) WCC 105 0.635 -12 0.630 83
San Jose St. MWC 106 0.633 -3 0.624 85
Duquesne A-10 107 0.632 +5 0.507 140
Ole Miss SEC 108 0.629 -2 0.693 39
Louisiana Sunbelt 109 0.628 +5 0.487 159
Butler Big East 110 0.628 -13 0.702 28
Toledo MAC 111 0.627 -1 0.422 245
Wichita St. AAC 112 0.626 +4 0.571 106
UC Santa Barbara Big West 113 0.622 -14 0.424 243
Grand Canyon WAC 114 0.618 -5 0.545 119
Middle Tenn. C-USA 115 0.615 +5 0.558 112
Montana St. Big Sky 116 0.615 -1 0.483 168
Temple AAC 117 0.614 -4 0.620 87
South Alabama Sunbelt 118 0.613 +18 0.480 175
Youngstown St. Horizon 119 0.610 +5 0.339 333
UNC Greensboro Southern 120 0.604 -2 0.450 207
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 121 0.589 +10 0.453 202
Princeton Ivy 122 0.588 -5 0.408 259
Hawaii Big West 123 0.584 +6 0.448 210
Belmont MVC 124 0.581 +6 0.455 201
SFA WAC 125 0.581 -6 0.501 144
Colgate Patriot 126 0.581 -3 0.331 340
Southern Ill. MVC 127 0.579 0 0.465 191
Samford Southern 128 0.579 +14 0.386 291
Troy Sunbelt 129 0.573 -3 0.493 150
Georgia SEC 130 0.573 -9 0.615 89
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 131 0.568 +2 0.499 145
Louisiana Tech C-USA 132 0.564 -4 0.560 111
Vermont Am. East 133 0.564 +1 0.443 216
Ohio MAC 134 0.563 +15 0.456 199
Cornell Ivy 135 0.562 -13 0.419 250
LSU SEC 136 0.562 -4 0.682 49
Seattle U WAC 137 0.558 -12 0.534 125
Air Force MWC 138 0.549 +2 0.557 113
South Fla. AAC 139 0.540 +7 0.554 115
Long Beach St. Big West 140 0.538 -5 0.524 132
Fordham A-10 141 0.537 -2 0.428 239
UC Davis Big West 142 0.536 +5 0.461 196
California Baptist WAC 143 0.535 +21 0.477 180
UC Riverside Big West 144 0.535 +16 0.513 139
Penn Ivy 145 0.534 +11 0.463 194
Davidson A-10 146 0.533 -9 0.543 122
George Mason A-10 147 0.533 +5 0.490 154
Wyoming MWC 148 0.533 +15 0.654 64
Fresno St. MWC 149 0.529 +6 0.656 63
DePaul Big East 150 0.528 -2 0.691 43
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 151 0.527 -6 0.453 203
Portland WCC 152 0.525 -11 0.625 84
UMass Lowell Am. East 153 0.525 +4 0.273 356
Ball St. MAC 154 0.524 -16 0.405 265
Pepperdine WCC 155 0.523 -1 0.643 72
Longwood Big South 156 0.521 -5 0.337 335
Missouri St. MVC 157 0.520 -14 0.505 141
Harvard Ivy 158 0.520 +22 0.461 197
Richmond A-10 159 0.518 -9 0.482 170
Montana Big Sky 160 0.517 +2 0.493 151
Rice C-USA 161 0.517 -17 0.530 128
Old Dominion Sunbelt 162 0.516 +5 0.488 157
Towson CAA 163 0.516 -5 0.351 324
Western Ky. C-USA 164 0.511 +1 0.516 138
Norfolk St. MEAC 165 0.505 +33 0.376 302
Quinnipiac MAAC 166 0.504 -7 0.377 301
UNC Asheville Big South 167 0.503 +10 0.396 277
New Mexico St. WAC 168 0.500 -2 0.605 96
South Dakota St. Summit 169 0.499 +16 0.486 161
Utah Tech WAC 170 0.498 -2 0.563 110
Radford Big South 171 0.496 -18 0.404 267
Stetson A-Sun 172 0.495 +2 0.462 195
