Party | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|
Senate Majority Probability | 24% | 76% |
Average Outcome | 48.2 | 51.8 |
Median Outcome | 48 | 52 |
Most Common Outcome | 48 | 52 |
Democratic 95th Percentile Outcome | 52 | 48 |
Democratic 75th Percentile Outome | 50 | 50 |
Repulican 75th Percentile Outcome | 47 | 53 |
Republican 95th Percentile Outcome | 46 | 54 |
Republicans enter election day with a 76% chance of retaking the Senate. Republicans are buoyed by the fact that most of the competitive seats are in Republican leaning states. In fact, if Republicans merely win every state that was Republican leaning in 2020 – ie, states where Biden did worse than he did nationally – Republicans would win 53 seats, holding Pennsylvania and picking up Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Democrats are helped by the fact that Republican candidates are polling worse in many of these states than the fundamentals would suggest. Indeed, Democrats are over-performing their fundamentals in the polls by at least 3 points in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Still, it’s unclear whether this is due to poor candidate quality among Republicans or bad polling at the state level. As a result, my model takes a 50/50 average of the polling and fundamentals.
Overall, if Republicans win in every state they are favored in, they will win 53 seats. However, winning 53 seats would require Republicans winning all four of the “Lean Republican” or “Tilt Republican” states, and my model thinks a Republican sweep of all four of these states is unlikely. This is why my model estimates Republicans winning 51.8 seats on average despite being favored in enough states to win 53 seats.
Competitive States
State | Projection | Dem Win% | Rep Win% | Projected Result | Polling Average | Fundamentals | Tipping Point Likelihood |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado | Likely Democratic | 93% | 7% | Dem +8.5 | Dem +8.4 | Dem +8.5 | 1.1% |
Washington | Likely Democratic | 90% | 10% | Dem +7.5 | Dem +4.7 | Dem +10.2 | 1.6% |
New Hampshire | Lean Democratic | 65% | 35% | Dem +2.3 | Dem +2.2 | Dem +2.4 | 8.5% |
Arizona | Lean Republican | 39% | 61% | Rep +1.6 | Dem +1.5 | Rep +4.6 | 14.3% |
Nevada | Lean Republican | 37% | 63% | Rep +2 | Rep +1.4 | Rep +2.6 | 14.7% |
Georgia | Lean Republican | 31% | 69% | Rep +2.9 | Rep +1 | Rep +4.7 | 15.2% |
Pennsylvania | Lean Republican | 31% | 69% | Rep +3 | Rep +0.2 | Rep +5.8 | 14.0% |
Wisconsin | Likely Republican | 16% | 84% | Rep +5.8 | Rep +3.3 | Rep +8.3 | 11.4% |
North Carolina | Likely Republican | 14% | 86% | Rep +6.3 | Rep +4.3 | Rep +8.3 | 10.7% |
Ohio | Solid Republican | 4% | 96% | Rep +10.5 | Rep +6.1 | Rep +15 | 3.9% |
Florida | Solid Republican | 4% | 96% | Rep +10.6 | Rep +8.8 | Rep +12.3 | 3.6% |
All States
State | Projection | Dem Win% | Rep Win% | Projected Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +19 |
Alabama | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +32.4 |
Arkansas | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +36.6 |
Arizona | Lean Republican | 39% | 61% | Rep +1.6 |
California | Solid Democratic | 100% | 0% | Dem +24.2 |
Colorado | Likely Democratic | 93% | 7% | Dem +8.5 |
Connecticut | Solid Democratic | 99% | 1% | Dem +14.4 |
Florida | Solid Republican | 4% | 96% | Rep +10.6 |
Georgia | Lean Republican | 31% | 69% | Rep +2.9 |
Hawaii | Solid Democratic | 100% | 0% | Dem +24.5 |
Iowa | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +17.2 |
Idaho | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +39.8 |
Illinois | Solid Democratic | 99% | 1% | Dem +13.7 |
Indiana | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +17.3 |
Kansas | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +23.6 |
Kentucky | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +34.9 |
Louisiana | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +27.6 |
Maryland | Solid Democratic | 100% | 0% | Dem +28.3 |
Missouri | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +17.8 |
North Carolina | Likely Republican | 14% | 86% | Rep +6.3 |
North Dakota | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +42.3 |
New Hampshire | Lean Democratic | 65% | 35% | Dem +2.3 |
Nevada | Lean Republican | 37% | 63% | Rep +2 |
New York | Solid Democratic | 100% | 0% | Dem +17.9 |
Ohio | Solid Republican | 4% | 96% | Rep +10.5 |
Oklahoma | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +42 |
Oklahoma Special | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +40 |
Oregon | Solid Democratic | 99% | 1% | Dem +13 |
Pennsylvania | Lean Republican | 31% | 69% | Rep +3 |
South Carolina | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +20.6 |
South Dakota | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +35.1 |
Utah | Solid Republican | 0% | 100% | Rep +29.4 |
Vermont | Solid Democratic | 100% | 0% | Dem +28.5 |
Washington | Likely Democratic | 90% | 10% | Dem +7.5 |
Wisconsin | Likely Republican | 16% | 84% | Rep +5.8 |