Joe Biden enters election day as a heavy favorite to win the election, winning the election 94% of the time with an average of 336 electoral votes in my latest Presidential Election Forecast. While Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College gives him an outside shot at victory, Biden’s lead in the national popular vote – projected at 8.4 points – will most likely be too large for Trump to overcome.
In order to win re-election, Trump needs a significantly larger polling error than in 2016. Indeed, if the polls underestimate Trump’s support by a similar amount as they did in 2016 – around 2 points – it would almost certainly not be enough to win the electoral college. Historically, the polling error required for Trump to win is extraordinarily rare, which is why my model gives him just a 6% chance of victory.
| Candidate | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Chance of Winning Election | 94% | 6% |
| Average Electoral Votes | 336 | 202 |
| Biden 95th Percentile Outcome | 402 | 136 |
| Biden 75th Percentile Outcome | 364 | 174 |
| Trump 75th Percentile Outcome | 309 | 229 |
| Trump 95th Percentile Outcome | 266 | 272 |
| National Popular Vote | 53.2% | 44.8% |
| Chance of Winning Popular Vote | 99.6% | 0.4% |
2020 Presidential Election Forecast
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| State | Rating | Projected Margin | Biden Chance of Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | Likely Democratic | Biden +10.6 | 93% |
| New Hampshire | Likely Democratic | Biden +11.3 | 92% |
| Wisconsin | Likely Democratic | Biden +9.4 | 90% |
| Michigan | Likely Democratic | Biden +7.5 | 87% |
| Nebraska 2nd | Likely Democratic | Biden +7.8 | 86% |
| Nevada | Likely Democratic | Biden +7 | 86% |
| Pennsylvania | Lean Democratic | Biden +6.6 | 82% |
| Florida | Tilt Democratic | Biden +2.9 | 67% |
| Arizona | Tilt Democratic | Biden +2.8 | 67% |
| North Carolina | Tilt Democratic | Biden +1.7 | 60% |
| Maine 2nd | Tilt Democratic | Biden +1 | 55% |
| Georgia | Toss-Up | Biden +0.1 | 51% |
| Ohio | Toss-Up | Trump +0 | 50% |
| Iowa | Toss-Up | Trump +0.2 | 48% |
| Texas | Lean Republican | Trump +5.3 | 20% |
| Alaska | Likely Republican | Trump +7.8 | 12% |
| Montana | Likely Republican | Trump +8.9 | 11% |
| Utah | Likely Republican | Trump +9.3 | 9% |
*Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state in my forecast – meaning that it is the state that gets the election winner to 270 electoral votes.
Forecast Model Methodology
Unfortunately, the Facebook Likes data I used that predicted Trump’s strength in 2016 is no longer available. For this cycle, I created my statewide vote estimates through a combination of statewide demographic data and – if available – high quality polling. Unlike in 2016 – when most of the state was from low quality firms – several high quality pollsters such as ABC/Washington Post and NYT/Siena have done state-level polling, and as a result I felt comfortable including their data into my estimates.
Underlying Biden’s large national lead are important demographic shifts. Compared to Clinton, Biden is performing much better with white voters in pre-election national polling – 12 points better among white voters without a college degree and 14 points better among whites voters with a college degree. Among non-white voters, however, Biden has declined, underperforming Clinton among black and Hispanic voters by 8 and 14 points, respectively.
Biden’s gains among white voters also vary by religious group. According to an October Pew Research Survey with over ten thousand registered voters, Biden is significantly outperforming Clinton among white Catholics, while slightly improving over Clinton among white non-Evangelical Protestants, and Unaffiliated voters. He has made no improvement, however, among white Evangelical Protestants, who overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 and continue to do so in 2020.
Taking this information into account, my model expects Biden to make his largest gains in states with heavily white and non-Evangelical electorates – such as Wisconsin and New Hampshire – while making smaller gains in states with larger non-white and white Evangelical populations, like Texas and Mississippi.
In a change from 2016, I also used FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings data to create a list of the 20 best performing pollsters (12 of whom released polls in 2020) based on historical performance, including factors such as average error, number of polls conducted, and race difficulty in my evaluation. I then created statewide polling averages for states with a minimum of two high quality polls. I chose to do this instead of use FiveThirtyEight’s state polling averages for a few reasons. First, these elite pollsters historically have tended to out-perform the averages of other polls. Second, while I respect organizations like FiveThirtyEight greatly, their poll average methodology is not fully transparent, and as a result I wanted to use a simpler poll aggregation method.