Tarleton St. WAC 173 0.494 +2 0.578 102
Notre Dame ACC 174 0.492 +18 0.586 99
SMU AAC 175 0.489 +16 0.633 81
N.C. Central MEAC 176 0.486 +12 0.399 273
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 177 0.485 +28 0.322 345
UTEP C-USA 178 0.485 -9 0.569 108
Pacific WCC 179 0.484 0 0.539 123
UNCW CAA 180 0.483 -9 0.404 266
Massachusetts A-10 181 0.479 +16 0.493 152
Cleveland St. Horizon 182 0.478 +11 0.384 293
FGCU A-Sun 183 0.478 -11 0.449 208
Siena MAAC 184 0.473 -11 0.367 311
Georgia Tech ACC 185 0.473 +14 0.632 82
Gardner-Webb Big South 186 0.472 -25 0.403 268
Georgetown Big East 187 0.472 +14 0.668 60
San Diego WCC 188 0.471 +12 0.586 98
St. Bonaventure A-10 189 0.470 -19 0.491 153
Saint Joseph’s A-10 190 0.466 0 0.469 189
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 191 0.464 +4 0.387 287
Wright St. Horizon 192 0.463 -6 0.358 318
Abilene Christian WAC 193 0.461 +9 0.530 129
Chattanooga Southern 194 0.459 -12 0.427 240
Lipscomb A-Sun 195 0.458 -12 0.402 270
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 196 0.457 -12 0.481 173
Bryant Am. East 197 0.456 -21 0.396 276
App State Sunbelt 198 0.455 -9 0.499 147
Boston College ACC 199 0.453 +7 0.607 94
Northern Ky. Horizon 200 0.450 +11 0.411 257
Navy Patriot 201 0.449 +6 0.332 339
Brown Ivy 202 0.448 -24 0.432 231
Detroit Mercy Horizon 203 0.447 +6 0.400 272
Buffalo MAC 204 0.447 -23 0.564 109
Rider MAAC 205 0.444 -9 0.375 306
Grambling SWAC 206 0.444 +2 0.342 332
Oregon St. Pac 12 207 0.440 -3 0.670 58
Northwestern St. Southland 208 0.440 -21 0.357 319
UNI MVC 209 0.437 +1 0.482 169
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 210 0.436 +4 0.476 182
Weber St. Big Sky 211 0.434 +7 0.489 156
Drexel CAA 212 0.431 -9 0.369 309
Florida St. ACC 213 0.425 -19 0.648 69
FIU C-USA 214 0.425 -2 0.544 120
East Carolina AAC 215 0.424 -2 0.481 172
North Dakota St. Summit 216 0.419 +5 0.473 183
Texas St. Sunbelt 217 0.418 -2 0.481 174
Queens (NC) A-Sun 218 0.413 +1 0.365 313
Northern Colo. Big Sky 219 0.412 -2 0.522 134
George Washington A-10 220 0.408 -4 0.477 181
La Salle A-10 221 0.401 +3 0.482 171
Minnesota Big 10 222 0.392 +5 0.695 37
Murray St. MVC 223 0.391 +7 0.484 163
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 224 0.388 +10 0.533 126
Wofford Southern 225 0.388 +1 0.436 226
Portland St. Big Sky 226 0.386 -1 0.499 146
Sacramento St. Big Sky 227 0.384 +2 0.484 165
South Carolina SEC 228 0.383 +7 0.633 80
Nicholls Southland 229 0.373 +2 0.437 225
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 230 0.372 -2 0.395 278
Rhode Island A-10 231 0.371 -8 0.522 133
UT Arlington WAC 232 0.367 +18 0.571 107
SIUE OVC 233 0.366 -11 0.327 341
Howard MEAC 234 0.366 +6 0.388 285
Campbell Big South 235 0.364 +10 0.389 284
Milwaukee Horizon 236 0.362 -16 0.393 279
Winthrop Big South 237 0.362 +11 0.438 223
Jacksonville A-Sun 238 0.361 +1 0.452 204
NIU MAC 239 0.357 -2 0.450 206
Delaware CAA 240 0.356 -4 0.421 248
North Ala. A-Sun 241 0.355 +23 0.398 275
Southern U. SWAC 242 0.355 -9 0.387 289
UTRGV WAC 243 0.353 +11 0.518 136
ETSU Southern 244 0.353 +2 0.398 274
Robert Morris Horizon 245 0.351 +10 0.372 307
UMBC Am. East 246 0.349 -14 0.324 344
Idaho St. Big Sky 247 0.348 -9 0.445 211
North Florida A-Sun 248 0.346 +5 0.469 188
Mercer Southern 249 0.343 -6 0.407 262
UMES MEAC 250 0.342 -3 0.415 254
Western Caro. Southern 251 0.340 0 0.402 269
Army West Point Patriot 252 0.333 +7 0.303 351
Fairfield MAAC 253 0.333 -4 0.387 290
Loyola Chicago A-10 254 0.333 +6 0.504 143
UT Martin OVC 255 0.331 +13 0.313 349
Georgia St. Sunbelt 256 0.325 -4 0.488 158
Niagara MAAC 257 0.325 -13 0.384 294
Alcorn SWAC 258 0.325 +12 0.379 298
California Pac 12 259 0.324 -18 0.720 16
Prairie View SWAC 260 0.323 +11 0.379 297
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 261 0.323 +6 0.350 326
Southern Ind. OVC 262 0.319 +3 0.320 347
Illinois St. MVC 263 0.318 -2 0.438 222
Bowling Green MAC 264 0.316 -2 0.417 251
Southeastern La. Southland 265 0.314 +11 0.383 295
North Dakota Summit 266 0.311 +21 0.443 215
USC Upstate Big South 267 0.311 +2 0.411 256
American Patriot 268 0.311 -26 0.294 352
Idaho Big Sky 269 0.310 -12 0.412 255
Morehead St. OVC 270 0.308 +7 0.367 310
Bellarmine A-Sun 271 0.308 -15 0.483 166
Western Ill. Summit 272 0.306 0 0.401 271
Jacksonville St. A-Sun 273 0.305 0 0.479 176
Kansas City Summit 274 0.302 -16 0.445 213
Lafayette Patriot 275 0.301 -9 0.376 303
UC San Diego Big West 276 0.299 +5 0.484 164
Canisius MAAC 277 0.298 +6 0.439 221
Maine Am. East 278 0.295 -3 0.377 299
Chicago St. Independent 279 0.294 +3 0.386 292
Valparaiso MVC 280 0.293 +4 0.444 214
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 281 0.291 +4 0.471 185
Oakland Horizon 282 0.289 -19 0.429 237
Dartmouth Ivy 283 0.289 -5 0.438 224
Tennessee St. OVC 284 0.288 +4 0.284 355
Louisville ACC 285 0.286 +18 0.647 70
Denver Summit 286 0.284 +6 0.370 308
Boston U. Patriot 287 0.281 +2 0.326 342
CSU Bakersfield Big West 288 0.278 +8 0.471 186
ULM Sunbelt 289 0.278 -15 0.520 135
UTSA C-USA 290 0.272 +18 0.549 116
UIC MVC 291 0.270 -1 0.439 220
New Hampshire Am. East 292 0.269 -6 0.343 331
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 293 0.268 +2 0.376 304
Charleston So. Big South 294 0.266 -14 0.415 253
Western Mich. MAC 295 0.264 +7 0.485 162
Lehigh Patriot 296 0.263 -3 0.350 327
Miami (OH) MAC 297 0.263 +3 0.465 190
Tulsa AAC 298 0.262 -19 0.608 93
High Point Big South 299 0.256 +8 0.387 288
Northeastern CAA 300 0.254 +1 0.381 296
Manhattan MAAC 301 0.252 +8 0.375 305