For states with at least two high quality polls (14 states, including most swing states), my final projection was 50% based on the high quality polls and 50% based on my demographics based model. For states without two high quality polls, however, I relied solely on my demographics model. Below are my complete 2020 projections for all 50 states:
| State | Electoral Votes | Rating | Projected Margin | Biden Chance of Victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Solid Republican | Trump +23.4 | 0% |
| Alaska | 3 | Likely Republican | Trump +7.8 | 12% |
| Arizona | 11 | Tilt Democratic | Biden +2.8 | 67% |
| Arkansas | 6 | Solid Republican | Trump +21.1 | 0% |
| California | 55 | Solid Democratic | Biden +34.8 | 100% |
| Colorado | 9 | Solid Democratic | Biden +12.7 | 97% |
| Connecticut | 7 | Solid Democratic | Biden +21.2 | 100% |
| Delaware | 3 | Solid Democratic | Biden +17.4 | 100% |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Solid Democratic | Biden +88.2 | 100% |
| Florida | 29 | Tilt Democratic | Biden +2.9 | 67% |
| Georgia | 16 | Toss-Up | Biden +0.1 | 51% |
| Hawaii | 4 | Solid Democratic | Biden +36.1 | 100% |
| Idaho | 4 | Solid Republican | Trump +23.4 | 0% |
| Illinois | 20 | Solid Democratic | Biden +23.6 | 100% |
| Indiana | 11 | Solid Republican | Trump +11.5 | 5% |
| Iowa | 6 | Toss-Up | Trump +0.2 | 48% |
| Kansas | 6 | Solid Republican | Trump +13 | 3% |
| Kentucky | 8 | Solid Republican | Trump +23 | 0% |
| Louisiana | 8 | Solid Republican | Trump +15 | 1% |
| Maine | 2 | Solid Democratic | Biden +13.4 | 95% |
| Maine 1st Congressional District | 1 | Solid Democratic | Biden +25.9 | 100% |
| Maine 2nd Congressional District | 1 | Tilt Democratic | Biden +1 | 55% |
| Maryland | 10 | Solid Democratic | Biden +31.3 | 100% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Solid Democratic | Biden +36.5 | 100% |
| Michigan | 16 | Likely Democratic | Biden +7.5 | 87% |
| Minnesota | 10 | Likely Democratic | Biden +10.6 | 93% |
| Mississippi | 6 | Solid Republican | Trump +14.9 | 1% |
| Missouri | 10 | Solid Republican | Trump +11.4 | 5% |
| Montana | 3 | Likely Republican | Trump +8.9 | 11% |
| Nebraska | 2 | Solid Republican | Trump +16.2 | 1% |
| Nebraska 1st/3rd Congressional Districts | 2 | Solid Republican | Trump +35.9 | 0% |
| Nebraska 2nd Congressional District | 1 | Likely Democratic | Biden +7.8 | 86% |
| Nevada | 6 | Likely Democratic | Biden +7 | 86% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Likely Democratic | Biden +11.3 | 92% |
| New Jersey | 14 | Solid Democratic | Biden +20.6 | 100% |
| New Mexico | 5 | Solid Democratic | Biden +12.9 | 98% |
| New York | 29 | Solid Democratic | Biden +28.8 | 100% |
| North Carolina | 15 | Tilt Democratic | Biden +1.7 | 60% |
| North Dakota | 3 | Solid Republican | Trump +26 | 0% |
| Ohio | 18 | Toss-Up | Trump +0 | 50% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Solid Republican | Trump +30.5 | 0% |
| Oregon | 7 | Solid Democratic | Biden +19.5 | 100% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Lean Democratic | Biden +6.6 | 82% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Solid Democratic | Biden +24.6 | 100% |
| South Carolina | 9 | Solid Republican | Trump +9.6 | 6% |
| South Dakota | 3 | Solid Republican | Trump +21 | 0% |
| Tennessee | 11 | Solid Republican | Trump +20.5 | 0% |
| Texas | 38 | Lean Republican | Trump +5.3 | 20% |
| Utah | 6 | Likely Republican | Trump +9.3 | 9% |
| Vermont | 3 | Solid Democratic | Biden +38.2 | 100% |
| Virginia | 13 | Solid Democratic | Biden +10.7 | 95% |
| Washington | 12 | Solid Democratic | Biden +24 | 100% |
| West Virginia | 5 | Solid Republican | Trump +34.8 | 0% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Likely Democratic | Biden +9.4 | 90% |
| Wyoming | 3 | Solid Republican | Trump +36.8 | 0% |
Note: the 12 pollsters I included in my forecast were ABC News/Washington Post, IBD/TIPP, Muhlenberg College, Siena College/New York Times Upshot, Selzer & Co., Cygnal, Research Co., MassINC Polling Group, Marquette University Law School, Data Orbital, SurveyUSA, and Monmouth University.
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