Eastern Mich. MAC 302 0.252 -8 0.490 155
Tennessee Tech OVC 303 0.252 -5 0.366 312
Bucknell Patriot 304 0.251 +1 0.320 348
Texas Southern SWAC 305 0.250 +15 0.433 230
N.C. A&T Big South 306 0.248 -9 0.433 228
Morgan St. MEAC 307 0.247 -16 0.388 286
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 308 0.246 -9 0.325 343
Alabama A&M SWAC 309 0.246 +19 0.346 330
Jackson St. SWAC 310 0.243 +5 0.406 263
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 311 0.243 +2 0.433 229
Central Mich. MAC 312 0.241 -2 0.445 212
Omaha Summit 313 0.240 -9 0.498 148
Binghamton Am. East 314 0.238 +2 0.346 329
Cal Poly Big West 315 0.233 -9 0.487 160
The Citadel Southern 316 0.229 +6 0.420 249
CSUN Big West 317 0.228 -3 0.477 179
South Dakota Summit 318 0.225 -7 0.434 227
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 319 0.224 -2 0.407 261
Marist MAAC 320 0.218 -1 0.334 338
Austin Peay A-Sun 321 0.217 +4 0.456 198
William & Mary CAA 322 0.217 -4 0.421 246
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 323 0.215 +6 0.220 362
Central Ark. A-Sun 324 0.213 +2 0.439 219
Little Rock OVC 325 0.212 +2 0.337 334
Elon CAA 326 0.211 -2 0.408 258
NJIT Am. East 327 0.209 -6 0.357 321
Wagner NEC 328 0.208 -16 0.222 361
Saint Peter’s MAAC 329 0.207 -6 0.359 317
Stonehill NEC 330 0.195 +3 0.270 357
Sacred Heart NEC 331 0.193 -1 0.223 360
McNeese Southland 332 0.189 -1 0.426 241
Central Conn. St. NEC 333 0.188 +1 0.256 358
Merrimack NEC 334 0.187 +8 0.294 353
Eastern Ill. OVC 335 0.183 0 0.346 328
South Carolina St. MEAC 336 0.182 +3 0.429 236
Stony Brook CAA 337 0.181 +4 0.377 300
Coppin St. MEAC 338 0.181 -6 0.451 205
Holy Cross Patriot 339 0.180 -2 0.351 323
Presbyterian Big South 340 0.179 -4 0.392 282
Loyola Maryland Patriot 341 0.179 -3 0.351 325
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 342 0.177 +1 0.256 359
UIW Southland 343 0.171 +3 0.305 350
Lindenwood OVC 344 0.169 -4 0.359 316
Hampton CAA 345 0.166 +2 0.415 252
UAlbany Am. East 346 0.164 +5 0.392 280
Houston Christian Southland 347 0.161 +2 0.357 322
Alabama St. SWAC 348 0.156 -4 0.357 320
New Orleans Southland 349 0.156 +6 0.362 314
Evansville MVC 350 0.155 -5 0.483 167
Columbia Ivy 351 0.154 -1 0.441 217
VMI Southern 352 0.137 -4 0.428 238
Lamar University Southland 353 0.136 +1 0.337 336
Delaware St. MEAC 354 0.132 -1 0.426 242
Monmouth CAA 355 0.123 +1 0.479 178
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 356 0.123 -4 0.336 337
Mississippi Val. SWAC 357 0.114 +1 0.422 244
St. Francis Brooklyn NEC 358 0.110 -1 0.207 363
Florida A&M SWAC 359 0.105 0 0.405 264
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.094 0 0.360 315
Green Bay Horizon 361 0.078 0 0.421 247
LIU NEC 362 0.054 0 0.321 346
Hartford Independent 363 0.052 0 0.292 354